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Back從城隍廟算盤看1128 退休學者林健正籲選民善用手中的選票算盤
從城隍廟算盤看1128  退休學者林健正籲選民善用手中的選票算盤
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自由时报22 minutes agoPolitics3 min readChinaView translation

從城隍廟算盤看1128 退休學者林健正籲選民善用手中的選票算盤

陽明交大退休學者分析國會多數、兩岸關係與大罷免三筆帳,呼籲選民在投票日替各黨算總帳

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陽明交大退休教授林健正發文籲選民善用選票,將1128地方選舉視為算總帳之日。他列舉國會多數強勢作為、兩岸關係分寸與2025年綠營大罷免失敗三筆帳,呼籲選民在投票日替各黨算總帳,強調政黨權力來自人民,人民也能收回。

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Why It Matters

台灣地方選舉倒數20天,陽明交大退休教授林健正發文,以城隍廟大算盤比喻選票,呼籲選民在投票日替各黨算總帳。文章回顧2014年太陽花運動與食安風暴導致國民黨慘敗,2018年年金改革與一例一休政策爭議導致民進黨重大挫敗,並列舉2026年選民要算的三筆帳:國會多數強勢作為、兩岸關係分寸、2025年綠營大罷免全數未通過。

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台灣地方選舉倒數20天,陽明交大退休教授林健正發文提到,城隍廟裡高掛的大算盤,寫著「人有千算,天則一算」。而民主社會裡,人民手中的選票就是另一把算盤。神明的帳算在身後,選民的帳則算在每一次選舉中。政黨的作為合不合理,人民都睜大眼睛在看,到了投票日,便替各黨算一次總帳。政黨的權力來自人民,人民也能收回。

台灣再20天就要選出地方縣市首長及民意代表,林健正認為,台灣的選民同樣算過好幾次帳。2014年的太陽花運動,加上食安風暴與執政聲望低迷,國民黨在年底地方選舉慘敗。2018年,換成民進黨完全執政,年金改革、一例一休等政策爭議不斷,韓流席捲全台,民進黨遭逢重大挫敗。到2026年,他舉2026年選民要算的3筆帳,第一筆,是國會多數的強勢作為,2024年國會職權修法在爭議中通過,引發「青鳥」上街,憲法法庭後來宣告部分違憲;總統提名的大法官、監察委員、NCC委員一再遭到封殺,獨立機關運作陷入困境;今年度總預算一度創下預算會期未審的首例,行政院提出的1.25兆元國防特別預算也一再卡關,最後以7800億元上限三讀。

第二筆,是兩岸關係的分寸。國民黨團總召傅崐萁2024年率17位藍委訪中,會見中共全國政協主席王滬寧;國民黨主席鄭麗文今年4月與習近平舉行「鄭習會」,以「九二共識、反對台獨」為共同基礎;加上國防特別條例刪除「中共軍事威脅」字眼,被批評過度親中,引起社會對國家安全的疑慮,部分藍營參選人更因此軟切割。

第三筆,是2025年綠營支持的大罷免全數未通過,執政黨遭受重大挫敗,也被批評激化社會對立;大法官等人事案被否決。但在此氛圍下,民進黨台北市長候選人沈伯洋掀起「洋流」;支持者視之為對國會多數的反彈,批評者認為只是網路聲勢。如今選民的算盤握在每個人手中,結果如何,1128見分曉。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 1128地方選舉將產生新的地方縣市首長及民意代表,各政黨將根據選舉結果調整政治策略。

    Very likely · Within days

Open Questions

  • 1128地方選舉最終結果將如何?
  • 各黨在選舉中的具體表現與得失將如何?

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