The latest report from the Washington think tanks Institute for Warfare (ISW) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) pointed out that China has recently deployed more than 100 navy and coast guard ships in the Western Pacific, suspected of simulating encirclement and isolation of Taiwan without announcing military exercises. Chen Guanting, a member of the Legislative Yuan's Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee and a legislator of the Democratic Progressive Party, said today (10th) that China's military pressure on Taiwan is undergoing structural changes, especially from the significant reduction in military aircraft activities and the maintenance of deployment of warships to the sharp increase in the activities of coast guard and other official vessels. It can be seen that China is gradually strengthening its normal maritime pressure capabilities and changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait step by step.
Chen Guanting pointed out that the Communist Army has recently integrated the forces of three theaters in the east, north and south, deployed four high-sea task forces between Taiwan and Guam, and combined with the navy and coast guard forces around Taiwan to form a two-tiered military deployment, which reflects that China has begun to train cross-theater joint operations and high-sea blockade capabilities in an attempt to prevent external forces from intervening in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In particular, when such large-scale military deployments are gradually integrated into daily activities, it will also increase the difficulty for Taiwan and its international partners to identify rising crises, shortening the time for early warning and response.
Chen Guanting further pointed out that observing the changes in China's military pressure on Taiwan in recent years, the trends in the activities of military aircraft, warships and coast guard ships are particularly noteworthy. As of mid-August this year, Communist aircraft had made 1,763 sorties around Taiwan, a decrease of 51.1% compared with the same period last year; the detection record of Communist warships only decreased by 4.9%, but the detection record of Chinese official ships increased from 183 to 457, an increase of 149.7%. He analyzed that military aircraft intruded into the air defense identification zone as a one-time deterrent and could quickly adjust the frequency of activities, but warships and coast guard ships maintained their maritime presence through long-term patrols, cooperating with China's so-called "normalized law enforcement patrols" to expand their jurisdictional claims.
Chen Guanting suggested that when observing China's military deployment around Taiwan, we must understand it from the perspective of long-term trends. The maritime situation presented by different fleets and different missions at a specific time may be just a "section" of China's normal military deployment. However, since former U.S. House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, China has repeatedly launched targeted military exercises around Taiwan and blurred the boundaries between normal patrols and military blockades through various gray areas to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
However, Chen Guanting also emphasized that in recent years, the national army has continued to strengthen its ability to deal with different military situations through the Han Kuang exercise and various combat readiness exercises. He believes that the Chinese military can properly deal with China's large-scale military exercises and daily military intrusions, and incorporate relevant scenarios into combat readiness exercises to test sea and air defense, joint operations and rapid response capabilities to ensure security across the Taiwan Strait.
Chen Guanting said, "China can try to normalize military threats, but Taiwan will never accept threats as the status quo." Faced with China's continued changes in the security environment, Taiwan must remain highly vigilant and simultaneously improve the equipment and law enforcement capabilities of the Coast Guard and regional security cooperation to ensure that the Coast Guard and the national military have the ability to respond to China's increasingly frequent gray zone intrusions and ensure Taiwan's maritime security and law enforcement sovereignty.
