New Yalu Bridge opened 12 years late... China gained influence, North Korea gained practical benefit.

(Beijing = Yonhap News) Correspondent Jeong Seong-jo = With the official opening of the New Yalu Bridge, 12 years after completion, which was once called the 'symbol of North Korea-China disharmony', the normalization of North Korea-China relations, which had been somewhat estranged due to close ties between North Korea and Russia, has accelerated.

The New Yalu Bridge, which connects Sinuiju, North Korea, and Dandong, Liaoning Province, China, was completed in 2014.

The Sinuiju-Dandong passage has played a key role in North Korea-China trade, but the old 'single-track' North Korea-China Friendship Bridge (Yalnokgang Railroad Bridge), built in 1943, was limited to one-way travel by car or train. A new logistics network was needed.

The New Yalu Bridge was designed as a large pier with four lanes, a width of 33 meters, and a total length of 3,026 meters. Construction began in late 2010 during the tenure of North Korean National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il, and was completed in 2014, three years later.

The bridge construction project suffered from differences of opinion from the beginning.

North Korea wanted to build a bridge close to downtown Sinuiju, but China pushed for a plan that would connect Dandong New District with South Sinuiju.

As China's plan was adopted, the bridge was completed with China covering the construction cost of 2.22 billion yuan (about 440 billion won), but North Korea continued to postpone the construction of the connecting road and customs office.

Meanwhile, North Korea-China relations have experienced ups and downs. As China participated in the international community's sanctions against North Korea targeting North Korea's nuclear development, exchanges between North Korea and China were greatly reduced shortly after the bridge was completed.

There were some observations that communication between North Korea and China might be revitalizing with the phase of dialogue between North Korea and China during the 'first Trump term', but North Korea-China relations were cold until recently due to the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea's border closure, and subsequent closeness between North Korea and Russia.

However, as North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un's visit to China took place in September last year, signs of changes in North Korea-China relations became visible, and as Chinese President Xi Jinping visited North Korea in June this year and promised to revitalize exchanges in various fields, including economy, trade, and people-to-people traffic, North Korea-China relations entered a recovery phase again.

The New Yalu River Bridge was opened amidst this trend.

As for the reason why the bridge was opened 12 years late, experts suggest that it is because North Korea and China tried to secure leadership in relations according to their own calculations.

Kim Gyu-beom, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, explained in a report that "there is a possibility that a certain agreement has been reached between the two countries surrounding the economic differences and conflicts that have accumulated in recent years," referring to the fact that the New Yalu Bridge, which did not open in 2018-2019 when North Korea-China relations were amicable, has only now been opened.

Trade between North Korea and China is usually structured as a surplus for China (a deficit for North Korea), and it is assumed that there may have been some compromise regarding the expansion of imports of North Korean products or the allowance of labor exports and toll processing channels to obtain North Korea's foreign currency.

Jeong Eun-i, director of the North Korea Research Department at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said in a recent report, "In past North Korea-China trade, there have been cases of policy-adjusted terms of trade, such as China supplying crude oil to North Korea at a friendly price that is significantly lower than the international price."

This analysis, which raises the possibility that China may have made some 'concessions' to North Korea, is related to the closeness between North Korea and Russia that deepened during the recent war in Ukraine.

Kang Joon-young, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said, "As North Korea leaned toward Russia after the Ukraine War, China attempted to restore its influence over North Korea, and with the opening of the New Yalu River Bridge, China's influence over North Korea appears to have been restored to a certain extent. North Korea will continue to pursue intermediary interests between China and Russia."

Director Jeong Eun-i said that China showed ‘considerable discomfort and surprise’ over the opening of the Dumen River automobile bridge between North Korea and Russia last month. It is said that China, which has been spending 200 million yuan (approximately 40 billion won) in annual maintenance costs while the bridge was not opened, would not have been happy with the North Korea-Russia bridge opening first.

The North-Russia automobile bridge, which restricted the entry and exit of large ships, also added an additional obstacle to China's efforts to advance into the ocean through the Duman River.

Compared to the Duman River automobile bridge in North Korea and Russia, the 'weight' of the New Yalu River Bridge is much larger.

According to Director Jeong Eun-i, the Duman River Automobile Bridge is a two-lane bridge with a width of 7 to 10 meters and a length of 0.8 to 1 km, and has the capacity to handle about 300 vehicles per day.

The new Yalu Bridge is wide with four lanes in both directions, and the throughput capacity is more than 10 times that of large trucks.

While Hassan, the Russian entrance to the Dumen River Car Bridge, is a village with a population of around 1,000, Dandong has a population of over 2 million and is connected to major Chinese metropolitan areas by high-speed rail.

Despite this 'weight difference', some interpret that China's opening ceremony of the New Yalu Bridge at a scale and level matching the precedent of the Duman River Automobile Bridge is an attempt to strengthen long-term influence by accepting North Korea's balanced diplomacy between China and North Korea in the short term.

Moon Il-hyun, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, said that the possibility of dialogue between North Korea and the United States around the Shenzhen Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, is being discussed in November, saying, "China can now say to the United States that we have an influence card against North Korea, and that North Korea is economically dependent on China."

Professor Moon said, "Among the reasons why North Korea hesitated to open the bridge was the concern that it would provide a way for the Chinese military to enter in a short period of time in case of an emergency. The opening of the bridge may have been because North Korea had its own preparedness plan for military and security issues or because a consensus was created between North Korea and China. If the New Yalu Bridge was a bridge that had worsened the relationship between the two countries, it now has the meaning of restoring relations."

Experts pointed out that China's determination to denuclearize North Korea and comply with sanctions against North Korea has been put to the test.

Professor Kang Joon-young said, "North Korea's goal is to secure the status of a nuclear state, but China maintains the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as its official position, making coordination with North Korea difficult." He added, "There may be concerns from the United States and the international community that trade through the new bridge effectively neutralizes sanctions against North Korea, and this is a challenge for China."

Professor Moon added, “If North Korea-China logistics become more active, goods subject to sanctions may cross over, knowingly or unknowingly, and the New Yalu Bridge may become a threshold for gray area trade.” He added, “For North Korea, there is nothing to receive from the United States with just the New Yalu Bridge, so the urgency for dialogue between North Korea and the United States has decreased, and North Korea’s dependence on China has increased.”