
美國榮鼎集團負責中國經濟與金融市場的懷特指出,中國投資效率低下、累積數兆美元壞帳,導致無力刺激內需,經濟成長完全依賴出口。儘管加大先進製造業投資,但該產業為資本密集型,就業貢獻有限,投資與消費失衡將使中國產品流向海外,加劇全球貿易緊張。
AI-generated summary
中國房地產市場自五年前開始顯著放緩,經濟增長依賴投資驅動模式。過去十年銀行信貸激增,導致產能過剩和壞帳積累。當局嘗試透過先進製造業升級轉型,但該產業就業貢獻有限。
美智庫榮鼎集團指出,中國高科技產業難抵房市低迷,經濟將更依賴出口並加劇貿易風險。(法新社檔案照)
榮鼎集團懷特︰中國過度投資、內需失衡 加劇全球貿易緊張
〔編譯盧永山/綜合報導〕美國榮鼎集團(Rhodium Group)負責中國經濟與金融市場的懷特(Logan Wright)表示,由於投資效率低下,加上累積數兆美元的壞帳,中國已無力刺激家庭和企業的內需,經濟成長完全依賴出口,所推動的新興戰略產業也無法解決經濟中投資和消費持續失衡的問題,北京當局面臨的挑戰主要在於:如果無法刺激國內需求,貿易緊張局勢將不可避免。
懷特九月下旬即將發表最新著作《破碎的中國》,他近日接受《美國之音》訪問表示,該書是對中國經濟,尤其是從五年前房地產市場崩盤以來,經濟成長顯著放緩的現狀進行診斷和解釋。
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懷特指出,中國是投資驅動型經濟體,其經濟問題的根源是二〇〇〇年代開始的金融業擴張,當時銀行業聚集資本和引導儲戶資金,以支應各種基礎建設、工廠,並在外資的協助下提升製造業產能。但之後這些基礎建設的投資效益式微,無法帶來新的經濟活動,卻導致銀行信貸激增。
根據統計,在二〇〇八年至二〇一六年全球金融危機之後的這段期間,中國新增銀行信貸約占全球的三分之一,信貸占GDP(國內生產總值)的比重也幾乎翻倍。信貸在如此短的時間內激增,可說是前所未見。懷特說,中國現在面臨的許多後果,都是因為過去發放的許多貸款,如今都到了償還期限。
加碼投入先進製造業 增加就業有限
在財政吃緊下,中國希望對家庭消費課稅,卻遭遇困難,又不敢改革國有和地方政府企業。面對這個困境,北京當局卻加倍投入投資驅動型成長,專注於先進製造業,但先進製造業、人工智慧、機器人等新興戰略產業的問題在於,他們是資本密集產業,而非勞動密集產業,提供的就業機會不多。
若中國經濟中投資和消費之間的失衡繼續存在,中國生產的所有產品最終將流向海外,而不是中國國內,這將加劇中國與世界其他地區貿易緊張局勢。
一手掌握經濟脈動 點我訂閱自由財經Youtube頻道
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
中國將在未來數月內加大出口退稅或貨幣寬鬆力度以刺激出口
Likely · Within months
美國或歐盟將在未來六個月內對中國產品發起新一輪貿易調查
Possible · Within months

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