By 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach more than 2.8 billion kilowatts
What does it mean to add about 1 billion more "scenery" in 5 years (decoding the "15th Five-Year Plan" special plan)
Not long ago, the State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan Carbon Peaking Action Plan", which clarified that "by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach more than 2.8 billion kilowatts."
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country built the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, and new energy achieved high-quality development. By the end of 2025, my country's cumulative grid-connected wind power and solar power generation capacity will reach 1.84 billion kilowatts. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, wind and solar installed capacity is planned to be added by about 1 billion kilowatts, and the average annual new grid-connected installed capacity target is about 200 million kilowatts. Why was this goal determined? How to promote goal achievement? The reporter conducted the interview.
New situation determines new tasks
Improving both quality and quantity to promote the realization of the “double carbon” goal
How to understand the development goal of more than 2.8 billion kilowatts of installed capacity?
Looking towards the future, achieving the "double carbon" goal requires "quantity" support.
my country has made it clear that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25% by 2030 and more than 30% by 2035. It strives to achieve a total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation of 3.6 billion kilowatts in 2035. To achieve the "double carbon" strategic goal, energy is the main battlefield, and new energy sources such as wind and solar are the main force.
"The '15th Five-Year Plan' is a critical period for achieving the goal of independent contribution." Su Xinyi, deputy director of the Clean Energy Research Institute of the General Institute of Electric Power Planning and Design, said that the new situation and requirements determine that the large-scale and high-quality development of new energy is an important task for the energy industry during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.
On the one hand, the recent international energy security situation has become more complex and severe. Since the beginning of this year, geopolitical conflicts have continued to disrupt the global oil and gas supply chain, and uncertainty in the security of energy channels has increased significantly. Countries have accelerated the process of replacing fossil energy with renewable energy.
On the other hand, my country's electricity demand will still maintain rigid growth. New drivers of electricity growth represented by high-tech and equipment manufacturing, computing facilities, and charging and swapping services will develop rapidly. Residents' daily electricity consumption will also increase with the improvement of household electrification.
The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration stated that it is necessary to comprehensively consider the needs of energy security supply and green and low-carbon transformation, maintain a reasonable scale and pace of development, maintain steady growth in throughput, continue to increase the proportion of renewable energy supply, and lay a solid foundation for low-carbon transformation to achieve the carbon peak goal as scheduled.
Based on the current situation, achieving this development goal requires "qualitative" improvement.
Since the "14th Five-Year Plan", my country's new energy sources represented by wind and solar have developed at an unprecedented speed, with the cumulative installed capacity reaching 3.4 times as of the end of 2020.
"With the rapid growth of new energy installed capacity and power generation, issues such as consumption pressure and market returns have become increasingly prominent. The industry is shifting from 'struggle for scale' to 'struggle for quality and efficiency.'" Su Xinyi said that the goal of adding approximately 1 billion kilowatts of wind and solar installed capacity not only leaves room for expected development of the industry, but also helps improve the market competitiveness and development efficiency of new energy.
Support capacity is still insufficient
Stand up and be reliable, and gradually realize safe and reliable replacement of traditional energy sources
At the 500,000-kilowatt optical-storage integration demonstration base in Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, 16 energy storage technologies are "competing on the same stage." Different types of energy storage equipment such as semi-solid batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and solid-state batteries are lined up next to the photovoltaic array for comparative testing.
"Unlike ordinary photovoltaic power stations, ours here is more like a comprehensive laboratory for energy storage technology, laying the foundation for the large-scale promotion and iteration of subsequent energy storage technology in high-altitude areas." said Zhang Hao, assistant station manager of the Hengyuan Project Department of the Hainan Branch of the State Power Investment Corporation Yellow River Company.
Why are there so many energy storage technologies being tested in one base? Behind this is the gap between the proportion of new energy installed capacity and supporting capabilities.
Zhang Lin, director of the Planning and Development Department of the China Electricity Council, said that new energy power generation, mainly wind and solar, is intermittent, random, and volatile, and has not yet formed an effective replacement for traditional power sources. There is an urgent need to enhance the reliable output, active support, and coordinated adjustment capabilities of new energy to support larger-scale development.
From the power source side, the ability of new energy sources to provide effective power generation during peak hours is still insufficient. For example, during the evening peak hours of electricity consumption from 18:00 to 22:00, there is no light, and photovoltaics basically do not generate electricity; and wind power is not enough to ensure output during the peak load period in summer.
From the energy storage side, current new energy storage, especially electrochemical energy storage, has a short energy storage time and is difficult to cover the evening peak gap. According to statistics from the China Electricity Council, as of the end of 2025, the average energy storage time of electrochemical energy storage is 2.53 hours, and the proportion of electrochemical energy storage installed capacity of less than 2 hours is as high as 70%, which is difficult to support the actual needs of 4-6 hours in the evening peak.
During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, how can new energy achieve larger-scale and higher-proportion development while better serving the safe, reliable and cost-effective operation of the power system? Zhang Lin said that in terms of increment, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of system-friendly new energy power stations; in terms of stock, it is necessary to combine the upgrading and transformation of old wind and photovoltaic power stations, and encourage network-related performance to be steadily and orderly improved through reconstruction and expansion, rational allocation of storage, etc.; in terms of technology, it is necessary to increase the research and development and application of advanced technological equipment and increase the proportion of long-term energy storage.
The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration stated that we must adhere to the principle of establishing first and then breaking, and breaking and establishing simultaneously to further promote the "establishment" and "reliability" of renewable energy, and gradually realize the safe and reliable replacement of traditional energy.
Absorption capacity still needs to be improved
Optimize development layout according to local conditions and accelerate the development of non-electricity utilization
At Huaneng Kubuqi's "Shagehuang" base, rows of solar panel arrays are spread out on the yellow sand, like a shining "blue ocean."
How big is this "sea"? "It takes half an hour to drive from the south to the north. This is only about 1/8 of the total planned installed capacity." Hao Wenyi, general manager of Huaneng Kubuqi Power Generation Co., Ltd., said that the total planned installed capacity of the project is 15.14 million kilowatts, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2030.
The construction of the "Shagehuang" large base is one of the necessary supports to achieve large-scale development of scenery in the future. The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration said that it will focus on optimizing the layout of renewable energy power development based on the resource endowment, load distribution, power grid conditions and industrial foundation of different regions, adhering to both centralized and distributed development.
How to lay it out specifically?
In terms of centralized development, the "Three Norths" region, as the main battlefield for my country's new energy development, will focus on the "Sha Ge Huang" to further promote the construction of new energy bases. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, wind power and photovoltaic bases in the "Three North" regions plan to add more than 370 million kilowatts of installed capacity.
In terms of distributed development, focusing on the central and southeastern regions and other four key areas such as industry and commerce, transportation, construction and agriculture, we will promote the multi-scenario diversified development of distributed new energy and the intensive utilization of space. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the national distributed new energy plan plans to add more than 300 million kilowatts of installed capacity.
How to absorb it?
"The proportion of new energy power generation installed capacity will exceed 50% in 2030, and we cannot rely solely on the power grid for consumption." Li Shaoyan, chief engineer of the New Energy Research Institute of the General Institute of Hydropower Planning and Design, said that when the power grid is tight, using wind and solar hydrogen production, heating and heating, etc., can not only reduce the pressure on the power grid, but also provide new scenarios and tracks for the non-electric use of wind and solar power.
Currently, non-electricity utilization of renewable energy accounts for only about 1% of my country's energy consumption. Compared with the deep decarbonization needs of fuels, raw materials, and heat in key industries such as industry, transportation, and construction, there is still much room for growth. Non-electricity utilization is an important breakthrough for renewable energy consumption.
The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration stated that while giving full play to the power grid's consumption capacity, it will actively expand non-electric utilization methods of renewable energy and enhance the ability and development autonomy of diversified on-site conversion and utilization of renewable energy.
Reporter Wang Yunshan
"People's Daily" (September 07, 2026, Page 02)
