The expert predicted that the Bank of Russia key rate will remain at 14% with a probability of 70%

At the meeting of the Bank of Russia on September 11, most likely, the key rate will remain at the current level - 14 percent per annum, said financial expert, head of the NIIPU laboratory on the ontology of cognitive digital technological sovereignty, chairman of the Committee on Digital Technological Sovereignty of the CIS Alexander Grif. He shared his opinion with Lenta.ru.

“The first scenario is to keep the rate at 14 percent. The probability is 70 percent. Citizens' expectations regarding future price growth have decreased but remain high, while enterprises' price expectations, on the contrary, have increased. Therefore, the Bank of Russia has reason to take a break and make sure that inflationary pressure is really weakening. For the population, this means maintaining expensive loans and market mortgages, but at the same time attractive interest rates on deposits. For businesses, money for ongoing operations and expansion of production will remain expensive, which will deter investment,” Grief said.

According to the expert, the probability of a rate reduction to 13.75 percent is 25 percent. This will be possible if the regulator sees that the summer acceleration in price growth is mostly temporary, and demand and business activity are weakening more than expected. A slight reduction in the rate would support borrowers and become a signal for a gradual reduction in the cost of new loans. At the same time, a mortgage will not become noticeably more affordable as a result of one such decision, and the profitability of new deposits may begin to decline.

“The third scenario is a rate increase, approximately to 14.5 percent. The probability is 5 percent,” Grif noted.

The expert emphasized that the main thing is not only the decision this Friday, but also a signal about the next steps. Banks take into account the future trajectory of the rate, so the terms of loans and deposits may change even if it remains the same. For a sustainable reduction in the cost of borrowed money, what is important is not a one-time small step, but a confident slowdown in inflation. This means prices will rise more slowly, rather than necessarily fall.