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Back爭取140億美元對台軍售案 官員示警:美方延宕恐致產線推遲數年
爭取140億美元對台軍售案 官員示警:美方延宕恐致產線推遲數年
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自由时报1 hour agoDefense6 min readChina

爭取140億美元對台軍售案 官員示警:美方延宕恐致產線推遲數年

我國力爭9套NASAMS與百餘枚飛彈,資深官員憂心全球軍工產能爆單,台灣恐面臨排隊骨牌效應。

Quick Look

美國國會議員與退役將領呼籲川普政府儘快知會140億美元對台軍售案。資深官員警告,在全球軍工產能爆單情況下,若美方延遲宣佈,台灣的交貨期程恐被推遲數年之久。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

這筆高達140億美元的對台軍售案在2026年1月獲國會預先批准,清單涵蓋防空與反無人機裝備。

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我國已向川普政府爭取增售9套 NASAMS 系統,並搭配 339 枚各型美製防空飛彈,讓全台的 NASAMS 總數達到 12 套。這項規劃將有效反制共軍近年頻繁演練的巡弋飛彈與無人機蜂群戰術。(圖:取自Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace網站)

〔記者羅添斌/台北報導〕美國國會議員與退役將領近日強烈呼籲川普政府,儘快向國會正式知會總額高達 140 億美元(折合新台幣約 4550 億元) 的對台軍售案。這筆早在 2026 年 1 月就獲國會預先批准的超級大單,因美中政治角力等因素遲遲未正式宣佈。熟悉美台軍售實務的資深政府官員警告,在當前全球武器大搶單、原廠產能嚴重爆單的極端情況下,美國政府只要晚一個月正式宣佈,台灣面臨的延宕絕對不是和緩的「多等一個月」,而是極可能被直接往後推遲半年、一年,甚至數年之久。

這筆高達 4550 億元台幣的軍售清單,焦點完全集中在防空、反彈道飛彈及反無人機的「不對稱作戰」戰力,包含增購防空主力的愛國者三型增程型飛彈(PAC-3 MSE),以及能精準截擊的「國家先進地對空飛彈系統」(NASAMS)。此外,還包括首度曝光、具備 360 度全方位偵測能力的 LTAMDS 最新型雷達感測器,與 IBCS 整合防空與飛彈防禦指揮系統,要幫台灣打造出更綿密的「隱形防護罩」。同時,能有效反制共軍低空灰色地帶威脅的車載式無人機反制系統也名列其中。

PAC-3 MSE攔截敵方彈道飛彈的作戰效益相當優異,這是各國爭相向美國提交採購案的關鍵原因。圖為美軍的愛國者三型增程型飛彈(PAC-3 MSE)發射瞬間。(美軍DVIDS網站)

資深官員今天指出,按照美國軍售(FMS)的嚴格法制流程,必須先由國務院正式宣佈並知會國會,美軍才能開始跟各國政府進行項目與金額的細節議商,最終雙方簽署發價書(LOA)。等到發價書簽完、台灣匯出頭期款後,美軍才會把訂單發交給雷神、洛克希德·馬丁等國防廠商排入生產線。換句話說,「發價書的簽署順序」才是市場排隊的唯一憑證,軍工市場向來是認單不認人,在還沒有拿到正式生產合約前,原廠絕對不可能幫台灣保留產線位置。

然而,這種機構化的「先簽先贏」規則在當前全球產能塞爆的環境下,引發了恐怖的骨牌效應。資深官員指出,現代先進飛彈與雷達都是採取「批量生產(Batch Production)」,原廠會把累積到一定數量的訂單集中在特定年度採購原料並開線組裝。如果台灣因為前端政治知會拖延一個月,剛好錯過了某個特定批次的生產排程窗口,原廠不會為台灣單獨開線,而是直接把台灣的訂單丟到下一個、甚至是數年後的生產批次。加上烏俄衝突與北約東擴,歐洲各國正捧著現金瘋狂搶單,台灣一旦錯失先機,要再插隊可說是難上加難。

美參議院跨黨派台灣連線共同主席蒂利斯、斯洛特金等人直言,台灣早就為這筆 4550 億元的案子編好預算,如果美方遲遲不宣佈,台灣的預算將面臨年底被強迫繳回國庫的危機,這會嚴重打亂台灣將國防支出提升至 GDP 5% 的防衛布局。美方政要與退將齊聲呼籲,這批防空大盾多數不是美軍現役急需的項目,根本不影響美軍自身的全球庫存,白宮不該把它當作美中談判的籌碼,必須立即放行,否則美方每耽誤一個月,就會讓台灣的防空網出現長達數年無法補足的安全空窗期。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 台灣防衛預算若未獲美方宣佈知會將面臨年底繳回國庫危機

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 川普政府何時會正式向國會知會此筆軍售案?
  • 台灣的國防預算能否順利執行避免被繳回國庫?

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