The attitude of the prospective speaker of the US House of Representatives towards Taiwan is exposed! Expert: The chance of visiting Taiwan is low, but we will push for 14 billion arms sales

As the U.S. midterm elections come to an end, the Democratic Party is determined to regain control of the House of Representatives. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is regarded as the favorite to become the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, has attracted much attention for his Taiwan policy and future trends. Experts point out that although Jeffress met with former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and supported a number of pro-Taiwan bills, he probably will not follow the example of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Nancy Pelosi) in making a high-profile visit to Taiwan.

Hong Kong's "South China Morning Post" reported on the 6th that Jeffries announced his bid for the speakership on the 4th and is expected to be officially elected on the first day of the new parliament in January next year. Jeffress met then-President Tsai Ing-wen, who was visiting the United States, in New York in March 2023, and described the dialogue between the two sides on security, economic interests, and democratic freedoms as "very constructive." In addition, he also voted for the "Protect Taiwan Act" passed in February this year. The bill explicitly stipulates that the United States will restrict China's participation in certain international financial institutions if Beijing poses a potential threat to Taiwan.

However, analysts believe that Jeffress's past record does not mean that he will follow in Pelosi's footsteps. In August 2022, then Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan, which triggered China to hold large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, and U.S.-China relations deteriorated rapidly.

Xin Qiang, deputy director of the American Studies Center at Fudan University in Shanghai, pointed out that Pelosi's high-profile visit to Taiwan is "a special case" and not a precedent that future House leaders will necessarily follow. He emphasized that the visit also triggered criticism within the US political "establishment", which believed that this move would increase the risk of conflict with Beijing and would lead US politicians to "show greater caution and restraint" when visiting Taiwan in the future.

An international relations expert who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue said that judging from Jeffries' legislative record and public remarks, he is a "relatively rational and moderate political figure." Compared with Pelosi, he has less personal emotional ties to Taiwan and less ideological hostility to Beijing, making the chances of him visiting Taiwan in an official capacity slim.

Despite his relatively stable personal style, experts agree that support for Taiwan in the U.S. Congress has been highly institutionalized and will not undergo a fundamental change. Xinqiang pointed out that support for Taiwan is essentially a cross-party consensus in Congress. A more cautious and restrained speaker may have a positive impact; on the contrary, if the speaker is extreme and impulsive, it may seriously damage U.S.-China relations.

Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, believes that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan that year was a combination of the political atmosphere and personal preferences at the time. When the Biden administration tried to block her trip, it aroused Congress's sensitivity to the separation of powers, which in turn prompted Congress to declare independence to the executive branch through the visit to Taiwan. Zhuang Jiaying emphasized that there is currently no sign that Jefferies has plans to visit Taiwan, and expected that Washington will maintain broad policy continuity in supporting Taiwan's defense.

Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. S. S. S. S. S. S. School of International Relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, also agreed that Congress has strong cross-party support for Taiwan. Congress controlled by the Democratic Party will be more active on Taiwan issues and strictly examine the Trump administration’s compromising attitude towards Beijing on issues such as human rights and technology export controls.

Regarding the US$14 billion arms sales to Taiwan currently shelved by the Trump administration, Tang Anzhu expects that Congress will encourage or pressure the executive branch to notify Congress as soon as possible of its intention to sell this batch of equipment that has completed the processing process.