After the "change of weather" in the US Congress: It is difficult to retain the Secretary of Defense, and the war in Iran adds another variable

The results of the U.S. midterm elections have been released, and the Democratic Party has set off a "blue wave" to regain the majority position in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Trump administration's policy space will be significantly narrowed in the next two years. The Republican Party points to the war in Iran as the root cause of its defeat. Vice President Vance bluntly stated that this conflict has cost the Republican Party, and the departure of Defense Secretary Hegseth has become the focus.

After the election, whether the U.S. policy toward Iran will change, whether military options are still on the table, and what the prospects for U.S.-Iran peace talks are, have become core issues of concern to all parties.

Democratic “blue wave” regains control of House and Senate

Over 70% of respondents are pessimistic about the post-election political situation in the United States

Democrats regain control of Congress, Trump administration under pressure

On November 5, local time, according to the latest vote counting results from CNN, the U.S. Democratic Party’s seat advantage in the House and Senate has further expanded. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats won 253 seats and the Republicans won 155 seats. CNN predicts that the Democratic Party will gain the largest majority of seats in the House of Representatives since the 2008 election. In the Senate, the Democrats have won 54 seats and the Republicans have won 44 seats. American public opinion generally believes that the Trump administration will face greater political pressure from the Democratic Party, and its administrative space will be significantly narrowed in the next two years.

The U.S. Axios News website stated on the 4th that the mainstream election forecasts for this year's midterm elections underestimated the strength of the Democratic Party's "blue wave", and the deviation was greater than that of the 2016 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections, and the mainstream predictions in those two years underestimated the strength of the Republican Party.

Poll shows: More than 70% of respondents are "pessimistic" about the post-election political situation in the United States

After the election results were released, domestic expectations for the post-election political situation in the United States were not optimistic.

A poll on the 5th showed that as many as 72.1% of the respondents were pessimistic about the post-election political situation in the United States, saying that "partisan fighting will intensify and policies will become more erratic." Only 14.2% of the respondents believed that the overall situation in the United States was stable and advocated that "the core interests of the two parties are consistent and major policies will basically remain unchanged."

“The war in Iran is the reason for the failure of the Republican Party”

Retaining or leaving the defense minister is a difficult problem

Differences within the United States over Iran strategy intensify

Vance: The reason we lost was because of the war in Iran

Within the Republican Party, Vice President Vance blamed the defeat directly on the war in Iran. On the 4th, Vance published a long post on social media, bluntly stating that the root cause of the Republican Party's defeat was the war in Iran.

Vance said in the article that the turnout rate of Republican voters remains at a relatively high level, but many voters who supported the Republicans in the 2024 presidential election are dissatisfied with the status quo and will support the Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. Citing a survey by a polling expert, he said the main demands of voters who turned to the Democratic Party were to end the war, focus on people's cost of living and inflation, adhere to the "America First" policy, and adjust the relationship between the United States and Israel.

Vance said that the root cause of the Republican defeat was the war in Iran, which almost everyone knows. He said that this conflict cost the Republican Party, which lost control of the Senate for the next six years, and that any discussion about the future of the Republican Party must start with this war.

American media analysts believe that Vance's post is "extraordinary" and that he is actually cutting off from Trump in order to seek to run for president in 2028. A U.S. government official said Vance's four-point agenda was his rallying cry for America's "new right," whose demands are defined as staying out of overseas conflicts, making the United States an affordable place to live and closing borders.

Iran's speaker responds to Vance: America is like a gambler

In response to Vance's statement, Iran's Islamic Parliament Speaker Qalibaf responded on the 5th that the United States is like "a gambler who keeps losing bets but can no longer leave the gambling table."

Qalibaf is Iran's chief negotiator with the United States. He wrote on social media: "The United States is standing on the edge of the cliff caused by Israel, and your boss is preparing for the next phase of war... Why don't you tell your boss these words?"

Hegseth faces impeachment pressure, but Trump still intends to keep him as defense secretary

In addition to Iran's retaliation, pressure for accountability in the United States is also rising.

According to news from the United States on the 4th, Republican lawmakers are placing the responsibility for the election defeat on Defense Secretary Hegseth. The House of Representatives may vote to impeach Hegseth as early as next week. Several Republican congressmen and staff said that Hegseth had seriously overestimated the possibility of a decisive victory for the US military in the short term, but failed to provide the White House with a clear post-war withdrawal path, and failed to forewarn the knock-on impact of the war on the domestic political economy. They said the conflict has now evolved into a quagmire, keeping the United States mired in the Middle East indefinitely and exacerbating the burden on people's lives.

It is reported that this internal strife continues even though Republican strategists in the House and Senate privately admit that the problems facing the Republican Party go far beyond this war and will take years to reverse the situation.

A source familiar with Hegseth said that Hegseth still hopes to stay in office and is ready to fight possible impeachment.

On the 5th, U.S. President Trump stated that despite receiving complaints about Hegseth, he still intends to keep him in office. Trump said in an interview with the media that day: "I fully intend to keep him in office... You know, I have received those calls about him." When asked if he would consider replacing Hegseth, he said: "No, I think he is doing a very good job."

Undecided on the direction of Iran's actions, internal divisions in the United States highlight

At the same time, differences within the U.S. government continue to expand regarding the direction of follow-up actions on the Iran issue. Trump said on the 4th that he could end the war with Iran at any time as long as he wanted.

On the same day, U.S. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said the war in Iran "must end." He said that Congress controls the federal government's "purchase bag" and this is "one of the means to prevent the president from starting a war without the consent of the American people."

Sources said that after the mid-term elections for the U.S. Congress, differences within the U.S. government over follow-up measures on the Iran issue have further intensified. Sources said that some officials urged Trump to launch a new round of strikes against Iran and then strive for peace; other officials believed that it should stop and scale down the scale of military operations.

Analysts say that the Republican Party's defeat in the midterm elections does not mean that Iran can expect peace to come. The risk of escalation of the US-Iran conflict still exists. The United States may launch a new round of strikes, or it may restart negotiations to seek an agreement.

How will the results of the US midterm elections affect the US-Iran game?

How the results of the U.S. midterm elections will affect the government's policy toward Iran, whether it will bring about personnel adjustments in key positions, and what the prospects for the U.S.-Iran peace talks will be, have become the focus of attention.

1 The question of whether Hegseth will stay or go is a difficult problem for Trump

CCTV special commentator Su Xiaohui said that the U.S. House of Representatives may vote to impeach Hegseth as early as next week, which reflects the impact of the mid-term elections on U.S. domestic politics. The Republican Party is eager to find a scapegoat, and the United States has launched military operations against Iran, and the Secretary of Defense must bear the responsibility. Hegseth's decision to stay or go is the epitome of this pressure: on the one hand, we must divert pressure, including pressure and differences within the Republican Party; on the other hand, we must also consider our own situation - if we agree to impeach Hegseth, the subsequent spearhead is likely to be directed at the president himself, and Trump's governance will be even more constrained. Currently, Trump has not given up the option of restarting military operations against Iraq, so a temporary change of generals at this time is also one of his concerns.

2 The U.S. does not rule out military options in its follow-up policy toward Iran.

From the current point of view, the military options in the US policy towards Iran are still on the table, and the so-called "exit strategy" is also being considered. Before the midterm elections, the United States repeatedly threatened to restart attacks on Iran after the elections, with the intention of forcing Iran to compromise in the negotiations. However, it failed to meet expectations and Iran still adhered to the basic conditions. If it restarts military operations, the United States also has concerns. If the deadlock in negotiations is difficult to break, the United States is considering whether it can find an opportunity to withdraw by restarting military operations. After repeated weighing, the room for maneuver in subsequent policies is extremely narrow, and it is inevitable to bear risks and costs when making choices.

3 The midterm elections are unlikely to be a watershed in U.S. policy toward Iran

Su Xiaohui analyzed that, overall, the midterm elections are unlikely to become a watershed in U.S. policy toward Iran. The United States is still highly concerned about the issue of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and it is difficult to admit that it even acquiesces to Iran's strengthening of its control over the Strait. On the nuclear issue, the United States still insists on basic conditions such as Iran handing over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. On the one hand, it responds to domestic demands and emphasizes security goals. On the other hand, it is worried that Iran's willingness to acquire nuclear weapons will further increase after this round of conflict between the United States and Iran. The current fundamentals mean that the subsequent negotiation process will be very difficult, which is also intertwined with the political calculations of Vance and others, which may further affect the 2028 election.

Producer丨Zheng Hong

Producer | Wen Fan

Editor | Dai Genhua

Reporter丨Cao Jian