After the dust of the electoral earthquake caused by the US midterm elections has settled, attention is turning to Congress, with its new composition and diverse faces. Democrats, who lavished promises on voters, face the test of translating them into policies and legislation, while Republicans, after their resounding defeat, seek to adapt as they move into the minority ranks. However, two months separate the new Congress from assuming its duties early next year, a period during which Republicans may seek to exploit what remains of their majority to pass as much of their legislative priorities as possible and President Donald Trump’s agenda.
The Washington Report programme, which is the result of cooperation between Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper and Al-Sharq Network, reviews the limits of the new Congress’ ability to curb Trump’s policies, and the possibilities of Republican rebellion against him after the electoral defeat, as well as the most prominent files on the congressional agenda during the “lame duck” period.
A majority is not enough to confront Trump
Although they control both chambers of Congress, Democrats will not be able to pass their legislative agenda without Republican cooperation. Most legislation subject to the rule of ending debate in the Senate requires the approval of sixty members, while overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
Richard Stern, vice president of the Plymouth Institute at the conservative American Freedom Foundation, explains that Democrats “will have a very large majority, but they will not reach the required number of sixty votes.” He adds: “So there will have to be some negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in Congress regarding any action they take, not to mention the fact that they will not have the two-thirds of the votes needed to override the presidential veto. “So I think we will see a possible government shutdown due to negotiations over which military activities will be funded.”
However, control of Congress gives Democrats broad oversight and political tools to confront Trump, most notably the chairmanship of committees and the power to summon administration officials and conduct investigations, in addition to controlling legislation related to government spending and approving appointments in the Senate.
Investigative journalist Mark Albert expects that the Democrats will launch a wide wave of investigations into corruption and conflicts of interest issues, noting that voters have demanded that the administration be held accountable, which will make accountability a top priority for the new Congress.
As for the former official in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Ian Russell, it is likely that these investigations will lead to changes within the ranks of the administration, saying: “I believe that the days of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth are numbered,” and he expects other ministerial reshuffles, stressing the need to hold officials accountable regardless of their party affiliations.
The Iran war stands out as one of the most complex issues in the upcoming confrontation between Congress and the White House. While the president retains broad powers to manage military operations, Congress has the authority to approve funding, giving Democrats a leverage to try to restrict war spending. Russell acknowledges the difficulty of using this card as the defense budget discussion approaches, in light of the sensitivity of any decision that may reflect on the American forces deployed in the region.
Will Republicans turn against Trump?
The most prominent challenges facing Trump may come from within the ranks of his own party. The statements of his deputy, J.D. Vance, who held the war with Iran responsible for the electoral loss, raised questions about the possibility of a rift in the relationship between the two men. Russell believes that Vance is “trying to find a way to create distance between himself and the president,” in preparation for the upcoming presidential elections.
As for Stern, he believes that the Vice President seeks to distance himself from decisions he participated in making, but he holds Trump himself responsible for the erosion of Americans’ confidence in his administration. Stern says that the president, after his tariff policies and confrontations with his opponents, “broke that trust” when he asked the Americans to support war with Iran. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth may be one of the first victims of the cracks within the Republican Party. Republican Representative Thomas Massie has pledged to submit a resolution to impeach him during the current Congress session, amid expectations that it will receive support from both parties. Russell points out Trump's tense relationship with a number of Republican senators who lost the primary elections because of his interference against them, suggesting that they will support the removal of Hegseth, who may turn into an "easy scapegoat," as he puts it.
Stern expects that the number of Republicans willing to challenge the president publicly will increase, but he rules out a mass rebellion against him, in light of the calculations of the 2028 presidential race, which may prompt many to wait.
Amid the party's efforts to reorganize its ranks, Stern believes that defeat may provide Republicans with an opportunity to redefine their political identity, speaking of the possibility of the emergence of a “new Reagan,” as he puts it. Marco Rubio is likely to be one of the most prominent contenders for the party's presidential nomination in 2028, along with Vance and other figures who may emerge over the next two years.
Last chance or early confrontation?
Before Democrats take over legislative power early next year, Republicans will retain their majority in both chambers of Congress until the end of their current term, giving them a final opportunity to pass legislation and approve appointments that may be difficult to approve after they move into the minority ranks.
Among the proposed scenarios is replacing War Minister Pete Hegseth, and approving the appointment of a successor before January, although Stern believes that talking about this possibility is still premature.
The most pressing test relates to the government funding crisis, with current funding expiring on December 11. Albert proposes two possibilities: approving temporary funding that will spare the country from a government shutdown until the new Congress is convened, or entering into a political confrontation during which the Democrats seek to extract concessions in exchange for their support. He says that the Democrats “will demand a very high price in exchange for granting their votes,” pointing out that the passage of the National Defense Authorization Act also constitutes a legislative priority during this period. However, escalation is not inevitable; Albert sees room for consensus between the two parties on a number of issues, including reforming the system of licenses and customs duties, and perhaps restricting the president’s powers to wage wars. Ultimately, the course of the relationship between Congress and the White House may depend on Trump's own calculations. Albert wonders: “Does he want to leave the White House as a president who constantly uses his veto, or does he prefer to achieve joint legislative achievements that strengthen his political legacy?”
Testing Democrats' promises
On the other hand, the Democrats face a test no less difficult than the battle to seize the majority, which is fulfilling their electoral promises. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer pledged to reduce the cost of living and fight corruption, but Stern doubts that the party's victory will be a popular mandate to implement its agenda.
He says: “The Democrats did not actually win these elections, but rather it was the Republicans who lost them,” considering that the voters’ vote was closer to punishing Trump for his policies than to adopting the Democrats’ program.
On the other hand, Russell disagrees with this characterization, stressing that the Democrats ran a disciplined election campaign that made reducing the cost of living its top priority. But he acknowledges that the transition from promises to legislation will not be easy, in light of the differences within the party regarding ways to implement its agenda, especially with the growing influence of the progressive wing and the start of early competition for the upcoming presidential elections.
