What awaits Russia, Israel, and the rest after the fall of Trump’s power? - Article in The Guardian

Warnings of a "violent" reaction to Trump after the decline of his power and loss of the congressional elections, and the potential repercussions of the results on the world and the Middle East region, in addition to the "actual" war that Russia is waging against Europe in various ways, appeared in newspapers.

We begin our tour with The Guardian newspaper and an article by Simon Tisdale, an international affairs analyst, entitled “The power of Donald Trump is declining... What awaits Russia, Israel and the rest?” In which he says that the power of US President Donald Trump is in continuous decline after the major defeat suffered by his Republican Party in the midterm congressional elections.

The writer says that the Democrats' victory was "also a victory for the world. People celebrated in many countries that had suffered pain, losses, and cruel insults at the hands of Donald Trump over the past two years of chaos and fear."

As for the Iranians, Tisdale points out that Trump's "humiliating" electoral defeat raised hopes that his "bloody war of choice" against Tehran's "oppressive" regime might end soon, but he believes that these hopes are "misplaced."

In Israel, many who voted for change last week will “welcome” the “decline” of the influence of the largest supporter of the extremist coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu, which has so far remained resilient.

Trump's defeat also constitutes "confusion" for regional calculations, especially for Israel, which relied on Trump's umbrella in its regional confrontations and expanding the scope of escalation, because curbing hawks will lead to a decline in Trump's ability to impose unilateral solutions or cover political costs for allies for free.

However, Tisdale asserts that most American policies will not witness a fundamental change until 2028. It is likely that any new Israeli government will continue to deny basic Palestinian rights in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, with the support of Washington.

As for the Ukrainians, they expressed their optimism that Democratic control of Congress will put an “end” to the “bad appeasement” policy towards Russia led by Vladimir Putin, according to the writer.

The writer explained that Russian President Vladimir Putin, burdened by field failures and worsening economic problems, knows that his best chance to achieve a face-saving result is to sign a deal with Trump, “and here lies the grave danger to Ukraine and its allies of making concessions to Russia.”

In Europe, the beginning of the end of the Trump era has brought a sense of relief, along with “hope that the transatlantic relationship can be rid of the toxins spread by the MAGA movement.”

Tisdale likened the American voters' exit to defeat Trump to the "American Revolution" that broke out two hundred and fifty years ago, but he warned that Trump's declining position became like a "lame duck," and his frustration that he is no longer the center of attention and interest, may exacerbate old tensions and spark new crises, and push Trump to think angrily and respond violently.

The article concludes that the setbacks facing the MAGA movement and Trump are directly reflected in extremist nationalist movements in Europe and the world and will appear in the upcoming elections in Spain and France, providing an opportunity for the international democratic system to restore its balance and its network of traditional alliances away from the fluctuations and adventures of political individualism.

An actual war between Russia and Europe

The repercussions of the European-Russian conflict raise concern with the increasing events witnessed by European countries during the recent period. Ksenia Samoti, in her article in the Irish Independent newspaper, speaks about the fact that the “war” between Russia and Europe already exists, in her article entitled, “Let’s be frank: Russia is already at war with Europe, but we are too polite to admit it.”

The author deals with the phenomenon of escalating “disturbing and exhausting” daily unrest that strikes European capitals, including Ireland, from the exposure of supermarket refrigerators to a cyber attack, and the false reports of bombs targeting 30 flights. The Irish Broadcasting Corporation also received an email claiming the presence of a bomb that will explode within 45 minutes, and similar messages reached other media organizations. As a result, the buildings, including the Irish Independent newspaper, were evacuated for security checks.

The author points out that despite the absence of an official announcement of who is responsible, the countries' excessive caution and avoidance of naming the perpetrator "Moscow" serves Russia's strategy for free. Besides the financial losses to supermarkets, the biggest cost has been widespread disruption and uncertainty.

Concern has increased with the approach of the "European Political Community" summit scheduled for Thursday, in Ireland, which will witness Dublin carrying out the largest security operation in years, to secure a meeting of 50 leaders to discuss European security.

The author believes that the aggressors are working within the space of “acceptable deniability” to create confusion and panic among citizens, whether by disrupting public life or exploiting drones over Dublin Bay, as happened during the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Many Western capitals are still slow to digest the fact that Russia considers itself to be at “effective war” with Europe. It does not yet use tanks like Ukraine, but rather relies on hybrid and cheap attacks to prove that Europe lacks the will and ability to confront.

The author says that Russia is subjecting Europe to small, continuous pressure tests to prolong hesitation and confusion, just as it began its operations in the Crimean Peninsula and eastern Ukraine in 2014, through armed men without military insignia to extend the state of suspicion and reduce the readiness to respond.

At a time when major capitals such as Berlin and Warsaw are discussing the risk of a possible direct confrontation with Russia in 2027, 2029, or even 2030, Putin said publicly, “We are ready for war, but we do not want war with Europe.”

Modifying the democratic path

The British newspaper The Independent considered the results of the American elections to be a “course correction” for American democracy, and described in its editorial what happened as a “harsh popular rejection” of Donald Trump, but it warned that the president’s isolation may push him to more impulsive behavior.

She considered that Trump's ouster of Susan Wiles, who represented a relatively balanced voice, and the appointment of extremist hawk Stephen Miller as head of the presidential staff, as Trump's first reaction that heralds a tightening of the authoritarian grip internally and an escalation of the immigration issue.