TSMC will have its big exam on the 15th! Foreign media exposed "3 numbers" that may affect global chip stocks

Foreign media pointed out that TSMC’s third-quarter revenue was very impressive, but whether the stock price will continue to rise in the future will depend on three key figures that have not yet been disclosed. (Reuters photo)

[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] TSMC will announce its complete financial report for the third quarter on October 15. Although it has revealed in advance its outstanding performance of 50% annual revenue growth in the third quarter, this press conference is still regarded by the market as an important test. Foreign media pointed out that what may really influence the trend of TSMC's stock price are three key data that have not yet been announced, including high-performance computing (HPC) business revenue growth rate, 3-nanometer process revenue share, and full-year revenue growth forecast.

Foreign media believe that these three figures may not only determine whether TSMC’s stock price can continue to rise, but may even affect the performance of global semiconductor stocks. The article pointed out that TSMC’s October 15th financial report seems to be a big success, but these three data may inhibit the rise of its stock price and may also drag down the entire semiconductor sector. Therefore, investors holding chip stocks must pay close attention to this financial report.

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According to "The Motley Fool", TSMC is the world's largest wafer foundry, and its recent growth momentum mainly comes from the demand for high-performance computing chips from Huida and other fabless AI chip design companies. Among them, the HPC business has contributed about two-thirds of TSMC's revenue in the second quarter, and its growth rate has accelerated quarter by quarter in the first half of this year, reflecting that demand for AI chips continues to exceed supply, especially for Huida-related products.

As the strong growth of the HPC business continues to offset the slower growth of other types of chip production, investors will pay close attention to the growth rate of HPC revenue in the third quarter. According to foreign media analysis, any signs of growth slowdown may arouse the concerns of bearish investors; conversely, if growth accelerates significantly, it may further push up TSMC's stock price.

The second key number is the revenue share of the 3-nanometer process. The report pointed out that TSMC maintains its leading position in the advanced process race with Intel and other foundries by producing the world's smaller chips with higher density and more energy efficiency.

In the past year, the revenue share of TSMC's most advanced 3nm process has continued to increase, while the share of 5nm and 7nm processes has gradually declined. The report mentioned that the 3-nanometer process covers Huida’s latest Vera Rubin platform, which has entered full mass production in early 2026. Investors expect that as demand for advanced chips continues to increase in the second half of the year, the 3-nanometer process will bring more revenue to TSMC.

As for the third focus of observation, it is whether TSMC will once again revise its full-year revenue outlook. The report pointed out that TSMC originally estimated in January this year that its full-year revenue in U.S. dollars would grow by a mid- to high-range percentage of 20%. However, when it released its first-quarter financial report in April, it raised its growth forecast to more than 30%. At the second-quarter earnings conference in July, it was further revised up to at least 40%.

Since TSMC's third-quarter revenue has increased by 50% compared with the same period last year, foreign media believe that the possibility of TSMC not reaffirming or revising its full-year revenue forecast seems low. However, even if the overall operating performance is outstanding, if the full-year revenue outlook does not meet market expectations, it may still trigger a correction in the stock price.

Additionally, another potential risk is capital expenditures. The report pointed out that if TSMC just maintains its original full-year revenue growth forecast but further raises its capital expenditure guidance like in the second quarter, it may also put the stock price under pressure.

According to foreign media analysis, TSMC's financial report on October 15 had the opportunity to deliver stunning results, but the three key data of HPC business growth, 3nm process revenue share, and full-year revenue outlook may still become factors that prevent the stock price from continuing to rise, and even drag down the overall semiconductor stocks. Therefore, investors holding chip stocks must pay close attention to the results of this financial report.

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