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Back摩根大通警告日圓空頭部位龐大，美元兌日圓跌破155可能觸發進一步升值
摩根大通警告日圓空頭部位龐大，美元兌日圓跌破155可能觸發進一步升值
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自由时报1 hour agoBusiness2 min readChinaView translation

摩根大通警告日圓空頭部位龐大，美元兌日圓跌破155可能觸發進一步升值

日圓美元兌日圓摩根大通

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摩根大通指出，市場仍有約1000億美元的日圓空頭部位未平倉，若美元兌日圓跌破155，可能觸發空頭回補並推升日圓。日圓近期強勢反彈，受日本政府退休金投資基金可能調整資產配置及投資人對日本銀行加快升息預期推動，但摩根大通認為相關預期似乎過度，維持美元兌日圓155至165的主要預估區間。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

日圓近期強勢反彈，美元兌日圓曾於日本與美國7月底聯手干預匯市後升至160.39新高，隨後快速反轉至155.30附近，市場關注其是否跌破155關鍵價位。

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日圓近期強勢反彈，市場對後續行情的關注升溫。（示意圖，路透）

〔財經頻道／綜合報導〕日圓近期強勢反彈，市場對後續行情的關注升溫。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.，小摩）指出，市場可能仍有規模達約1000億美元（約新台幣3.16兆元）的日圓空頭部位尚未平倉，若美元兌日圓跌破155，恐觸發新一波空頭回補，進一步推升日圓。

《彭博》報導，小摩策略師近日出具報告指出，日圓近期的價格走勢似乎顯示市場仍存在「相對龐大」的日圓空頭部位。若美元兌日圓跌破155，不排除賣盤引發更多賣盤，形成空頭部位加速平倉的局面，進而使日圓升值幅度超出市場預期。

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小摩估計，目前市場上仍有約16兆至17兆日圓、相當於約1026億至1093億美元（約新台幣3.25兆元至3.46兆元）的日圓看空部位尚未平倉。若相關空頭部位全部平倉，小摩估計美元兌日圓理論上可能下探至142至146區間。

報導指出，小摩發布報告警告之際，日圓正經歷自日本與美國在7月底聯手干預匯市、支撐日圓以來最強勁的升值行情之一。

美元兌日圓上週一度升至160.39，創下日本與美國聯手干預匯市行動以來新高，但隨後快速反轉，最低一度觸及155.30，已逼近干預後的低點155.23。

市場認為，日圓近期走強主要受到2大因素推動，包括市場猜測日本政府退休金投資基金（GPIF）可能調整資產配置，以及投資人對日本銀行（BOJ）加快升息的預期升高。此外，投機客開始回補日圓空頭部位，加上日本國內投資人增加匯率避險，也進一步放大日圓升值動能。

不過，小摩對日圓後市仍保持相對審慎，認為目前市場對GPIF資產配置調整以及BOJ升息的預期「似乎有些過度」。因此，小摩目前並不認為美元兌日圓大幅跌破155的機率很高，仍維持美元兌日圓155至165的主要預估區間。

155目前成為市場關注的關鍵價位。若美元兌日圓跌破155，可能觸發更多日圓空頭部位平倉，形成「日圓升值—空頭回補—日圓進一步升值」的循環，進一步放大匯市波動。

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What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 若美元兌日圓跌破155，可能觸發更多日圓空頭部位平倉，推升日圓

    Possible · Within days

Open Questions

  • 日本政府退休金投資基金是否將調整資產配置
  • 日本銀行何時會加快升息
  • 日圓空頭部位平倉的具體時間點

Related Topics

日圓
Organizations摩根大通日本銀行日本政府退休金投資基金
Places日本美國
Topics美元兌日圓摩根大通空頭部位匯率日本銀行GPIF
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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