Fears are rising in Germany about the erosion of the “firewall” adopted by the main parties to isolate the Alternative for Germany party, after developments in the state of Saxony-Anhalt revealed new cracks in the political consensus that rejects cooperation with the right-wing party.
Last week, the Alternative for Germany party obtained the first presidency of a regional council in the state, after a number of representatives voted, contrary to the directives of their parties, for its candidate in a secret ballot. This raised doubts about MPs from the Christian Democratic Party voting in favor of the right-wing party, despite their demand to abstain from voting.
The Alternative Party described the result as a “political turning point,” considering that it showed that the commitment of some representatives to their convictions has become stronger than the commitment to the isolation policy imposed on the party.
This development came after the party achieved unprecedented electoral gains last month, which reinforced fears among its opponents who see it as opposing the democratic values on which Germany was founded after World War II. The party, in turn, rejects its classification as an extreme right-wing party.
The party has been leading national opinion polls for more than a year, with its sights set on winning the general elections scheduled for 2029, at a time when Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition government is facing increasing pressure due to internal disputes and a decline in its popularity.
Many voters hold traditional parties responsible for the decline in living standards, similar to what other countries in Western Europe are witnessing, while the two ruling parties pledged to continue confronting what they described as extremism.
Founded more than a decade ago during the eurozone debt crisis, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has transformed from a marginal force into one of the most prominent players in German politics.
On the other hand, the German security services classified some of its branches, including the Saxony-Anhalt branch, as extremist and hostile to constitutional principles, and a secret security report concluded that the party inflames anti-immigrant feelings and fuels racist and anti-Islamic rhetoric. The party denies these accusations, stressing that it defends national identity and German interests.
Until now, the "firewall" prevents the party from participating in any coalition government. But party officials confirm that they are able to attract more representatives from other parties to support their candidate to head the government of Saxony-Anhalt, as a limited number of seats separate them from the majority.
Despite Meretz's insistence on rejecting any cooperation with the party, the expansion of its popular base, especially in the eastern states, raises increasing questions within political circles about the extent of the possibility of continuing the current policy of isolation.
In a remarkable development within the conservative camp, Manfred Weber, head of the Conservative bloc in the European Parliament and vice-president of the Bavarian Christian Social Party, called for a reconsideration of the policy of political isolation imposed on the Alternative for Germany party, considering that the approach based on the principle of “either us or them” is no longer useful and should be overcome.
Weber said that the "firewall" strategy has proven to be limited in its effectiveness in confronting the rise of populist and right-wing parties, citing the French experience, where President Emmanuel Macron's policy of confronting Marine Le Pen did not succeed in limiting the influence of the extreme right, as he put it.
The conservative official considered that strict adherence to the isolation policy puts the Christian Alliance facing recurring dilemmas in state parliaments governed by minority governments, noting that the party sometimes finds itself forced to vote alongside left-wing parties despite the political differences with them.
He added that representatives of the Alternative for Germany Party sometimes put forward proposals that match or intersect with the positions of the Christian Democratic Party, but the Christian Alliance votes against them in order to maintain the policy of isolation, which he saw as raising questions about the feasibility of this approach in the long term.
Weber cited the experience of the European Parliament, where a project to tighten asylum policies was supported by right-wing parties, including the Alternative for Germany party, considering that cooperation on specific files should not remain a political taboo.
Observers believe that the rise of the Alternative Party is linked to a number of challenges facing Germany, including the repercussions of the war in Ukraine on energy prices, the decline in the competitiveness of some industrial sectors in the face of Chinese competition, in addition to the need for reforms in the tax and pension systems to keep pace with the aging population.
The economic and social gap between eastern and western Germany is still present decades after reunification, which contributes to sectors of citizens feeling marginalized.
In this context, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned that the decline in confidence in institutions and the widening state of political polarization threaten democratic stability, calling for the defense of the democratic system in the face of mounting challenges.
