Metal consumption in Russia decreased by 16% in eight months of 2026
Quick Look
Based on the results of the first eight months of 2026, metal consumption in Russia decreased by 16% compared to the same period in 2024, and there is no recovery after the disastrous last year, experts said at the conference “Rolled Metal Markets: Sales, Production, Strategy.”
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Why It Matters
Metal consumption in Russia is declining against the backdrop of a cooling housing market, a high key rate, a reduction in support programs for mechanical engineering and an increase in imports.
According to the results of the first eight months of 2026, metal consumption in Russia decreased by 16 percent compared to the same period in 2024, that is, there is no recovery after the disastrous last year. Severstal Marketing Director Dmitry Maksimov spoke about this at the conference “Rolled Metal Markets: Sales, Production, Strategy,” Kommersant writes.
According to him, the market is being pressured by the cooling of the housing market, a high key rate, a reduction in support programs for mechanical engineering and an increase in imports, the postponement of large infrastructure construction projects and rising costs - this is an increase in tariffs of natural monopolies, an increase in the cost of logistics and wages.
Construction Director of Balchug Development Andrey Yudanov agrees that the year has already been lost for builders. He explained that most of the metal is needed for monolithic work, but from the launch of the project to the start of work, it takes from six to 12 months, so now the reinforcement is being purchased for construction projects that started about a year ago.
In the best case scenario, the expert notes, a noticeable increase in demand for metal will begin in the second half of 2027, but this is if the key rate begins to decline.
Leading analyst at T-Investments Akhmed Aliyev added that the surge in domestic demand for metal in July-August turned out to be short-lived. Most likely, it was associated with increased protection for infrastructure projects, but this impulse is already weakening.
Experts agree that moderate growth in demand is possible next year as credit availability expands and new projects are launched, but it is too early to make plans to resume output to 2024 levels.
Managing Director of the NKR rating agency Dmitry Orekhov emphasized that metallurgists can be helped by low rates, affordable mortgages, acceleration of budget infrastructure programs, financing of mechanical engineering, predictable tariffs, protection from imports, as well as reducing uncertainty for private investors.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
A noticeable increase in demand for metal will begin in the second half of 2027, subject to a reduction in the key rate
Possible · Within months
Next year, a moderate increase in demand for metal is possible with the expansion of credit availability and the launch of new projects
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- How much will metal consumption decrease by the end of 2026?
- When exactly is the key rate expected to be cut and how will this affect demand?
- What import protection measures can be introduced to support domestic producers?
