As storms become more severe and aid declines at the same time, the 2026 Global Risks Report warns of the catastrophic consequences of bad weather. Scientific data show a “clear trend,” as “the intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing,” according to the document published by a coalition of relief organizations in Germany coinciding with the launch of the three-day Extreme Weather Conference in Hamburg.
But the question of whether people will lose their lives due to storms, and the number of potential victims, is decided “long before the storm reaches land,” according to what co-author of the report, Katrin Radtke, explained.
An expert from the Institute of Peacekeeping Law and International Humanitarian Law at Ruhr University in Bochum, which prepared the global risks report in cooperation with the Development Help Alliance, said that the repercussions of bad weather depend on building codes, warning systems and social protection in the affected countries.
Therefore, Radtke asserts that “it is not necessary for every storm to turn into a disaster.” She added that the determining factor is not the intensity of the winds, “but the level of protection that the community provides to its residents.”
The Philippines, Mexico and Madagascar are among those most at risk from storms
The classification of storms in the report shows how uneven the distribution of risks is. Of the 193 countries included in the report, there are 123 countries that are hardly at risk from storms. In contrast, ten countries bear the bulk of storm risks globally.
The Philippines, an island country in Southeast Asia, tops the list of ten countries most at risk from storms, followed by Mexico, then the countries of Madagascar and Mauritius in East Africa.
According to the study, the two rich industrialized countries, Japan and the United States, which rank fifth and eighth, face a similarly high level of storm risk. But thanks to more advanced early warning systems, building standards and stable institutions, they bear only “a small portion of the risk” of the dangerous repercussions of storms.
Germany ranks very low on the storm risk index
Germany ranks 167th on the storm risk index, placing it in the low end of the rankings. Executive Director of the "Development Helps" coalition, Ilona Auer-Frege, called on rich countries such as Germany to increase their investments in risk prevention in poor countries instead of reducing aid funds.
Frege said that disaster prevention “is not a secondary issue, it saves lives.” Storms on our planet are getting stronger as a result of climate change. As the paths of tropical cyclones shift toward the poles, “more and more people are living within their range.”
German climate scientist Friedrich Otto of Imperial College London explained that the total number of storms remains "relatively stable globally," but they are becoming more severe as a result of climate change caused by human activity.
How can Germany protect itself better?
Conference president and meteorologist Frank Butcher recommends relying more on artificial intelligence to protect Germany from extreme weather events. Butcher said that artificial intelligence today has become capable at an accelerated pace of providing very accurate forecasts about the course of extreme weather phenomena. It can also help identify preventive measures that can be taken even shortly before these events occur.
According to the expert, it is not possible to provide a general answer about the extent of Germany’s preparedness to confront the upcoming extreme weather phenomenon, as the risks vary greatly from one region to another. Butcher said in Hamburg: “Heavy rain between Helgoland and Zelt only concerns the seals, while the same thing in central Berlin could lead to severe flooding.”
In high areas and hills, sudden flash floods with great destructive potential may occur, while fields and meadows in flat areas can remain submerged in water for days. This is why for cities, municipalities and local communities there is no “one solution” that works for everyone.
But one thing is certain for Butcher: Germany must move faster on climate adaptation. Currently, there is a risk that these processes will take longer, while the repercussions of global warming are already being felt in Germany. The crucial factor is to accelerate planning and implementation processes.
High water temperatures due to Germany's hot summer
This year's hot summer in Germany has led to a noticeable rise in water temperatures as well. As of September 1, measuring stations off the island of Helgoland in the North Sea had recorded a total of 66 days of marine heat waves, according to what the Federal Office of Maritime and Hydrographics announced on the occasion of the Extreme Weather Conference.
On July 1, for example, the water temperature there was about four degrees higher than the long-term average. “The more sea temperatures rise, the more frequent and intense marine heat waves will become,” said bureau expert Tim Kroschke, adding, “It is expected that we will witness more of these phenomena.”
According to experts, high temperatures also lead to an increase in harmful algal blooms and a lack of oxygen. Water also expands as it becomes warmer, and glaciers and ice sheets melt, causing sea levels to rise. In addition, warmer waters are less able to absorb carbon dioxide, which in turn contributes to worsening climate change.
