Shen Boyang leads the polls for Taipei mayor by 17%. Is the "Ocean Current" effect emerging?

Taiwan is about to hold a nine-in-one election on November 28. As the election campaign enters the penultimate month, Taiwan's "Trust-Minded Cross-Strait Research Association" announced the results of a new poll on Tuesday (October 20), showing that Shen Boyang's current voting support increased from 40.5% in September to 50.3%, while Jiang Wanan's dropped from 41.7% to 33.3%. There is a 17 percentage point difference between the two sides.

However, there are significant differences between the results of this poll and the data presented in other polls, which has triggered widespread discussion among the outside world. In particular, whether the current support gap between the candidates of the two parties can directly reflect the final voting results has become the focus of attention and discussion by all parties.

It is worth noting that Taiwanese polling expert Dai Li'an, who is responsible for planning this poll, pointed out that if factors such as voters' voting intention and past voting results are further taken into account, and different turnout scenarios are considered, Shen Boyang's estimated vote rate is about 49.2% to 52.9%, and Jiang Wanan's is about 46.9% to 49.9%.

This means that even if the poll shows that Shen Boyang currently leads by 17 percentage points, after adjusting for factors such as turnout and voter behavior, the estimated vote gap between the two parties may be significantly narrowed to about 7 percentage points; under certain circumstances, Shen Boyang may even lag behind Jiang Wanan by 0.7 percentage points. In other words, there is still uncertainty about the support gap shown in the polls and the final voting results.

In addition, Dai Li'an also analyzed that Shen Boyang led his supporters to set off an "ocean current" that allowed DPP supporters to actively express their voting intentions, while some KMT supporters may form a so-called "spiral of silence" and become low-key. Therefore, even if Shen Boyang's current support is significantly ahead, after considering the actual voting situation, the final election may still be very close.

According to the press release of the "Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association", the survey targets people registered in Taipei City and over the age of 20. It was conducted from October 14 to October 16, and 1,075 people were interviewed. The maximum sampling error is ±3.0%.

Jiang Wanan and Shen Boyang responded

As the discussion about the poll heated up, Jiang Wanan did not directly respond to the results of the poll in an interview with the media on Tuesday. He only said that after many elections, all polls would be referred to, emphasizing that "continue to be steady and step-by-step, let political achievements speak for themselves, and strive for public recognition."

Shen Boyang also said on Tuesday that he "will not always pay attention to the poll numbers." "Polls are on paper, but victory or defeat is determined by votes." He mentioned that there are still 39 days until the voting day, and "public opinion may flip in an instant." He will continue to promote political opinions to win the resonance of voters.

It is worth noting that this local election is not only a battle for Taiwan's capital, but also regarded as a "mid-term test" for President Lai Ching-te's term. It is also an important indicator for observing the growth and decline of Taiwan's political parties and the layout of the 2028 presidential election.