
民主黨若取得國會控制權,可能針對關稅政策舉行監督聽證會與表決,但受限於總統否決權,實際政策變更難度極高。
美國期中選舉將至,專家預測若民主黨贏得國會控制權,將對川普的貿易關稅政策構成阻力。儘管民主黨計畫推動撤銷關稅法案,但因難以達到推翻總統否決權的國會三分之二門檻,川普的貿易議程預計仍將持續。
AI-generated summary
共和黨目前在參眾兩院均擁有微弱多數。民主黨若要推翻總統否決權,需在兩院獲得三分之二的多數席次。
美國將於3日舉行期中選舉,貿易專家及國會幕僚表示,若民主黨贏得國會控制權,美國總統川普的貿易議程將面臨新阻力。明年國會可能接連舉行監督聽證會,並進行象徵性的關稅撤銷表決,但川普仍會堅持推動更多關稅措施。
受制總統否決權
路透社報導,民主黨亟欲通過法案,推翻川普(Donald Trump)實施的許多關稅措施及其所依據的較為陳舊法規,但無論民主黨取得多少進展,仍將受制於川普的總統否決權。
參院財政委員會民主黨籍首席議員魏登(Ron Wyden)表示:「最明確的優先事項之一,就是撤銷川普對加拿大的關稅。這些關稅不僅推高物價,也傷害美加邊境兩側社區。」
共和黨目前在眾院以218席對214席、參院以53席對47席取得微弱多數,民主黨必須在參眾兩院各淨增4席,才能推翻共和黨在兩院的多數地位。
民調顯示,民主黨較有望贏得眾院,但參院選情仍難分高下,民主黨遠未達到足以推翻總統否決權的2/3席次門檻。
與此同時,川普政府正研擬計畫,在包括貿易政策在內的各領域,更大幅仰賴行政措施,不必取得國會批准。
難達到國會2/3席次
若民主黨至少拿下國會其中一院,就可能針對長期擱置的貿易法案舉行象徵性表決,例如民主黨籍參議員舒默(Chuck Schumer)提出的「終結川普關稅稅負法案」(End Trump's Tariff Tax Act)。
這項法案將廢除「1930年關稅法」(Tariff Act of 1930)第338條,也就是對加拿大商品課徵懲罰性關稅的法律依據,以及川普用來實施全球臨時10%關稅的「1974年貿易法」(Trade Act of 1974)第122條。
「終結川普關稅稅負法案」也要求退還依據這些陳舊貿易法規徵收的所有關稅,共有28名共同提案人,包括魏登在內。
華盛頓智庫戰略暨國際研究中心(CSIS)非常駐顧問芮恩希(William Reinsch)指出:「民主黨將嘗試推動許多措施,但我不認為任何措施能夠完成立法程序,因為無論出現哪種情況,兩黨都不會在國會取得足以推翻總統否決權的2/3多數席次。」
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
民主黨將針對貿易法案舉行象徵性表決
Likely · Within months

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