The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period has come to an end, and the property market in 2026 has officially entered the year-end sprint.
Since the second half of the year, the national real estate market has continued to diverge while bottoming out and recovering. The latest data released by the China Index Research Institute shows that the sales area of new homes in 100 cities fell year-on-year in October, but the first-tier cities experienced overall growth. The second-hand housing market continues to remain active, with transaction volume in 18 key cities across the country increasing by 17.5% year-on-year in October. In terms of price, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities in October was 17,316 yuan/square meter, up 0.18% month-on-month and 2.02% year-on-year. New home prices increased month-on-month in 32 of the 100 cities, and remained unchanged in 7 cities.
When summarizing the recent real estate market trends, Meng Chao, an analyst at the China Index Research Institute, pointed out: "The interest rate discount policy for home purchase loans will help reduce residents' home purchase costs, coupled with year-end promotions by housing companies and the entry of high-quality projects in core cities, it is expected to provide some support for new home transactions, but the overall trend will continue to bottom; second-hand home transactions are expected to maintain a certain level of activity, but due to the still weak market expectations, second-hand home prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend of slight decline."
New home sales are unevenly hot and cold
According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in October, the sales area of new homes in 100 cities across the country fell by 15% year-on-year, but first-tier cities have maintained overall growth since the second quarter. Among them, the transaction area of new homes in Beijing increased by 24% year-on-year, the transaction area of new homes in Shanghai increased by 4% year-on-year, and the transaction area of new homes in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 6% and 12% respectively.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, analyzed that the cumulative transactions of new and second-hand houses in Beijing in October both outperformed the same period last year. There were 4,753 new commercial residential units signed online, a slight increase of 1.7% from the previous month, continuing the popularity since September. In the first 10 months, a total of 37,939 new commercial housing units were signed online, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%.
"The 'Silver Ten' period in the Shanghai real estate market is full of quality, with both new reforms and high-end improvements making a good start for the year-end market." Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate Market Analyst Lu Wenxi pointed out, "In the second half of October, as the market supply increased, transactions rebounded continuously, achieving tail-offs at the end of the month. On the one hand, there was a significant increase in 'sunlit discs', not limited to first-time improvement products. , tens of millions of yuan-level improvement products are also joining the market, and the market is showing a bullish trend; on the other hand, market confidence continues to recover, especially the recent research reports of many foreign investment institutions, which show that the expected increase in housing prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen will continue to increase, which will give potential buyers more psychological hints and speed up their home purchase decisions. It is expected that transactions will stabilize at the current level in the next two months. "
At the same time, some insiders believe that the decrease in new home transactions in many cities is related to the unsustainable supply.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, pointed out that the weak performance of new homes in Guangzhou and Shenzhen during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" periods was mainly due to three reasons: First, there was a significant decrease in launches. In October, the year-on-month decline in new launches in both places was more than 50%, resulting in new home transactions falling short of expectations. This is related to the increase in sales in September and overdraft of supply in advance. Li Yujia analyzed, "Take Shenzhen as an example. In September, a total of 12 projects obtained pre-sale certificates, 2,029 new residences were added, and the supply-to-sales ratio reached 1.44. The supply is sufficient, but sales are under pressure. In October, only 7 projects entered the market, with a total of 1,368 units, and the supply decreased by about one-third compared with September."
Second, under the interest discount policy, the proportion of second-hand houses that meet the interest discount standards accounts for more than 60%, and the proportion of new houses is less than 30%.
Third, the existing home sales system suppresses the pace of supply. In October, due to the uncertainty about how to deal with projects in progress and legacy projects, it is not clear whether they can be sold according to the old pre-sale rules. In particular, there is still room for banks to implement according to the old rules (loans can be issued after pre-sale applications). Major real estate companies generally wait and see, waiting for the details to be clarified before applying for pre-sales.
The supply of new homes generally shrinks
Similar to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the supply of new homes has decreased in many cities.
According to Pro Real Estate Research, in October 2026, the new supply area of new residential buildings in 50 key cities across the country was 5.98 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 63.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%. This is the second lowest level this year, only higher than February, and the lowest value in October in the past three years.
In addition, judging from the changes in cities at each energy level, the pressure to shrink the supply of new housing is shifting from low energy levels to high energy levels. Among them, the supply of new homes in first-tier cities fell by 10% year-on-year, and the second-tier cities had the deepest year-on-year decline, reaching 41%; the supply in third- and fourth-tier cities remained flat year-on-year, and they were the only tiers that did not shrink. Judging from the cumulative supply in the first 10 months, the total supply in 50 cities was 92.14 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20%. Among them, second-tier cities dropped by 23%, first-tier cities dropped by 21%, and third- and fourth-tier cities dropped by 12%. The third- and fourth-tier cities also experienced the smallest decline.
Specifically, among the 50 cities, Shanghai is the only first-tier city with a large supply of new homes. In October, only 5 cities including Shanghai and Taicang saw positive month-on-month growth in new home supply, while the remaining 45 cities were either flat or declining month-on-month. On a year-on-year basis, the supply of new homes in 19 cities was positive year-on-year, concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities with extremely low bases such as Yangjiang and Chenzhou.
Second-hand housing transactions in 18 cities increased year-on-year
In terms of second-hand housing, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in 18 key cities monitored by the China Index Research Institute from January to October was 1.23 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; in October alone, the transaction volume of second-hand housing units in 18 cities was 116,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the second-hand housing transaction volume in Shanghai increased by 35% year-on-year, increasing year-on-year for eight consecutive months; Beijing increased by 8% year-on-year, and Shenzhen increased by 4% year-on-year.
Anjuke Shanghai's statistics on "online real estate" online signing data show that in October, 24,653 second-hand housing units (full scale) were signed online in Shanghai, the second highest transaction volume in the same period in the past 10 years.
In terms of price, in October, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities was 12,376 yuan/square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.72%. Among the 100 cities, only second-hand house prices in Zhaoqing increased, Dongying remained flat, and the remaining cities still experienced slight declines.
Regarding the performance of Beijing’s second-hand housing market in October, Leng Hui, an analyst at Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, told the Daily Economic News reporter that in October, 13,081 second-hand housing units were signed online in Beijing, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 17.0%. The number of working days in October is less than in normal months, and it is normal for the number of online visas to decline. In fact, the popularity of the second-hand housing market in October increased compared with September, and the actual number of Lianjia contracts signed increased slightly month-on-month. Price trends are generally stable, with prices in most urban areas remaining stable or slightly fluctuating.
Regarding the volume and price performance of second-hand housing during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period, Li Yujia pointed out: "On the one hand, some owners have recently taken the initiative to lower the listing price from 1.6 million to 1.7 million yuan to less than 1.5 million yuan, and 'price for volume' has entered the interest discount threshold; on the other hand, there has been a mismatch between supply and demand from September to October."
He further analyzed: "On the supply side, due to the continuous rebound in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities month-on-month, coupled with the digestion of early price cuts and low-price listings, as well as more judgments that the market will hit bottom, the number of second-hand housing listings began to decrease. Third-party monitoring data showed that the total number of listings in four first-tier cities at the end of September was 411,800 units, a decrease of 13,500 units, or 3.19%, from 425,300 units at the end of April. Suzhou, Tianjin, The number of listings in new first-tier cities such as Foshan is also declining, which increases the confidence of property owners and either increases or maintains the offer, reduces the bargaining space, or withdraws the listing or sublease. However, the demand side is not optimistic about the digestion of the above changes, which makes it difficult for high-priced properties to be sold, and the proportion of low-priced properties is increased. In addition, after the release of the existing home sales system, the judgment that the supply in the market will be reduced also makes some owners no longer sell at lower prices, resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand. "
