As allies suffer successively in the Brazilian presidential election and the Serbian general election, attention is being paid to whether U.S. President Donald Trump's external influence will suffer.
The Israeli general election held on the 27th (local time) is also not favorable to President Trump's 'close friend' Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As the United States also approaches the midterm elections next week, President Trump is being tested both inside and outside the United States.
The painful news for President Trump right now is the success of President Luiz Inacio Lula Dasiva, the ‘godfather of the South American left’, for a fourth term.
President Lula, who was considered a thorn in his side, defeated right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and stopped the 'blue tide' in Latin America.
This is the first case of the right wing losing in a Latin American presidential election since President Trump came back to power. Moreover, Brazil is the largest country in Latin America, so the results of this presidential election have great symbolism.
This is an incident that is bound to be a significant blow to President Trump's 'money theory', which has emphasized America's leadership in the Western Hemisphere. Donorism is a combination of President Trump's name 'Donald' and the 'Monroe Doctrine' declared by then US President James Monroe in 1823 with the aim of excluding European interference in the American continent.
It is unknown whether Latin America, starting with Brazil, will move to the 'left', but there is a possibility that Lula's victory will lead to the unification of Latin American leftist forces opposing the US' exercise of hegemony.
President Trump has a special relationship with the Bolsonaro family. Senator Bolsonaro's father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in July last year, saying he was being oppressed.
Former President Bolsonaro is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup after losing to Lula in the 2022 presidential election.
Some speculate that the results of this presidential election may have shown the limits of Trump's foreign strategy, as he was unable to prevent Lula's victory even though he protected former President Bolsonaro despite controversy over interference in internal affairs.
In the Serbian general election, Aleksandar Vucic, who had been in power for 14 years, lost power due to a challenge from anti-government forces led by the student movement, which is also uncomfortable news for President Trump.
Vučić, a right-wing politician with strong nationalistic tendencies, worked hard to build a relationship with President Trump, with whom he had a lot in common, in order to maintain his political base. President Trump's eldest son's visit to Serbia was successful, and his eldest son-in-law promoted a large-scale development project in Serbia, raising suspicions of preferential treatment.
President Trump has also used Vučić to maintain American influence in the Balkan Peninsula, a geopolitically important region.
U.S. media outlet Axios pointed out that the results of this general election were "a political blow to the Balkan authoritarian leader who has courted Trump's family and associates," and that "it is an incident that raises questions about the future relationship between Serbia and the United States, which has maintained a balance between Russia and the West."
Prime Minister Netanyahu, whom President Trump affectionately calls “Bibi,” is also facing a difficult election.
With the pro-Netanyahu camp and the anti-Netanyahu camp showing a very close race, there is no guarantee that either side will succeed in forming a coalition government.
If Prime Minister Netanyahu is forced to resign in the Israeli general election, which is held a week before the U.S. midterm elections, due to strong criticism of the regime, it could not only deal a direct blow to President Trump's Middle East policy, but also lead to further fueling public opinion critical of the Iran war.
After the start of the war between Israel and Iran, President Trump showed signs of distancing himself from Prime Minister Netanyahu by rejecting his demands for escalation of war, but he publicly supported Prime Minister Netanyahu ahead of the Israeli general election.
The successive defeats of the 'right-wing alliance', coupled with the midterm elections in the United States, may serve as a factor in putting a brake on President Trump's unilateral dominance.
While the Democratic Party is likely to regain the majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections scheduled to be held on the 3rd of next month, it is also unclear whether the Republican Party will maintain its majority in the Senate. There is considerable concern among the Republican Party that both the Senate and the House of Representatives could be lost to the Democratic Party.
As President Trump, amidst the sense of crisis of his defeat in the midterm elections, he is faced with a headache both internally and externally, such as a decline in allies in the international community. If defeat in the midterm elections becomes a reality, right-wing camps in each country that backed President Trump are also likely to suffer a weakening blow.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who has been at odds with President Trump, praised Lula's victory, saying, "What happened in Brazil will also happen in Spain. The return of progress around the world has begun." This is a call for the progressive camp to unite against the spread of the right-wing power that coincided with President Trump's return to power.
Previously, last April, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who was called the 'Trump of Eastern Europe', lost the general election. President Trump publicly supported it and Vice President JD Vance visited Hungary to provide support, but ultimately lost.
