Author, Saeed Jafari
Role, BBC political analyst
and
Author, WSL Global Journalism
Posted 2 minutes ago
Reading time: 3 minutes
Just days before Chinese President Xi Jinping's high-profile visit to the United States, Beijing hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, a reminder of China's influence over Tehran.
The Iran war is expected to be one of the main topics when Trump meets Xi Jinping on Thursday.
China has maintained a consistent stance since the Iran war broke out seven months ago. Beijing has condemned U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and the sanctions Washington has imposed on Tehran. At the same time, China has repeatedly called for an end to the war, especially the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
With its huge oil reserves and energy diversification strategy, China has so far successfully withstood the impact of the Iran war.
Andrea Ghiselli, an expert on China and the Middle East at the University of Exeter in the UK, said that China can maintain its current situation for longer, but the economic costs will only get higher and higher.
But he said China both wants the war to end and needs to balance that interest with other geopolitical considerations.
"China does not want this conflict to become a troublesome factor in Sino-US relations," but at the same time "it will not harm Iran's core interests and demands," Dr. Giselli said.
He explained: "The positions of Iran and China are roughly the same. Both sides believe that the aggressive actions of the United States and Israel are the reasons why this conflict broke out and continues to this day."
Skip hot reading and continue reading
hot reading
End of Hot Reading
Energy and Economics
Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group said China, as an energy consumer, would be "damaged" by the continuation of the war.
According to a 2025 report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil accounts for about one-fifth of China's total energy consumption, but more than 70% of it relies on imports.
China imported about 1.4 million barrels of Iranian oil per day last year, accounting for only 12% of its crude oil imports. In comparison, the rest of the Middle East accounts for 42%, much higher than Iran.
China has been able to replace some of its oil originally coming from Iran and other Gulf producers with supplies from Russia, Brazil and other exporters. However, replacing natural gas purchased from the region is much more difficult.
China's vast oil reserves help it withstand the energy shock caused by the war. The size of China's oil reserves remains a state secret, but outside estimates put the reserves in 2025 at between 1 billion and 1.4 billion barrels.
Erica Downs, a China energy researcher at Columbia University in the United States, said: "If China had about 1.4 billion barrels of oil inventories at the beginning of the war, based on 2025 levels, it would be enough to meet 254 days of oil imports from the Middle East."
She added that since some Middle Eastern oil still arrived during the war, China's oil reserves may actually last longer.
However, data from Reuters Asia commodities columnist Clyde Russell shows that China has needed to use its oil reserves in three of the past four months, including August.
"Beijing probably wants to stop drawing on its stockpiles sooner rather than later, thereby retaining a sizeable buffer," Dr Downs said.
Global energy markets could become more volatile if the Iran-backed Houthis step up attacks on Saudi Arabia and take further control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The economic difficulties caused by the Iran war may even trigger a global economic crisis, which will be bad news for the Chinese economy that relies on exports.
China's economic growth has been slowing since 2019. The world's second-largest economy is facing a housing crisis, trade frictions with the West and rising local government debt.
As a result, net exports accounted for 32.7% of China's gross domestic product growth last year, the highest level since 1997, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. As domestic consumption remains weak, exports have become the main engine of economic growth.
Sanctions, naval blockades and negotiations
As the war reaches a stalemate, the Trump administration continues to increase economic pressure on Tehran. Washington has warned that companies, banks and countries supporting Iran's economy could face secondary sanctions.
So far, the United States has not taken action against major Chinese banks, although it has sanctioned several Chinese companies and entities. Washington has been cautious in this regard as U.S.-China trade tensions remain high.
Beijing has not publicly agreed to Washington's demands that it join a financial pressure campaign against Iran. China expressed its opposition to "illegal unilateral sanctions" and said that China's cooperation with Iran is conducted within the framework of international law.
Aziz, an analyst on Iran issues, said that China is unlikely to stop buying Iranian oil due to pressure from the United States.
"The Chinese do not want to set a precedent where the United States can use pressure to force Chinese companies and banks to implement U.S. policies," he said.
However, the U.S. naval blockade has severely limited Iran's ability to ship oil to Chinese buyers.
Reuters reported that Iran exported 2 million barrels of oil per day in March, but this had fallen to 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day by August. Since the United States resumed its naval blockade on July 14, no Iranian crude oil has successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz and reached China.
Mohammad Ghaedi, an Iran expert at George Washington University in the United States, said that if the blockade continues, trade between Iran and China will increasingly be limited to land transportation, but land transportation costs are higher and export capacity is much lower than sea transportation.
China's desire to mitigate the impact of financial sanctions does not mean that it has the ability or willingness to challenge the naval blockade. Breaking such a blockade could pit Beijing and Washington into a very different confrontation. There is currently no sign that China’s leadership is prepared to bear this cost.
