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Back鞏固基本盤 年底選戰藍營政治人物大打「大罷免2.0牌」
鞏固基本盤 年底選戰藍營政治人物大打「大罷免2.0牌」
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自由时报2 hours agoPolitics2 min readChinaView translation

鞏固基本盤 年底選戰藍營政治人物大打「大罷免2.0牌」

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年底選戰倒數不到50天,藍營政治人物多次提及去年大罷免,將民進黨台北市長參選人沈伯洋掀起的「洋流」稱為「大罷免2.0」,希望藉此鞏固基本盤、動員中立選民。國民黨主席鄭麗文批評民進黨以政治動員操作罷免撕裂社會,立法院長韓國瑜稱大罷免是政治獵殺,台北市長蔣萬安競辦指出過去領銜人曹興誠公開號召罷團力挺沈伯洋,「大罷免2.0」氛圍再現。蔣萬安曾質疑選民不理性後澄清必須謙卑尊重民意。台中市長盧秀燕指出選情冷清,人民憤怒保住地方立委但賴政府未改變,呼籲2026全民倒閣、2028全民倒賴。另有台灣球迷在名古屋亞運舉起「Taiwan」毛巾遭制止,蔣萬安發文支持為台灣加油不該成禁忌,被質疑蹭熱度並遭沈伯洋質疑,後回應愛台灣不是民進黨專利。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

去年台灣發生全國性大罷免行動,針對多名區域立委進行罷免投票,最終多數罷免案未達門檻失敗。此次選舉期間,藍營人物反复提及去年大罷免,將當前選戰比喻為「大罷免2.0」,認為民進黨台北市長參選人沈伯洋掀起的支持熱潮具有類似動員特徵。

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年底選戰倒數不到50天,藍營政治人物近來屢次提及去年大罷免,更稱民進黨台北市長參選人沈伯洋掀起的「洋流」是「大罷免2.0」,盼以此鞏固基本盤、打動觀望的中立選民,催高投票率。

國民黨主席鄭麗文就任以來,在多個場合抨擊民進黨國會輸了不甘願、輸不起,以政治動員操作罷免、撕裂社會,也讓許多黨工無端捲入官司。她近日接受日媒專訪時指出,去年大罷免全面失敗,反映選民對政治操作的反感;為了選舉利益利用對立情緒,只會將台灣推向更危險的處境。

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立法院長韓國瑜10日以國慶大會主席致詞時,脫稿批評執政黨,稱現在看到台灣民主已經發生裂痕,去年的大罷免,反對黨的區域立委全部被綁住,這不是民主,完全是一場政治獵殺,今年又看到危機出現。

韓國瑜昨天在基隆也重提基隆市長謝國樑及立委林沛祥被罷免,指講台灣民主成熟、很棒「我的心很虛」,到處發生罷免,還包括不副署,憲法的老師已經沒辦法教憲法了,這些都是反民主的。執政黨跟反對黨再怎麼爭吵,也會有一定的遊戲規則、妥協和道德尺度。

台北市長蔣萬安及其競辦近來不只一次提及大罷免或「大罷免2.0」,蔣萬安競辦日前公布,國民黨台北市5位立委加入競辦發言陣容,競辦當時指出,過去大罷免的領銜人曹興誠,公開號召罷團力挺沈伯洋,「大罷免2.0」的出征政治氛圍儼然再現。面對熟悉的政治操作,曾經共同戰勝大惡罷的5位台北市國民黨立委集結,將1年前戰勝仇恨動員、拒絕撕裂社會的經驗,轉化為選戰力量。

蔣萬安日前被問到與沈伯洋的支持度拉近時,提到去年大罷免的氛圍是社會完全被撕裂,「從來沒有感受到台灣、甚至台北的選民會變成這麼的不理性」,一番話被質疑「在檢討選民」。事後蔣澄清,人民的聲音絕對是最重要的,在民意面前每個人都必須謙卑,他一定會尊重各項數據、戒慎恐懼。

另外,有台灣球迷在名古屋亞運舉起「Taiwan」字樣毛巾應援遭制止。台北市長蔣萬安過兩日後於社群媒體發文表態,提到為台灣加油,不該成為禁忌,被質疑在蹭熱度,也被沈伯洋問「挺台灣(Team Taiwan)本來就不需要道歉,不是很清楚為什麼要特別講這個?」蔣萬安後來回應,大罷免慣用手法就是揪出一個個謠言,愛台灣絕對不是民進黨專利。

台中市長盧秀燕8月時也指出,今年全台的選情由北到南都很冷清,因為大罷免之後,人民展現了憤怒,保住了地方的立委,但賴政府並沒有改變,人民莫可奈何。盧秀燕呼籲,2026等於是全民倒閣,2028全民倒賴,讓國家給更好的團隊來治理,國家社會才會進步。

盧秀燕9月受訪時表示,本來以為在大罷免失敗以後,執政黨能夠反省改革,現在看起來反而狀況更糟糕,甚至因為隨著地方大選將至,執政黨無所不用其極,更撕裂台灣、更對立,甚至更操弄,覺得彷彿大罷免的2.0。她強調,不希望今年地方大選變成大罷免的2.0,包括操弄、攻擊、獵巫。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 年底選戰將進入白熱化階段,藍綠雙方將更頻繁地引用罷免議題進行政治動員

    Likely · Within weeks

  • 沈伯洋的支持度將成為選戰關鍵觀察點,其是否能轉化為實際票數將受到罷免氛圍影響

    Possible · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • 「大罷免2.0」是否真的會如藍營所預期般動員選民?
  • 沈伯洋的支持度是否真的受到罷免氛圍影響?
  • 名古屋亞運「Taiwan」毛巾事件是否會對兩岸關係產生影響?
  • 執政黨是否真的在操弄選情如藍營所指控?

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