President Lee Jae-myung, who entered his second year in office, appointed his second Prime Minister and reorganized the Blue House staff. What new faces, including Prime Minister-designate Han Seong-sook, a former Naver executive, have in common is that they have no special relationship with the President. This can be interpreted as meaning that he will lead the second year as an integrated expert who is less likely to be opposed by the opposition party instead of his own person.
The most notable thing about this personnel appointment is the appointment of former Chief Prosecutor Han Chan-sik to the Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs, the control tower of the situation. Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs Han is the person who investigated the Moon Jae-in administration's 'Ministry of Environment blacklist' case and indicted former Minister of Environment Kim Eun-kyung and others. Privately, he is the son-in-law of former Grand National Party leader Choi Byeong-ryeol, who led the impeachment of former President Roh Moo-hyun. The hardliners of the Democratic Party and the pro-Moon camp, who oppose the prosecution's right to supplementary investigation, may feel uncomfortable.
For a president with a single five-year term, the second year in office is considered an inflection point. Power is distributed to the ruling party ahead of the general election, and the media ends its honeymoon and begins to target the Blue House. The opposition party's mouth is becoming harsh, and the ruling party is openly attacking the president amid factional competition for the next power. Public sentiment cools, approval ratings drop, and when something happens, people ridicule him by calling him a 'president.', raising the stress level.
Looking back at previous governments, there were frequent incidents and accidents that took away the power of the government every two years. In 2004, the second year of the Roh Moo-hyun administration, the president was impeached amid divisions in the ruling party. In 2009, the second year of the Lee Myung-bak administration, the tragedy of the death of the former president coincided with the Sejong City Amendment Act, creating an uncomfortable cohabitation system in which the party's center of gravity was centered on Park Geun-hye.
In the second year of the Park Geun-hye administration, the entire nation experienced trauma due to the Sewol Ferry disaster. The accident itself was a tragedy, but the government's irresponsible response and lack of leadership led to internal divisions within the pro-Park faction and the President's seclusion at his official residence.
The Moon Jae-in administration was no exception. In 2018, the revelations by prosecutor Kim Tae-woo sparked a controversy over the Blue House's surveillance of civilians, dealing a blow to the morality of the regime. The collapse of the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi caused the Korean Peninsula peace process to lose momentum. The upward trend in approval ratings, which had exceeded 70%, slowed from then on, drawing a steep downward curve.
The second year of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration was a series of bad news. As security anxiety grew as communication lines between North and South Korea were cut off, Marine Corps Corporal Chae Soo-geun was killed in the line of duty, the jamboree was disrupted, the Busan Expo was failed to host, the Democratic Party leader at the time, Lee Jae-myeong, was attacked, and a strike by majors occurred. As First Lady Kim Kun-hee's approval rating plummeted due to suspicions of her manipulation of state affairs, President Yoon appointed Han Dong-hoon, whom he regarded as his confidant, as chairman of the ruling party's emergency response committee, but they became enemies and suffered a crushing defeat in the general election.
Looking back, the crisis in the second year was not a coincidence. Above all, it was largely due to the President himself being so confident that “I know because I tried it” that he turned a deaf ear to criticism. So they tried to guard themselves by renovating the Blue House. He also made a decision to rearrange his close associates by deploying bureaucratic-type staff to the front rather than political affairs-type staff.
However, unfortunately, no president has overcome the crisis through personnel changes. The problem was with the president himself. The high approval rating in the first year gave the president confidence that I was right, and the aides' reluctance to speak bitterly in front of him further strengthened that confidence. As a result, public sentiment grew distant and the president was trapped in a personal tent like a former palace.
As the past constitutional history shows, the noise in the second year of administration starts from within, not from outside. The disappointment of public servants who say, “I worked hard like this, but they don’t take care of me” creates a rift in the community of destiny, and when aides start making comments instead of speaking directly, the regime is bound to be shaken.
The second-year jinx is not a superstition. This is a structural phenomenon created by the five-year single term system, and the Lee Jae-myung administration is now facing that old exam paper. The test questions were always the same, but even though the presidents knew the answers, they were unable to solve them. Will the Lee Jae-myung administration come up with a different answer this time? First of all, while anticipating a backlash from the ruling party, the fact that the Han Chan-sik card was brought out raises expectations.
