US troops withdraw from Iraq: What legacy will be left after 20 years of military presence? What happens next?
Author, Luis Barrucho
Role, BBC International Correspondent
Published 5 minutes ago
Reading time: 5 minutes
The United States plans to complete the withdrawal of its remaining troops from Iraq by September 30, ending a military deployment that has lasted for more than 20 years and has profoundly affected Iraq.
The withdrawal marked the end of a period of military presence. This history begins with the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, followed by years of insurgency and sectarian violence. U.S. troops withdrew in 2011 but returned in 2014 to help defeat the Islamic State (IS).
The latest round of troop withdrawals comes amid ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran, once again exposing U.S. military personnel in Iraq to the risk of attack.
However, experts say that with the withdrawal of U.S. troops, U.S. influence in Iraq is unlikely to disappear.
What happens now? Why?
Officially, the withdrawal is in accordance with a 2024 agreement between Washington and Baghdad to end the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve mission against the Islamic State. IS is also known as ISIS in the United States.
At the peak of the Iraq war in 2007, more than 170,000 U.S. troops were deployed there. According to U.S. Central Command, the number had dropped to about 2,400 in December 2023, before the troop withdrawal agreement was reached.
Since then, the US military has further reduced its local deployment. According to media reports, only a small number of troops are currently stationed in the Kurdistan region.
"This withdrawal was agreed to by the previous Iraqi administration because the mission to defeat ISIS had been achieved in Iraq," said Safwan Al-Amin, a nonresident senior fellow at the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
The operation also reflects long-standing political pressure in Iraq.
Douglas Silliman, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2016 to 2019, said successive administrations have faced pressure to end the U.S. military presence because many people believe the move violates Iraq's sovereignty.
Silliman is currently president of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. "Successive Iraqi governments, under pressure from pro-Iran factions and large parts of the Shia community, have been putting pressure... to ensure that these troops leave Iraq," he told the BBC.
U.S. troops withdrew from Iraq in 2011 under then-President Barack Obama, but returned three years later after the Islamic State captured large swathes of the country and Baghdad made demands.
Since then, the U.S. military's role has gradually shifted from combat operations to training, advising and sharing intelligence.
However, analysts believe the timing of this month's withdrawal is driven more by security concerns than the official end of the counter-Islamic State mission.
H.A. Hellyer, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, said: "This is about risk, not ISIS; that rationale expired a few years ago."
Hellier pointed out that the recent attacks on U.S. facilities in northern Iraq come amid tensions between Iran and the region. He said Washington increasingly views remaining U.S. military personnel as vulnerable targets.
Amin agreed. He pointed out that U.S. and Iraqi officials had previously discussed retaining a small U.S. force even after the coalition mission ended.
"Given the small number of troops and limited ability to project force, Iran's war exposes their presence as more of a vulnerability than an asset," he said.
What is America’s legacy in Iraq?
More than 20 years after the invasion of Iraq, the outside world is still divided over the impact of the U.S. military's legacy in Iraq.
Amin described this situation as a "mixed blessing".
He said: "The U.S. invasion did not achieve its goals, and regime change did not meet Iraqis' expectations for a stable and prosperous country." He believed that the invasion destabilized the region and allowed Iran to expand its influence.
Silliman agrees that the transition has been tumultuous, but says many Iraqis have told him over the years that they value the political shift that came with overthrowing Saddam.
He believes that the idea that "representative democracy must govern Iraq" has taken root, even if "it takes time to ingrain the democratic tradition in a society that has never really had a democratic system in the past."
Yerevan Saeed, director of the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace at American University in Washington, also takes a positive view.
"The overthrow of the previous regime is indeed a big deal." He believes that critics ignore the brutal rule that this regime change ended.
Although corruption persists, he believes Iraq now has more political freedom and diversity than before 2003, especially in the Iraqi Kurdish region.
Hellyer completely disagrees with using democracy to define America’s legacy.
"People should stop asking, 'Has America established democracy?' No, and that has been settled," he said.
In his view, the more influential legacy lies at the regional level: "The overthrow of Saddam ultimately led to Iran's network reaching deep into the state system itself, absorbing the checks and balances that Washington initially removed."
Yet all four experts agreed that Iraq is still far from the stable democracy envisioned by U.S. policymakers in 2003.
Corruption is widespread, they say, while armed groups still coexist and hold power alongside formal state institutions. These include, in particular, hardline organizations within Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The Popular Mobilization Forces are a network of mainly Shiite militias that Baghdad is trying to bring fully under state control.
What’s next?
Amin does not believe that troop withdrawals will mean the end of U.S. influence in Iraq.
He said: "Because Iraq relies on the sale of oil in U.S. dollars, the United States still has a lot of influence. Iraq still relies on the United States for arms sales, and it also needs U.S. diplomatic support to deal with the challenges faced by Iraq and its neighbors in the region."
Said said part of the influence comes from the level of U.S. diplomacy in Iraq.
"Baghdad has the largest US embassy in the world, and Erbil has the largest US consulate in the world." He pointed out that after the withdrawal of US troops, these two diplomatic facilities still need to be continuously protected.
Silliman expected that what he described as a "very deep military relationship" would be maintained, including continued training and planning support for the Iraqi military, counterterrorism forces and the Peshmerga. The Peshmerga are the armed forces of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region.
The biggest unknown, however, is the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi initially wanted to bring the militias fully under state jurisdiction by the same September 30 deadline, but the militias are reportedly seeking to extend that deadline until the end of 2027.
Experts are divided over whether even that timetable is realistic.
"This is not going to happen," Said said, noting that the militias are deeply embedded in Iraq's political and financial system, hold seats in Congress and maintain ties with Tehran.
But Silliman believes there may be a silver lining. He believes that without the US military as a common target, the militia groups may lose an important political tool, giving Baghdad more space to pressure the militiamen who refuse to comply.
However, he warned of a more serious risk: "I have spoken to a number of Iraqi prime ministers, including the prime ministers before I was ambassador. They are all concerned that this could lead to internal conflict and possibly even a civil war in Iraq."
Said is also worried about the resurgence of "Islamic State" and believes that this will be similar to the situation after the withdrawal of US troops in 2011. He recalled that after the US troops left, the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad began arresting and purging Sunni leaders and excluding them from the political process.
Amin predicted that Iran would "further consolidate its influence if it can" and warned against viewing the withdrawal as necessarily permanent.
"U.S. troops have left Iraq in the past in 2011, but ended up returning to the country a few years later."
"This is the end of one chapter of the story, not the last chapter," he said.
Illustration: Raees Hussain
