China News Service, October 2. According to the WeChat public account of the Ministry of Emergency Management, the Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Reduction and Relief Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management recently held a conference with the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Water Resources, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the China Meteorological Administration, the National Energy Administration, the National Forestry and Grassland Administration and other departments and units to discuss and judge the national natural disaster risk situation in October 2026 and the National Day holiday.
Comprehensive analysis shows that in October, the risk of floods and hail disasters in some areas such as Central China, South China, and Southwest China is relatively high, and some small and medium-sized rivers may experience super-warning floods; 1-2 typhoons will land or significantly affect my country; North China, Northeast China, East China, Central China, Southwest China, The local forest fire danger level in the northwest is relatively high, and the grassland fire danger level is relatively high in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. The risk of geological disasters is higher in some areas such as North China, East China, Central South, Southwest, and Northwest China. Periodic droughts may occur in some areas such as northwest China and Inner Mongolia. During the National Day holiday, we need to focus on risks such as floods, wind and hail, forest and grassland fires, and geological disasters. The details are as follows:
One is the risk of floods and wind and hail disasters. It is expected that in October, precipitation in southern Henan, central and southern Anhui, western Zhejiang, western Fujian, Jiangxi, most of Hubei, Hunan, eastern Chongqing, most of Guizhou, southern Yunnan, Guangxi, western Guangdong, and southwestern Xinjiang will be more than 20% higher than the same period in normal years. In eastern Hubei, southwestern Anhui, northwest Jiangxi, most of Hunan, northern Guangxi, eastern Guizhou, and southeastern Chongqing, the precipitation will be 50% to 80% higher than normal. Periodic heavy rains or strong convective weather may occur frequently in the above-mentioned areas, and the risk of floods and hail disasters is high. Some small and medium-sized rivers may experience floods exceeding warning levels.
The second is the risk of typhoon disaster. It is expected that in October, 3-4 typhoons will be generated in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea, close to the same period of the year; 1-2 typhoons will land or significantly affect my country. The typhoon intensity is generally strong, and the moving path is mainly northwest and westward, mainly affecting the coastal areas of South China; 1 disastrous typhoon storm surge process and 1 disastrous extratropical storm surge process may occur along the coast of my country; 4-5 disastrous wave processes may occur in offshore waters.
The third is the risk of forest and grassland fires. It is expected that in October, western and northern Beijing, western and northern Hebei, northern Shanxi, eastern Inner Mongolia, eastern and western Liaoning, eastern Jilin, northern Heilongjiang, western Zhejiang, southern Anhui, most of Fujian, central and northern Jiangxi, central and eastern Shandong, eastern Hubei, The forest fire danger level in some areas such as eastern Hunan, western Sichuan, eastern Tibet, central and northern Shaanxi, central Gansu, eastern Qinghai, most of Ningxia, and northern Xinjiang is relatively high; the grassland fire danger level in some areas such as eastern Inner Mongolia, eastern Qinghai, and northern Xinjiang is relatively high.
The fourth is geological disaster risk. It is expected that in October, the risk of geological disasters will be higher in some areas such as western Shanxi, western Zhejiang, northern Fujian, northeastern and western Jiangxi, western Hubei, central Hunan, western Guangxi, northern and eastern Guangxi, northern, central and eastern Chongqing, central Sichuan, northwest and southeastern Guizhou, northeastern and southern Yunnan, northern and southwestern Shaanxi, central and eastern Gansu, and northeastern Qinghai.
The fifth is drought disaster risk. It is expected that in October, the temperature in central and southern Guangdong, eastern Guangxi, Hainan, western Inner Mongolia, most of Ningxia, most of Gansu, most of Qinghai, parts of northern Sichuan, and most of Xinjiang will be 1-2°C higher than the same period in normal years; Inner Mongolia Precipitation in western China, northern Shaanxi, northern Ningxia, parts of western Sichuan, and eastern Tibet is 20-50% less than the same period in normal years. Periodic droughts may occur in some areas such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi.
During the National Day holiday, heavy rainfall and strong convective weather in some areas such as the eastern part of Southwest China may cause floods and hail disasters; some areas in Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Xinjiang have higher forest fire risk levels, and Inner Mongolia has higher forest fire risk levels. Grassland fire danger levels are relatively high in parts of ancient and Xinjiang; Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and other places have a higher risk of local geological disasters. The National Day holiday coincides with the peak travel period. All localities and departments must pay close attention to the adverse effects of various natural disasters on transportation, outdoor activities, and agricultural production.
