A record number of defaults is expected in the Russian bond market in 2026

By the end of 2026, more than 50 issuers may default on bonds on the Russian market, which will be the maximum in the last 17 years. Izvestia writes about this with reference to analysts’ forecasts.

The National Credit Ratings (NCR) agency recorded more than 500 default and technical default events by September. The latter means that the company is given ten days to pay after the due date, and if it cannot find the money, then the default becomes full-fledged.

However, as NKR Managing Director Dmitry Orekhov clarified, this applies to all cases, and, as a rule, one problem issuer allows many defaults. And if you look at the companies, at least 30 issuers have made delays since the beginning of the year.

Mikhail Nikonov, director of corporate ratings at the Expert RA agency, pointed out that 20 companies have gone into technical default since the beginning of 2026, of which 17 were unable to pay. At the same time, over the entire last year, 24 organizations faced technical default.

Experts are especially concerned about the fact that problems arise not only among small companies, but also among market leaders. The developer Samolet faced two technical defaults, and before that, Eurotrans, the operator of the large network of Trassa gas stations, suffered a full default on all bonds.

Alexander Afonin, head of bond market analysis at the Sinara investment bank, said that in terms of the volume of overdue payments, 2026 is already noticeably ahead of 2025 - 41 billion rubles against 34 billion. Analysts say the main reason for non-payments is the protracted period of high rates and weak economic growth, due to which companies cannot attract financing, and current profits are not enough to fulfill obligations.

According to ACRA, in 2026 the volume of bonds in default will still not exceed five percent of the entire market, which is considered the conditional limit of the “wave of defaults.” However, experts do not expect the process to stop in 2027, which could lead to overcoming this mark.