AI systems are constantly becoming more efficient, yet there is a growing question about what they can actually predict. So we asked nine chatbots: Who will win Nobel Prizes in 2026? In addition to fame, this prestigious scientific award awards an amount of approximately one million euros to each winner and a gold medal bearing the image of Alfred Nobel.
A 'safe bet' for the Nobel Prize in Medicine
Let's start with this: Traditional Nobel Prizes are awarded in five categories: Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, Literature, and Peace. In this context, it is also often referred to as the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, which is not one of the original Nobel Prizes.
We asked nine AI systems, mostly from the USA plus one from China, Europe and Africa, who will be awarded Nobel Prizes this year and for what achievements. In some areas the systems largely agree.
For example in the Nobel Prize in Medicine: Here the majority of artificial neural networks choose discovery and research related to GLP-1. This abbreviation refers to an intestinal hormone produced by the body that tells us humans that we are full. This has resulted in the discovery of drugs to treat diabetes and obesity such as semaglutide, known from Ozempic's so-called "weight loss injection."
Six of the AI systems questioned agreed that this topic deserves the award. Five of them decided to award the Nobel Prize to three people in recognition of their research on GLP-1: Daniel J. Drucker of the University of Toronto, Jens Juul Holst of the University of Copenhagen and Svetlana Moisesov of the Rockefeller University in New York.
“This is the clearest prize since the mRNA vaccine,” one AI system wrote. “Obesity and type 2 diabetes have killed more people than most wars.” Another system saw these three scholars as “the most confirmed choice in years.”
Candidates in the fields of literature and chemistry
Nobel Prizes can be awarded to up to three people. In the field of literature, the award is traditionally awarded to one person.
Here, five out of eight artificial intelligence systems in the survey believe that the Chinese writer Ding Xiaohua, who writes under the pseudonym “Kan Xue,” will be the next winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature. This writer, born in 1953, has already been nominated for the award in recent years.
In the field of chemistry, five artificial intelligence systems are betting on researcher David R. Liu from Harvard University. This 53-year-old researcher and his team have developed techniques that allow DNA letters to be rewritten specifically.
Through what is known as “base editing” and “priming editing,” it may become possible in the future to change the genetic material of plants as well as humans.
In the field of physics, the result is less clear: however, British researcher Nicola A. Spaldin of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich led the nominations with four votes. This materials researcher works on the foundations of what are known as “Multiferroika”. These are materials that possess, for example, magnetic and electrical properties at the same time.
Disagreement over Nobel Peace Prize nominee
The machines were not at all consistent in their predictions about the Nobel Peace Prize. The nominations ranged from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons and the Russian human rights organization Memorial, all the way to climate activist Greta Thunberg.
But this also explains how AI systems obtain their information to reach conclusions. Answers are often based on publicly available indicators such as the number of citations, industry awards, media reports, or lists of forecasts.
While information about the Nobel Peace Prize is sparse, natural scientists in particular are prominent. The Clarivat list is an important resource, annually mentioning the most cited researchers as potential Nobel Prize candidates. Several AI favorites appear on that list as well.
Artificial intelligence makes many mistakes
Chatbots of various AI systems also sometimes made mistakes. For example, Chat included GPT, one of the winners of the Nobel Prize in Mathematics when there is no Nobel Prize in Mathematics.
As for the artificial intelligence "Copilot", it wanted to give the award to a candidate who had already died. According to the Nobel Prize system, this is only allowed in exceptional cases, that is, when the winner or winner dies after the announcement of the victory but before the award ceremony.
In light of such errors, it is better for the Nobel Prizes to be awarded by real people. The names that will eventually join the exclusive circle of famous laureates, such as Marie Curie, Mother Teresa, Albert Einstein, Barack Obama, Robert Koch and Max Planck, will be announced as of October 5.
Speaking of the German winners: only the French artificial intelligence “Mistral” expects a German woman to be among the winners in 2026. According to his opinion, Andrea Ablaser will receive the Nobel Prize in Medicine. At 43 years old, this immunologist will be a very young winner, as the average age of winners is 60 years.
Prepared in Arabic by: M.A.M
Edited by: Arif Jabo
