US Midterm Elections 2026: Where will you win and where will you lose?
Author, Mike Hills
Role, BBC Visual News Team
Published 6 minutes ago
Reading time: 4 minutes
American voters will go to the polls on November 3 to decide how the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency will unfold.
Thousands of elections will be held across the United States, covering various levels of government positions. But the most important elections for voters will be those for members of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Together these two chambers form the Congress.
Both chambers are currently controlled by the president's Republican Party. Trump's success or failure in the remaining two years of his administration may depend on the outcome of the election.
The following graphic guide will take you through where the battle for power will be decided, from approval ratings, key races and issues, to the huge sums of money invested in them.
For Trump, this midterm election comes at a bad time
One reason why the opposition Democrats have a chance to regain control of Congress is the president's low approval rating, which is usually an important indicator of his party's performance.
According to data from the polling information website Silver Bulletin, Trump's approval rating was slightly above 50% when he began his second presidential term, but it soon fell to the 40% range.
At the end of February this year, when Trump decided to launch air strikes against Iran with Israel, his approval rating hovered at about 42%; but it fell below 40% soon after. It is currently about 37%.
Eight years ago, at the same stage of his first presidential term, Trump's approval rating was significantly higher, at 43%. Joe Biden's approval rating at the same point in his term was 40%. Both lost control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections but retained the Senate.
Still, Trump's low approval ratings help explain why Democrats are hopeful of winning both chambers of Congress and why they are targeting states that have been consistently won by Republicans in recent years.
House of Representatives election
The Republican Party currently holds an extremely slim majority in the House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress. They have 218 seats, just the number needed to control the House of Representatives, and one independent member who votes with the Republicans.
Representatives serve two-year terms, so all 435 seats will be up for election in November.
However, most constituencies are not considered hotly contested because the incumbent party has solid support and the outcome is virtually unquestionable.
The Cook Political Report, which analyzes campaigns and elections, noted that only 21 districts are classified as "toss-up," with either party likely to win.
Among these 21 tight districts, 15 seats are currently held by Republicans and six seats are held by Democrats. If Democrats win five of those seats, plus 28 districts classified as Democratic-leaning or likely to be won by Democrats, they will gain control of the House of Representatives.
Historically, midterm elections often see a large number of House seats change hands, often reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the White House. Based on data going back to 1934, the president's party loses an average of 27 seats. In these 23 elections, the president's party gained seats only three times.
Senate race
The Republicans have a slightly stronger advantage in the Senate, holding 53 of the 100 seats; the Democrats have 45 seats, and there are two independent members who vote with the Democrats.
Senators serve six-year terms, so approximately one-third of the seats are up for election every two years.
There will be 35 seats up for election in November, but analysis by the Cook Political Report shows that only seven of them are in districts where the outcome is uncertain and could be won by any party.
Of those tight seats, six are currently held by Republicans and one by Democrats. The Democratic Party must win four of these seats, plus four seats rated as Democratic-leaning or likely to be won by the Democratic Party, to reach 51 seats and gain control of the Senate.
But winning a majority will not be easy for Democrats.
They must keep their seat in Michigan. Polls show that Democrats may not be happy to see the state's race so close. The race is fierce between left-wing political novice Abdul El-Sayed and his Republican opponent, Trump ally and former FBI agent Mike Rogers.
In addition, they must capture seats in states that Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa (Iowa/Iowa) and Ohio.
However, polls show they don't have a chance, even in Texas. If former teacher James Talarico defeats current state attorney general and close Trump ally Ken Paxton, he would become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988.
What issues are voters most concerned about?
Trump promised to "end inflation and make America Affordable Again" during the 2024 campaign, but the cost-of-living crisis has proven to remain the top issue for voters.
In his State of the Union address on February 24, the president proudly stated that gasoline prices in most states "have now fallen below US$2.30 per gallon (US$0.61 per liter; 4.07 yuan; NT$19.56)." However, the outbreak of war with Iran four days later disrupted energy supplies in the Middle East, causing the price of gasoline in the United States to rise to US$4 per gallon (US$1.06 per liter; 7.08 yuan; NT$34).
As the impact of the war spread around the world, its popularity continued to decline, ultimately directly impacting the wallets of American consumers. A poll conducted in August found that 63% of respondents disapproved of the way Trump was handling the situation.
Other issues considered important to voters include health care and immigration.
Trump has recently touted the effectiveness of his immigration policies, noting that the number of people crossing the border has dropped significantly compared with recent years.
Many Democratic candidates focused on the high cost of health insurance in the United States and the impact of Trump's legislation on people's access to medical services.
Can Trump break the laws of politics?
Most signs point to Democrats poised to do well in the midterm elections, but if Republicans win more seats than expected, it wouldn't be the first time Trump and his party outperform poll predictions.
One of the few factors working in Republicans' favor is their massive financial advantage.
As of the end of August, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups held more than US$600 million (4.020 billion yuan; NT$19.297 billion) in cash, while the Democratic Party had slightly less than US$400 million (2.68 billion yuan; NT$12.864 billion).
In addition, the Republican Party also has more than $400 million in funds controlled by Trump’s MAGA Inc group. The organization is the main fundraising and spending arm of the "Make America Great Again" political movement.
Republicans are using this financial advantage to buy ads.
