More than half of 2026 has passed. Although the growth rate of fixed asset investment has fluctuated in curves, what is more worthy of attention than the total number is the structural changes taking place under the water. There is a deep differentiation between traditional driving forces and new driving forces.
The investment logic has shifted from “scale expansion” to “quality improvement”.
The most prominent feature of fixed asset investment since 2026 is that investment in real estate development has continued to decline deeply, and investment in high-tech industries has maintained steady growth.
From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 4,797.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9%, which directly dragged down the overall investment growth. However, investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 3.5% year-on-year, investment in high-tech services increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and investment in information services, which is closely related to new industries such as artificial intelligence, increased by 22.7%.
The changes in the data are an objective reflection of the transformation of old and new development momentum and the transformation of investment from total expansion to quality improvement.
Traditional asset-heavy industries such as real estate, steel, chemicals, and large-scale infrastructure are characterized by large investment scales, long construction cycles, and high capital intensity. Their investments have a significant driving effect on the total volume. Technology-intensive industries such as software development, artificial intelligence, information services, R&D and design rely more on human capital and intellectual capital investment, and the scale of fixed asset investment is relatively small. As the economic structure shifts from "reinforced concrete" to "chip code", the fixed asset investment required for the same increase in GDP will naturally decrease.
This change in "investment intensity" is the inevitable result of the upgrading of the economic structure and is also an objective law of the high-quality development stage. At present, the investment logic is shifting from “scale expansion” to “quality improvement” and from “paving the way” to “stepping up the ladder”.
For example, from January to August, investment in intellectual property products across the country increased by 9.2% year-on-year, accounting for 15.2% of all investment. The rapid growth of this data shows that the engine of economic growth is shifting from capital accumulation to technological innovation, and also confirms the trend of investment changing from "tangible assets" to "intangible assets."
Policies have been implemented intensively with unprecedented intensity.
Current investment is highly dependent on policy drivers. The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 clearly stated that in 2026, we should "promote investment to stop falling and stabilize." Policies are being implemented intensively around this goal.
In terms of government investment, the core measure is to speed up the investment and use of various government funds and form a physical workload as soon as possible. The National Development and Reform Commission has made clear efforts from three aspects to promote the stabilization of investment and structural optimization. First, promote all types of government investment to be put in place as soon as possible, coordinate the "double" construction, seize the peak construction season in the third quarter, accelerate the investment and use of 800 billion yuan of new policy financial instruments, and speed up the issuance and use of special bonds. Second, promote the accelerated construction of major engineering projects with mature conditions and solidly advance the 109 major projects proposed in the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline. Third, collaboratively promote the planning and construction of “six networks”, as well as the planning and construction of five major infrastructure and public service facilities including comprehensive three-dimensional transportation, low-altitude economy, “artificial intelligence +”, consumption, education and medical care. New policy financial instruments are expected to leverage a total project investment scale of approximately 10 trillion yuan.
In terms of stimulating private investment, the government has introduced a package of fiscal and financial support policies, which is unprecedentedly powerful. This year, the central government has specially allocated 100 billion yuan to launch a package of 6 fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand and coordinate the promotion of consumption and investment expansion, 4 of which support private investment. In the first half of the year alone, four investment promotion policies benefited private investment exceeding 1.24 trillion yuan.
In terms of reform measures to stimulate economic vitality, the government strives to remove institutional barriers and optimize the investment environment. Various localities have introduced specific measures to promote the development of private investment. The national level emphasizes the need to "adhere to the close integration of investment in things and investment in people", which reflects the change in investment philosophy from purely pursuing scale expansion to paying more attention to people's development and improvement of people's livelihood.
The investment direction has changed, but there are many investment opportunities.
Facing the current challenges faced by fixed asset investment, the government has sufficient capabilities and sufficient policy space to maintain the bottom line and ensure basic economic growth and people's livelihood and well-being.
In terms of funding guarantee, the government’s funding guarantee will be sufficient in the second half of the year. The issuance of new special bonds in June has accelerated significantly, 800 billion yuan of new policy financial instruments will be accelerated and effective, and the 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment continues to develop.
In terms of policy reserves, the government has made it clear that it will "stimulate the endogenous motivation for investment with greater intensity." There are sufficient reserves of various incremental policy tools that can be launched at appropriate times according to changes in the situation.
In terms of project support, the planning and construction of the 109 major projects, the "six networks" and the five major infrastructure proposed in the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline are advancing in an orderly manner, with sufficient project reserves.
Investment is expected to gradually stabilize with policy support, and the decline in fixed asset investment is expected to gradually narrow. The long-term fundamentals of China's economy have not changed, and the optimization and upgrading of the investment structure is accumulating more solid momentum for high-quality development and bringing new investment opportunities.
In the future, accelerating capital investment, broadening investment areas, and deepening reforms will be the three directions of effort. In terms of investment direction, we should focus on the conversion of old and new driving forces, and tap investment potential in areas such as technological transformation of traditional industries, research on key core technologies, urban renewal, rural infrastructure construction, and high-quality supply of people's livelihood.
For China today, the direction of investment has changed, but there are not many investment opportunities - it’s just that new opportunities require new eyes to discover and new mechanisms to undertake.
Author: Liu Qing, Executive Dean and Professor of the National Institute of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China
("Sanlihe" Studio)
