Mayawati showed strength, which side will Dalits be on in 2027 elections?

BSP had demonstrated strength in Lucknow's Eco Garden five months before the Uttar Pradesh elections.

On October 9, two programs were organized on the death anniversary of Bahujan Samaj Party founder Kanshi Ram.

While Mayawati paid tribute to Kanshi Ram at Mall Avenue, BSP workers participated in the program at Eco Garden.

The workers who reached Eco Garden pledged to make Mayawati the Chief Minister again.

During this, Mayawati targeted the current government and said, "Making some people feel good does not lead to development and prosperity."

He also demanded Bharat Ratna for Kanshi Ram.

BSP does not have any elected representative

The question is, what message does Mayawati want to give to her core supporters with this new demand?

However, the purpose of this gathering was also to show that Mayawati still has a hold on Dalit votes.

Although this was not a rally but BSP had given the slogan of Lucknow Chalo.

Mayawati wrote on Twitter, "It was a happy result of Kanshi Ram ji's missionary determination that in a huge and important state like Uttar Pradesh, BSP government was formed four times under my leadership."

He claimed, "Through this, historic works of 'social transformation and economic liberation' were accomplished."

However, despite formation of coalition government thrice in the state and once with full majority of BSP, the party is currently in a weak position.

BSP does not have a single representative in both the houses of Parliament and the state. After the death of the party's only elected MLA in 2022, a void was created in the Assembly.

Many contenders for Dalit votes

According to the 2011 census, the population of Dalits in UP is more than 4 crores.

In Uttar Pradesh, which has 403 assembly seats, 84 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes. Two seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes.

The Dalit population in the state is about 20-21 percent. This population has a direct influence on more than 140 assembly seats.

All the major parties including Bahujan Samaj Party, Bharatiya Janata Party and Samajwadi Party alliance are active in wooing this vote bank.

Mayawati said in her speech on October 9, "Kanshi Ram has given the master key to power to the crores of Dalits, tribals, backward and other weaker sections, especially those of 'Bahujan Samaj' who have been broken and defeated on the basis of caste in the country for centuries."

However, within twenty years of Kanshi Ram's demise, Mission BSP is in its weakest position.

Sanjay Prasad of CSDS told Frontline that Mayawati's votes have been declining since the 2012 assembly elections.

Senior journalist Rachna Saran says, "The reason for this decline is that the people with Mayawati are now in other parties, the cadre of the second party is not as active as before."

Samajwadi Party wants to form an alliance of PDA i.e. Backward Dalits. At the same time, Congress has recently made Rajendra Pal Gautam in charge of UP in place of Avinash Pandey, who comes from Dalit community.

At the national level too, Congress is also trying to bring Dalits together through Mallikarjun Kharge who comes from Dalit community.

Political analyst Siddharth Kalahans says, "Dalits are now looking towards Congress apart from Mayawati, the proof of this is the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, in which India Alliance got the maximum of 43 seats and BSP has reached zero."

Western UP is considered Mayawati's stronghold, but in Nagina, Chandrashekhar of ASP Azad Samaj Party won from the reserved seat, but the BSP candidate got very less votes on this seat.

ASP, which claims to give strong representation to Dalits in this assembly election, is also trying to enter the fray with strength.

Party's vote percentage continuously down

The biggest political challenge before the BSP is to increase the vote bank, because the party's vote percentage is continuously falling.

Senior journalist Rachna Saran said, "It is a question of do or die for BSP because the party has not been able to win a single seat in the 2022 assembly elections and not a single seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections."

He said, "In this situation no one is questioning Mayawati's leadership, she is the undisputed leader within the party."

However, Samajwadi Party has the pitch of PDA. Because of this, their hold on non-Jatav votes is getting stronger. This has also been proved by the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

According to CSDS, India Alliance had got 56 percent of non-Jatav votes and 25 percent of Jatav votes among Dalits.

India Alliance also got 92 percent Muslim votes and 82 percent Yadav votes.

But BJP got only 29 percent votes of non-Jatav. However in 2019 it was 48 percent.

Many parties also claim the extremely backward vote of Mayawati, SubhaSP claims to represent Rajbhar Samaj, Suhail Dev Bharatiya Samaj Party and Nishad Party in the name of Nishad Samaj.

Most of these votes were earlier with BSP. But BJP and allies have also made a dent.

CSDS professor Sanjay Prasad told Frontline that BSP has seen a decline in Dalit and extremely backward votes.

At the same time, Mayawati's political activity has also reduced. Because of this the organization of BSP has become weak. Mayawati's political activity has been limited after the government came to power in UP in 2012.

Senior journalist Rachna Saran said, "BSP is no longer visible on the streets. However, if Mayawati still returns to her old attitude, the situation may change, but for this we will have to come out on the streets."

However, since the NDA government came to power at the Center after 2014, Mayawati has been soft on the government and hot on Congress. Because of this his edge has diminished.

Recently, in the NEET paper leak case, he criticized its politicization and advised to avoid confrontation.

Leadership crisis in BSP

Experts believe that there is a leadership crisis in BSP at present. After Mayawati, there were many leaders who worked to strengthen BSP.

Naseemuddin Siddiqui once held the number two position in the party. But now he is in Samajwadi Party.

Same is the condition of Babu Singh Kushwaha, who is Samajwadi Party MP from Jaunpur.

Swami Prasad Maurya joined SP after BJP and then formed his own party and became a part of India Alliance.

Brajesh Pathak and Dara Singh Chauhan are with BJP.

Now only Satish Mishra is left among the old leaders.

Mayawati tried many times to put forward her nephew Akash Anand.

This week, Mayawati has appointed Akash Anand as the national coordinator of the party.

Earlier, Mayawati had expelled Akash Anand from the party because of his father-in-law Ashok Siddharth. Mayawati had placed a condition that if Ashok Siddharth retired from politics, she would take Akash Anand back into BSP.

Apart from Akash Anand, Mayawati's brother Anand Kumar looks after the functioning of the party. Apart from this, Mayawati has also given party work to her nephew Ishaan Anand.

'Doubts about Akash in BSP'

Senior journalist Rachna Saran says, "People close to BSP say that the matter of removing and bringing back Akash Anand several times is not political but family."

People within BSP are seeing him as the new leader. However, their role is not yet clear.

Political analyst Syed Qasim said, "Aakash Anand will work for the party as per Mayawati and if everything goes well, he can emerge as the new leader in the party."

But some political analysts have a different opinion.

Siddharth Kalhans said, "With Mayawati repeatedly ousting Akash Anand, the BSP cadre will not connect with him the way it did when he first joined the party."

He said, "The popularity of Nagina MP Chandrashekhar is increasing among the Dalit class. His increasing popularity especially among the youth is a matter of concern for Akash Anand."

Kalhans' logic behind this is, "There were Ambedkarites along with Kanshi Ram and Mayawati. But there has been a split among them. After the coming of BJP, this class is going with Congress."

However, he says that its percentage can be debated.

Meanwhile, senior journalist Rachna Saran said, "Mayawati has brought Akash only to kill Chandrashekhar, but is not giving him freedom."

Which side will Dalits be on in the 2027 elections?

India Alliance raised the issue of Constitution and reservation in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This also gave benefits and Congress seats increased in the entire country.

But all parties are assessing which direction Dalits will take in 2027.

All parties are eyeing the Dalit vote, which is considered the core vote of BSP.

Assembly elections are likely to be held in Uttar Pradesh in February-March 2027.

Mayawati and her party have only five months left. However, all parties have only so much time. But this time is important for Mayawati because she is neither in the ruling party nor in the main opposition. Therefore, the challenge before them is greater.

There are 403 assembly seats in the state. However, BSP has already announced many candidates.

According to analysts, BSP may have to face many challenges in the state elections.

Regarding this, senior journalist Rachna Saran says, "Apart from the Hindutva and social fabric of BJP, the solution to the alliance between Akhilesh Yadav and Congress also has to be found."

At the same time, political analyst Syed Qasim claims, "It is not right to assess the BSP right now. A political assessment can be made only after the alliance of all the political parties is formed on the ground by November."

He said, "A lot will depend on what happens to the India Alliance of the Samajwadi Party and the Congress."

However, Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav has said many times that he is with India Alliance. Akhilesh Yadav is continuously claiming the politics of unity of PDA.

He has also changed the uniform of his party's student body to blue. On the lines of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, he can make Dalits candidates on general seats also.

Will anyone form an alliance with BSP in 2027?

Senior journalist Rachna Saran says, "Many BSP strategists believe that BSP's alliance with Congress could be a 1993 moment for the party."

In the 1993 assembly elections, BSP had got 67 seats in alliance with Samajwadi Party. At that time, even after the demolition of Babri Masjid, BJP could not get majority.

After this, the government was formed under the leadership of Mulayam Singh. But after the guest house incident in Lucknow, BSP withdrew its support.

BSP alleged that Mulayam Singh's people had tried to kidnap BSP MLAs. During this protest, there was an incident of assault with Mayawati.

Mayawati became Chief Minister for the first time in 1995 with the support of BJP. She also became Chief Minister in 1997 and 2002 with the support of BJP.

In the year 2007, BSP government was formed in Uttar Pradesh with full majority.

But political analyst Syed Qasim says, "Congress will have to take the initiative for alliance with BSP. This can happen only if the SP-Congress alliance breaks."

He said, "Congress will have to take the initiative because Mayawati does not go to anyone for an alliance. Earlier in 2004, Sonia Gandhi herself had met Mayawati in Delhi. Before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Samajwadi Party had to take the initiative."

However, this possibility is less because Samajwadi Party has 37 MPs in the Lok Sabha. Because of this, the strength of the India alliance remains.

Political analyst Siddharth Kalhans says, "Whatever may be the dispute over seats between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, the alliance will not break. At the same time, the BSP is facing many problems. Especially the Congress is not comfortable with Mayawati."