Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the People's Liberation Army to have the ability to seize Taiwan by force before 2027. However, Reuters exclusively reported today (1st) that U.S. officials believe that the chance of China's invasion of Taiwan will be significantly reduced before 2028. Chinese officials are eager for the 2028 election to usher in a government that is more pliant and willing to accept China's control of Taiwan. The report pointed out that if current President Lai Ching-te wins re-election, the possibility of China using force against Taiwan after 2028 may increase.
According to a Reuters report, two current U.S. officials, a former U.S. official and a person familiar with the situation pointed out that the main reasons why China has lowered its chances of attacking Taiwan include delays in military preparations caused by the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign and Beijing’s expectations for the results of the 2028 election.
The previously unreported assessment is a major update to what U.S. officials have understood for years. Previously, the United States generally believed that Xi Jinping wanted his military to be prepared to seize Taiwan by force before the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army in 2027.
The U.S. Department of Defense declined to comment on the report.
Regarding the U.S. factor, sources have different opinions on whether China will regard the 2028 U.S. election as an indicator for the use of force. People familiar with the matter pointed out that U.S. voters' aversion to overseas military operations may make Beijing wait and see, but U.S. officials believe that the two parties have a consistent stance on Taiwan and that the general election is no longer a decisive factor. In addition, Trump has downplayed the possibility of China's invasion of Taiwan during his term and said that Xi Jinping promised not to use force during his term. After their meeting last week, he also emphasized that the other party understood his position. However, since his visit to China in May, Trump has still suspended approval of an approximately US$14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, treating it as a bargaining chip.
The report further analyzed that Xi Jinping has not revoked his goal of requiring the People's Liberation Army to have the ability to attack Taiwan next year. However, affected by China's large-scale anti-corruption and disciplinary rectification campaign, the military's preparation progress last year did not meet expectations. Since 2012, millions of officials have been purged under investigation, and the People's Liberation Army has become the focus of reorganization in recent years. A series of investigations and expulsions have left the Central Military Commission, which used to consist of seven people, with only two current officials, including Xi Jinping himself, who is also the chairman, causing a substantial impact on the high-level operations of the military.
U.S. officials revealed that China's military exercises last year were smaller and less threatening. Although they have picked up this year, the military is still dissatisfied with the state of war preparations. The United States assesses that China has learned lessons from the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East and realized that once it launches aggression, it must act quickly to avoid falling into a long-term tug-of-war. U.S. officials pointed out that attacking Taiwan may be the most difficult military operation since the Allied invasion of Normandy. At present, the Chinese military "still has too many links that have not yet been put in place," and the conditions for launching a large-scale invasion in the short term are not yet mature.
