An analysis was raised on the 20th (local time) that the overt pro-Russian stance of the US administration of Donald Trump between Russia and Ukraine, which have been at war for five years, is in line with President Trump's plan to reorganize the world order.
It has recently become more evident that President Trump appears to be trying to side with Russia, which started the war, instead of with Ukraine, its ally. Through President Trump's public remarks and the Trump administration's practical actions, the picture is being revealed like putting together a puzzle piece.
President Trump effectively halted the supply of Patriot missiles, which are essential to Ukraine's air defense. Information sharing to detect Russian airstrikes in advance is also not being done properly. At one point, it even neutralized Ukraine's drone operation by restricting Starlink access.
Experts generally agree that this is an attempt to put pressure on Ukraine. The pressure is to recognize the territory occupied by Russia and agree to an end to the war. He urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who refused to do so, to resign, saying, "It is time for Ukraine to have a new president."
President Trump told reporters the day before, "We gave Ukraine a lot. They gave us nothing." On social media, President Zelenskyy posted that he "does not want to end this war" because of the money and weapons he receives from Europe.
President Trump's attitude toward Ukraine is very different from his attitude toward Russia. He signed an agreement that opened the way for Russian diesel exports, and also canceled the high tariffs that had been imposed on countries importing it. Energy sales help finance Russia's war.
President Trump invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit to be held in the United States in December. In response to speculation that he will hold a three-party meeting with President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the occasion of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting to be held in Shenzhen, China next month, he said, "I will be willing to do so."
What is the intention of President Trump's pro-Russian actions, which are drawing criticism from not only the Democratic Party but also the Republican Party in the United States, and which allies around the world, including Europe, look at with concern. The New York Times (NYT) recalled the 'Yalta Conference' of February 1945.
The Yalta Conference was a meeting where the leaders of the United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union (now Russia) gathered ahead of the end of World War II to discuss Germany's postwar handling, issues in Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula, and the creation of the United Nations (UN). In that place, a post-war world order centered on powerful countries was drawn.
If a trilateral summit between the United States, China, and Russia is held at APEC in November, it will mean that the leaders of the military powers with the first to third largest nuclear weapons in the world will gather in one place. It overlaps with the Yalta Conference between Franklin D. Roosevelt (US), Winston Churchill (English), and Joseph Stalin (So).
The NYT predicted that if a three-party summit is held, President Putin will seek to expand the agenda not only to the war in Ukraine but also to nuclear disarmament, trade, and international security. For Russia, it can move away from its status as a 'war criminal country relative to Ukraine' and position itself as a 'key power that discusses world order with the United States and China.'
President Trump said the day before, “I will be going to China in November to discuss denuclearization, so they (Xi Jinping and Putin) want to meet according to my proposal.” The NYT explained that this is closer to nuclear disarmament than denuclearization, given that there is no way the US, China, and Russia will give up nuclear armament.
In this process, just as the fate of Poland or Korea, which escaped colonial rule after World War II, was decided regardless of their will, there is a possibility that Ukraine, the 'victim', will be excluded from discussions on the Ukraine issue between the United States, China, and Russia.
The NYT pointed out that, similar to the Yalta Conference, which recognized the interests of major powers, this could lead to 'regionalization of the world' in which President Trump, President Xi, and President Putin confirm their influence in their respective areas.
President Trump's attempt to bring Russia, which was internationally isolated due to the Ukraine war, to the world's major diplomatic stages (G20 and APEC) is similar to the attempt by then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2014 to integrate Russia into the West through economic appeasement.
At the time, Chancellor Merkel signed a contract with Russia to build the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and called President Putin a "reliable supplier." The NYT observed, “Trump is now taking on the role that Merkel played in the past.”
“It is unprecedented for the United States to change ‘sides’ during a war like this,” said Richard Haas, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Despite the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, the defense of Taiwan was separately guaranteed, and the United States never sided with communist Vietnam or made a deal with the Taliban during the Vietnam War and the Afghanistan War.
The NYT pointed out that Chancellor Merkel's attempt to incorporate Russia into the West failed due to the invasion of Ukraine. The Yalta Conference also resulted in the postwar East-West Cold War system.
