Trump's coalition has collapsed, so what will Republicans do now?

Republicans are entering a period of self-examination after the coalition that led Donald Trump to win the party's presidential nomination three times in a row collapsed resoundingly in the 2026 midterm elections.

The shocking electoral defeat immediately raised questions about the party's post-Trump future.

But there are no easy answers, as Republicans face the choice of continuing with the “Trumpism” approach, or trying to chart a new path during Trump’s final years in office.

Outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis summed up the scale of the problem when he described the midterm elections as 'a near-extinction event for Republicans.'

Others took a more optimistic tone. Vice President J.D. Vance, who blamed the results on public anger over the war with Iran, saw the party as capable of regaining its momentum. But at the same time, he acknowledged that the repercussions would be messy.

'There will be a lot of disagreement and debate about what happened and why it happened,' Vance said.

This wide disparity in reactions on the right highlights the deep divisions in the party that were formed by Trump's unexpected rise to the presidency in 2016, divisions that never really disappeared.

It is still too early to say which movement will prevail. But while Republicans are still trying to recover from their shock, the infighting that Vance predicted has already begun.

Reena Shah, a Republican strategist, told the BBC that the party must decide whether it will be 'centered around one personality, one man, or around a broader set of ideas such as a conservative approach that can win outside the areas most loyal to the Republican Party'.

Trump's critics on the right, known as Never Trumpers who opposed his first campaign for the White House, are pushing for a return to the Republican Party's pre-Trump roots, citing the party's historic losses nationwide on election night.

But turning the clock back to the pre-Trump era will be very difficult, if not impossible.

The party witnessed a complete transformation during the decade in which Trump dominated the scene. Most Republicans have moved to the right on domestic issues such as immigration, and have rejected the interventionist foreign policy that characterized the George W. Bush era and led to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In Congress, the traditional, more moderate wing of the party, which was uncomfortable with Trump from the beginning, has almost disappeared, to be replaced by conservative supporters of Trump echoing his populist and nationalist rhetoric.

This trend continued this year, as old-guard Republicans lost their electoral seats, such as John Cornyn in Texas and Susan Collins in Maine, both of whom had clashed with Trump over the years.

Three days after the election, Trump appointed Stephen Miller as the new White House chief of staff, succeeding Susie Wiles.

The move indicated that Trump does not intend to moderate his policies or rhetoric during his remaining years in office. Miller, who served as the president's senior domestic policy adviser, was a longtime close aide to Trump and was known for his hard-line stances on immigration.

Steve Bannon, one of the architects of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement linked to President Trump, predicted the outbreak of a "civil war" within the party after the midterm elections.

He later blamed the Republican defeat on the economy and 'foreign wars'. He said: “I do not think we have implemented the MAGA program,” calling on Trump to move forward with mass deportations.

But other Republican strategists said that the elections constituted a wake-up call for MAGA loyalists, who want Trump's political movement to continue after the end of his presidency.

“There are still a large number of MAGA voters who have supported Donald Trump through thick and thin,” said Whit Ayers, a Republican strategist.

He added: 'But there is also a large segment of the Republican Party that is not affiliated with MAGA, and this segment has now become the majority.'

The party lost control of the House and Senate, as well as governorships and legislatures in Republican states like Texas and Kansas, where Democrats have been excluded from power for decades and where Trump won by a wide margin as a candidate on the ballot.

These surprising results highlighted the volatile nature of political alliances.

Trump has expanded the Republican base in 2024, by increasing support among Latino voters, young people, and other important groups. Republicans viewed these gains as evidence of the party's future strength.

But after just two years, the party lost ground in most crucial electoral areas. According to a New York Times analysis of voter data, support for Democratic candidates among Latino voters rose by 29 percentage points between 2024 and 2026. Support for young people between the ages of 18 and 29 also increased by 33 points.

These shifts appeared in the results of opinion polls that preceded the midterm elections, which showed widespread dissatisfaction with Trump’s management of the issues of the economy, immigration, and the war with Iran.

Democrats also benefited from the prevailing public impression that the Trump family and his administration were mired in conflicts of interest and corruption. The president's focus on the White House Ballroom project and other construction projects in Washington has contributed to a feeling among voters that he is more concerned with his personal legacy than addressing cost-of-living issues.

That sentiment is also shared by Benjamin Schrader, president of Young Republicans in Austin, who seemed still in shock when he spoke to the BBC in Texas, the morning after what he described as a Democratic 'blue tsunami' that nearly wiped out his party in the state.

Trump remains a "force of nature," Shrader said when asked about the president using his first public appearance after the results to promote the White House Ballroom project.

But he hesitated before adding: 'If I were in his place, I would focus on the issues that concern people, not on celebration halls or on renaming things.' 'I would focus on real priorities.'

Indications that emerged in the immediate aftermath of the midterm elections suggest that Republicans may benefit from distancing themselves from Trump in preparation for the 2028 elections.

Vance tried to balance his assessment of the election results, blaming the war with Iran and at the same time calling for a return to the slogan 'America First'. It was a measured criticism, distancing himself from Trump on the unpopular issue of war, but sticking to a broader political brand that remains popular among MAGA's base.

The party will closely monitor Trump's next steps regarding Iran, due to the repercussions they may have on the 2028 race. Any escalation may fuel the fears expressed by Vance and other supporters of 'America First'.

In his post-election analytical statement on the 'X' platform, Vance also reiterated the growing calls within the right to reconsider American support for Israel. But he has also shown openness to making some changes in immigration enforcement policies, which is at odds with the position of Stephen Miller, an ally of Vance, who led the administration's immigration agenda during the second term.

Party strategists said that the harsh defeat in the midterm elections made Vance's path to the nomination more complicated.

Ayers, the Republican strategist, said: “Before this election, J.D. Vance was the most likely candidate to win the Republican nomination in 2028. But after these elections, the nomination race has become wide open.”

Potential candidates to succeed Trump have some time to consider their options, but they will have to make their decisions relatively soon. Anyone who aspires to run in the 2028 presidential elections will face pressure to announce his candidacy in the coming months. Some of them may launch their campaigns before the end of the year.

Trump has praised Vance and Rubio on various occasions, but typically avoids answering questions about who he would prefer to succeed him.

His endorsement will remain the most ambiguous and influential factor in the 2028 Republican primaries.

“It remains to be seen who will enter this race,” Ayers said.

He added: 'But I think it will be much larger and more diverse than we expected before the midterm elections.'