
Average weekly flows of non-Iranian crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz rose to exceed pre-war levels of 18 million barrels per day for the first time since the conflict began, with increasing use of alternative routes such as the Saudi East-West Pipeline and the UAE to Fujairah pipeline, while Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices declined.
AI-generated summary
Since war broke out in the Middle East with the US and Israel attacking Iran in late February, Iran has claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
For the first time since war broke out in the Middle East with the United States and Israel launching their attack on Iran in late February, average weekly flows of non-Iranian crude oil coming from the Gulf states and Iraq through the Strait of Hormuz rose for several consecutive days last week, exceeding the pre-war average of 18 million barrels per day.
These quantities include oil exports through the Red Sea, the route that is increasingly being used to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic corridor through which before the war, a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed.
Since the outbreak of the war, Iran says it controls the strait, while Washington, in return, imposes a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Iran now requires ships wishing to cross the Strait to obtain its approval, while ships that do not comply with this are at risk of attacks. However, oil tankers are crossing the Strait in increasing numbers to exit the Gulf under American protection.
Alternative routes to Hormuz
In addition to the recovery of oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, alternative routes are operating at full capacity.
Saudi Arabia, in particular, benefits from the restart of the East-West pipeline, which connects the main oil fields in the east of the Kingdom to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea in the west of the Kingdom, the largest exporter of crude oil in the world, after it was closed on September 11 following strikes targeting it from Iraq.
The UAE also has an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, thanks to a pipeline linking to the Fujairah terminal located outside the strait.
The price of Brent North Sea oil for December delivery fell around 3:10 GMT by 0.79% to $101.44 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery fell by 1.20% to $90.02 per barrel.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Non-Iranian oil flows through Hormuz will continue to rise if US protection of oil tankers continues
Likely · Within weeks
Iran may resort to escalation in response to increased US protection of oil tankers
Possible · Within weeks

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