Monitoring by the National Climate Center shows that in September 2026, a super strong El Niño has formed. It is expected that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will continue to rise in the next three months, reaching a peak in late autumn and early winter. What we are witnessing will be the strongest El Niño since systematic monitoring began in 1951. How to read this rare weather signal? What does the word "super strong" mean? What impact will it have? What precautions and responses do we need to make? "News 1+1" contacted Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster of the National Climate Center, and Xu Xiaofeng, president of the China Meteorological Services Association, to provide analysis and interpretation.
This time El Niño will develop particularly fast and become stronger
Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster of the National Climate Center: According to the monitoring of the National Climate Center, a super strong eastern-type El Niño event has occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. Compared with the three super events in history, this event has two notable features↓
First, the development speed is extremely fast. It only took 5 months for the El Niño state to become super strong, while the other three super strong El Niño events took 7 to 15 months.
Second, the intensity will be stronger. The maximum peak intensity in the previous three times was 2.8°C, and this time it may reach 3.2~3.5°C. This means that this El Niño event will be the strongest ever recorded.
El Niño does not directly cause extreme weather
What is the relationship between El Niño events and specific extreme weather events? Can we say that El Niño directly caused extreme weather?
Zhao Junhu: Since the development of El Niño in summer this year, it has had some impact on my country’s climate. Take this year's typhoons as an example. This year's typhoons are very extreme, with three typhoons landing in the same place in a row within 50 days. These rare phenomena are closely related to the rapid development of super strong El Niño. El Niño mainly affects the "place of origin" and "travel route" of typhoons. First, it causes the origin of the typhoon to move eastward; second, the route is highly variable; third, there are more typhoons "grouping together" and multiple typhoons coexist.
It should be noted that El Niño does not directly create a certain weather, but adjusts the atmospheric circulation background, significantly increasing the probability of extreme events.
This winter is more likely to be warmer
Warm winter and strong cold wave are not contradictory
There is news that this year will be a mild winter, but some analysts say that the cold wave weather this year will also be strong. This sounds contradictory. How should we understand it?
Zhao Junhu: The probability of a warm winter this year is relatively high. This is based on the statistical fact that the temperature in my country is generally higher in the winter of El Niño years. However, a warm winter refers to the average state of the entire winter, which does not mean that there will be no cold wave. Intermittent severe cold weather may also occur in warm winters. For example, last winter there were multiple strong cold waves. This is mainly because our country is located in the mid- and high-dimensional region of East Asia, and the winter climate is greatly affected by the mid- and high-dimensional climate. When the Siberian high pressure intensifies, it is easy to trigger a cold wave process. Therefore, there is no contradiction between a warm winter and a strong cold wave, and the public should pay more attention to the intermittent fluctuations in temperature.
Possible effects of El Niño
Disasters and impacts should be given greater attention
Super El Niño has a lag, and the sea surface temperature peak in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will appear in autumn and winter, but the greater impact will be in the spring and summer of next year. Faced with such characteristics, how should prevention and response work be carried out in a targeted manner? How to prevent the deviation of "emphasis on the present and underestimation of the long-term"?
Xu Xiaofeng, President of the China Meteorological Services Association: The National Climate Center has given a very firm conclusion on the impact of El Niño next year. It is not easy to make climate predictions, but such a unanimous opinion like this year is rare. This shows that we have given very strong signals to various factors in the entire early climate, and El Niño is recognized as the strongest signal in the entire climate prediction, so everyone attaches great importance to it.
This year in particular, the National Climate Center has been monitoring extreme levels, possibly the highest ever. In this case, attention should be paid to its possible impact. In addition, its impact has already been felt this year, but the stronger impact may not be until next summer. The last two super El Niño events - the 1998 floods and the 2016 Yangtze River floods - both caused great disasters. This year we have already predicted a super strong El Niño, even the strongest in history. We must pay greater attention to the possible disasters and impacts next year.
This winter is generally warm and highly volatile, meaning it is sometimes warm and sometimes cold, and there are more cold waves. We need to be prepared for these. Higher attention should be paid to the possible severe and extreme rainfall and regional disasters next year.
It is necessary to strengthen prevention against extreme, sudden changes, abnormal weather and other weather conditions
Our country is facing compound weather risks under the background of El Niño. The climate in the south and the north are different, and the extreme weather patterns encountered are also different. What suggestions do you have for the implementation of early warning at the grassroots level?
Xu Xiaofeng: When we make climate predictions, we often give an average value, such as too much, too much, too little, too much, etc. For specific disaster prevention and reduction departments, this information sometimes makes them confused when using it: Where is the "too much"? How is it distributed in time? Is it more at first and then less or sometimes more and sometimes less? We may not be able to provide accurate signals for this change in long-term climate predictions, which requires the entire meteorological department to strengthen its progressive forecasting and progressive services.
At the same time, our users and various departments must pay more attention to several aspects:
One is "extreme". In the context of global climate warming, especially the super strong El Niño, the probability of extreme weather is very high.
The second is "sharp turns". There will be drought and flood for a while. We are obviously fighting the drought, but suddenly a heavy rain or typhoon comes, and the drought and flood suddenly change.
The other one is "exception". It rained in a place where it doesn't usually rain. Although the rainfall was not heavy, the local bearing capacity was very poor. For example, the south can withstand a heavy rainstorm, but in the mountainous areas of the northwest, disaster will occur if only tens of millimeters of meters fall. Some mountainous areas may not be able to cope with this unusual rainfall, which may also be a problem.
There is also extreme “vulnerability.” In many areas, the disaster situation may not be very extreme or very strong according to conventional standards, but the place where it is located is very fragile. For example, the buildings are not good, or there are some special facilities that cannot withstand wind or rain. This also requires special attention.
For these points, they should be included in the prevention agenda and given more attention and consideration.
