How successful will India Bloc be in maintaining pressure on the government?

Ever since the Indian Express' investigative report on SIR came out, a kind of unity has been seen in the opposition alliance.

On October 12, leaders of the India Alliance took out a march and filed a petition in the Supreme Court in which they made several demands, including making the decision-making process of the Election Commission public.

The latest issue of the Election Commission is going to breathe a new life into the unity of the opposition Indian alliance, which has been losing elections one after the other for a long time.

However, the path of India alliance has been full of difficulties in the last few years. There are still protests against the functioning of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar and the Election Commission, but parties like DMK and Aam Aadmi Party are maintaining distance from the alliance.

On October 12, when the India Alliance marched to the Supreme Court, Aam Aadmi Party leaders were arrested separately.

The Election Commission issue has succeeded in reuniting the India block to some extent. Mamata Banerjee, who had kept distance during the West Bengal elections, is also together on this issue.

There are elections in Punjab now and distance remains between Aam Aadmi Party and Congress. Aam Aadmi Party is protesting along with CJP.

Widespread dissatisfaction amid questions raised about the role of the Election Commission in the elections has breathed new life into the Congress and the India Bloc, but will the India Bloc be able to maintain the momentum of these protests?

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Senior political analyst Neerja Chaudhary believes that 'the issue of functioning of the Election Commission can go a long way and depends on the wisdom of the India Bloc as to how it keeps the opposition united on national issues.'

Pressure is building from below

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Talking to BBC News Hindi, Neerja Chaudhary says, "The kind of response coming from the ground from Gen Z and the youth is inspiring the opposition parties to take such a stand."

She says, "This pressure does not seem to be reducing. What form it will take cannot be said yet. Will the protests continue like this or something else will happen."

It is worth noting that Cockroach Janata Party and India Alliance had announced protests from last two October and since then continuous demonstrations are taking place in the capital Delhi. However, this time the government did not allow the protesters to reach Jantar Mantar.

And after the CJP protest on 10 October, on 11 October the Union Home Ministry removed Jantar Mantar from the notified place of protest. Nevertheless the demonstrations continued.

On October 12, when the opposition parties called for a march to the Supreme Court, a large number of people gathered.

CJP founder Abhijeet Deepke, reacting to the denotification of Jantar Mantar, said that the entire country will become Jantar Mantar.

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On October 13, CJP's Ashutosh Ranka and Saurav Das reached inside Jantar Mantar despite heavy security where they were taken into custody. On Tuesday, he was sent to judicial custody for five days.

Deepke has now called on people to gather at the Central Park of Connaught Place, a short distance from Jantar Mantar on Friday.

Rahul Verma, Research Fellow at the Center for Policy Research, had said in BBC News Hindi's day-long podcast program on Tuesday that after the previous movement of CJP, such an environment is now being created that the possibility of continuation of the movement on some issue or the other has increased.

Neerja Chaudhary also believes that the mood is changing in the country.

He said, "In the case of NEET paper leak, the demand for improvement in the education system was such that it affected every family. People are still wondering whether the current movement will be able to go to that extent? However, people and the youth who are becoming voters for the first time are worried because there are many things related to it, for example, social welfare schemes, parents' pension, citizenship issue etc."

Questions have also arisen regarding the SIR process because approximately 13 crore names have been excluded from the voter list across the country.

What is the government's stance?

The way Delhi was transformed into a security fort, the protesters were detained.

The attitude of the police towards independent journalists and even mainstream media correspondents has been sharply criticized by the opposition, media organizations and human rights organizations.

But BJP has termed the current protests by CJP, Left parties and Congress as 'anarchy'.

On Monday, in BBC News Hindi's 'The Lens' programme, Professor Gaurav Vallabh, associated with BJP, said that 'the government does not want to suppress the right to dissent but the opposition should also be responsible.'

He said, "There should also be debate, dialogue and agitation. Earlier, when children agitated, the government talked to them, listened to them and took action on the real issues. A high-level committee was formed to improve education, a bill was passed in Parliament. But there should be some way of raising the issue. Not just sitting at Connaught Place every day."

Gaurav Ballabh said that his government is not defending the Election Commission but 'defending democracy and the Republic of India'.

However, after more than a week of protests and the massive march of India Block on Monday, it was believed that there could be a change in the government's stance.

But last Tuesday, Union Home Minister Amit Shah indicated his tough stance by announcing the possible defeat of Congress for the fourth time in 2029.

He said, "I also want to tell Rahul Gandhi and his allies to be prepared for a crushing defeat in 2029. NDA is going to get a huge majority in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, while Congress will have to face its fourth consecutive defeat."

Neerja Chaudhary suggested that the government should sit with all the parties and initiate talks.

She says, "Some serious issues have arisen regarding SIR and it should be reformed. This is an important issue. There is a need to restore credibility regarding the right to vote. Therefore, the government should take an initiative. It should make CJP, youth and opposition sit together. It should not be made a trivial issue."

Many journalists have expressed surprise over the strict action taken by the police after the second movement of CJP which started against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, which is being called CJP Protest 2.0.

Neerja Chaudhary says, "I have seen the period of Emergency. I have not seen such an environment. However, at that time, George Fernandes was presented in the court handcuffed. If such strict action is taken against youth, women and elderly people, then the anger in the society increases to that extent."

He believes that this strategy may prove to be more 'counterproductive'.

Two big challenges before India Block

Political analysts believe that despite the pressure coming from below, the challenges before the India Block have not reduced.

Since its formation, the situation of India Block has been full of hiccups. Nitish Kumar, who made an important effort to bring the opposition under one banner, parted ways just before the Bihar assembly elections.

This was considered a big blow for the India Block.

When elections were held in West Bengal, no agreement could be made between Mamata Banerjee's TMC and Congress.

When elections were held in Kerala, the distance between CPM and Congress increased. Right now there are elections in Punjab, there is a distance between Congress and Aam Aadmi Party.

Rahul Verma, research fellow at the Center for Policy Research, said, "Rahul Gandhi was probably the first leader of the opposition to raise the issue of alleged vote theft after the Maharashtra and Haryana elections. When the SIR was announced just before the Bihar assembly elections in 2025, Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav had conducted the Voter Adhikar Yatra."

According to him, "Right now the stand of Aam Aadmi Party and Stalin's DMK party regarding the current movement is not clear as to how they are with the India alliance."

Neerja Chaudhary also considers unity in India Block as a big challenge. She describes unity and organizational capacity as the two biggest challenges for the opposition alliance.

She says, "The question is whether the India Bloc will remain united and present a strong unity or will small local issues like seat sharing dominate. Or will there be a bigger picture of defeating the BJP. The current campaign is being led by Rahul Gandhi. But the Congress organization is very weak in many states."

According to him, "If there is no organizational capacity, then the question is whether despite the huge support in the society, it will be converted into votes, whether elections can be won with it. Because on the other hand, BJP has a very big election machinery, and they are expert in winning elections."

"The organizational capacity of regional parties will have to be further increased. For example, Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav have a good organizational network in their states. Congress will have to believe in this. If Congress thinks that it will stand up on its own and win in 2029, then it seems a bit difficult today."

She says, "A new energy has come, new faces and leadership of the youth are coming. An enthusiasm has been created and the atmosphere of fear which was there has also ended, that too is breaking a little. Therefore, everything depends on the wisdom of the opposition."