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BackQuestions about cost-effectiveness calculation of Hokuriku Shinkansen extension, change in methodology behind adoption of Obama-Kyoto route
Questions about cost-effectiveness calculation of Hokuriku Shinkansen extension, change in methodology behind adoption of Obama-Kyoto route
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朝日新聞2 hours agoPolitics2 min readJapanView original

Questions about cost-effectiveness calculation of Hokuriku Shinkansen extension, change in methodology behind adoption of Obama-Kyoto route

Hokuriku ShinkansenObama/Kyoto routeMaibara route

Quick Look

  • The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism calculated the cost-benefit ratio (B/C) of extending the Hokuriku Shinkansen and supported the Obama-Kyoto route promoted by the Liberal Democratic Party.
  • However, it has been revealed that a method that experts question is questionable, and that the standard timing was changed for each route.
  • The Ishin no Kai had recommended the Maibara route, but in the end the Obama-Kyoto route was adopted.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

The Hokuriku Shinkansen will open between Kanazawa and Tsuruga in 2024. Regarding the remaining routes between Tsuruga and Shin-Osaka, the Liberal Democratic Party has been pushing for the Obama-Kyoto route, and the Japan Restoration Party has been pushing for the Maibara route. Ten years ago, the Obama-Kyoto route was at a disadvantage, but this time the situation was reversed.

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The cost-benefit ratio (B/C) calculated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism regarding the extension of the Hokuriku Shinkansen has provided a strong boost to the ``Obama-Kyoto route'' promoted by the Liberal Democratic Party. The proposal was subsequently adopted, rejecting an alternative proposal promoted by the Japan Restoration Association.

However, the calculation used a method that experts question by changing the reference period for Obama/Kyoto and other areas. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism has not released a clear explanation to the public, casting a shadow on the credibility of the national project.

Expectations overturned

The Hokuriku Shinkansen will open between Kanazawa and Tsuruga (Fukui) in 2024. Discussions about the Tsuruga-Shin-Osaka route continue. The Liberal Democratic Party has long advocated the Obama-Kyoto route, which passes through Obama City in Fukui Prefecture and Kyoto City, but the Ishin Party, which joined the ruling party last year, opposes that plan. A tug-of-war continued over the decision to take the Maibara route, which passes through Maibara City, Shiga Prefecture.

According to estimates made by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism 10 years ago, the Obama-Kyoto route had higher construction costs and lower B/C than the Maibara route.

However, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism showed B...

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism will have an opportunity to explain the details of the estimation method.

    Possible · Within weeks

  • It has been pointed out that the construction cost of the Obama-Kyoto route may exceed estimates.

    Possible · Within months

Open Questions

  • Why did the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism change the standard timing for each route?
  • Are the detailed breakdown and assumptions of the trial calculation made public?
  • How does the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism plan to respond to experts' criticism?

Related Topics

Hokuriku Shinkansen
OrganizationsMinistry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourismliberal democratic partyJapan Restoration Association
PlacesJapanFukui prefectureKyoto PrefectureShiga prefecture
TopicsObama/Kyoto routeMaibara routecost effectivenessB/CMinistry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourismliberal democratic party
This article was originally published by 朝日新聞.

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