Orders for servers and other products are booming and remain high-end, pushing export orders to record highs. The order volume in the first three quarters of this year has exceeded the order volume for the whole of last year. Schematic diagram, the picture shows the Huida server. (File photo, taken by reporter Liao Jianing)
This year has seen a boom in AI (artificial intelligence), high-efficiency computing and cloud services. Orders for servers and other products are booming and remain high-end. Although there is no shortage of new consumer electronics products, the shine of AI is so strong that it pales in comparison to "Apple's shine". It is worth mentioning that the export order volume in the first three quarters of this year was US$819.2 billion, which has surpassed the US$743.73 billion in orders for the whole of last year, setting an unprecedented new record. The Census and Statistics Department originally estimated that the challenge for order receipts this year would be US$1.1 trillion. Currently, the probability of US$1.1 trillion becoming the minimum threshold is quite high.
The cumulative order volume in the first three quarters of this year was US$819.2 billion, an annual increase of 56%, showing that the supply chain demand driven by the AI wave continues to be strong, and it still hit a new high in the same period despite the high base period last year.
Huang Weijie, director of the Statistics Department, explained that after recalculating the full-year estimate, the current order volume that has been realized is US$819.2 billion accumulated in the first three quarters, and it is only US$280.8 billion away from challenging the US$1.1 trillion mark for the whole year. Judging from past historical trends, the order volume in the fourth quarter is usually higher than that in the third quarter. Based on this, "the probability of reaching US$1.1 trillion this year is quite high."
In August, the order volume only exceeded the US$100 billion mark. In September, the order volume hit a new high, exceeding US$110 billion, a monthly increase of more than US$10 billion. Can we expect that based on this trend, it is estimated that the monthly growth will be US$10 billion in both November and December? Huang Weijie briefly stated that the Census and Statistics Department’s estimated order volume will only come next month. From a more conservative perspective, the remaining unreleased single-month valuations this year should still be based on US$100 billion as the benchmark.
Calculate that the average monthly order volume in the next fourth quarter will only reach US$93.6 billion to reach the high target of US$1.1 trillion.
The Census and Statistics Department estimates that the order volume in October will fall between 112.5 and 115.9 billion U.S. dollars, which is expected to hit a new monthly high, with an annual increase of 62% to 67%.
If the estimated order volume in October is included in the trial calculation, based on the base order volume in October of US$112.5 billion, the annual target of US$1.1 trillion can be reached as long as the total in November and December reaches US$168.3 billion. The average order volume in November and December only needs to reach US$84.15 billion to reach the target.
Talking about the actual order performance in many months this year, which has exceeded the original valuation, Huang Weijie added that this wave of AI has indeed made it difficult to predict the valuation of export orders this year, especially since this year, it has faced the pressure of last year’s high base period. Observing the IMF (International Monetary Organization), WTO (World Trade Organization) 10 The latest trade outlook for the month all revised global trade volume upwards. The reason is that the demand for AI hardware and semiconductor supply chains is too strong. The AI wave is so strong that it seems to offset the concerns of geopolitics and secondary inflation. Therefore, Taiwan, which is export-oriented, also supports the growth of the valuation of orders due to the upward revision of global trade volumes.
