[Next week's economy] Will the base interest rate be raised for the third consecutive time? Producer prices announced
Quick Look
- Next week (October 19-23), the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to decide on the base interest rate, and a comprehensive audit of government affairs is scheduled for major economic ministries.
- The Monetary Policy Committee is weighing the possibility of a third consecutive increase following July and August, with rising prices and instability in the real estate market acting as variables.
- In addition, the AI hacking incident and the process of introducing leveraged ETFs are expected to be dealt with as major issues in the National Audit conducted by the Financial Supervisory Service.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Bank of Korea raised the base interest rate by 0.25% points in succession in July and August, and currently maintains it at 3.00%. With the recent high inflation rate and ongoing instability in the real estate market, attention is being paid to whether the Monetary Policy Committee will raise prices further.
(Sejong = Yonhap News) Reporters Lee Dae-hee, Bae Young-kyung, and Chae Sae-rom = Next week (October 19-23), the Bank of Korea will decide the base interest rate. A comprehensive government audit of major economic ministries is also scheduled.
The Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee (hereinafter referred to as the Monetary Policy Committee) will hold a monetary policy direction meeting on the 22nd and decide whether to adjust the base interest rate, which is currently 3.00%.
The Monetary Policy Committee previously raised the base interest rate by 0.25 percentage points (p) in consecutive July and August.
There is a prevailing opinion in the market that the Monetary Policy Committee will freeze interest rates and look at the results of consecutive increases rather than continuing to raise interest rates for three consecutive times. However, as the inflation rate is still high and real estate market instability continues, there are observations that it will give a signal that leaves open the possibility of further increases.
The Bank of Korea announces the producer price index for September on the 21st.
Producer prices rose for nine consecutive months starting in September of last year, remained flat in June, fell for the first time in 11 months in July, and then rose again last month.
On the 19th, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Economy Lee Hyung-il visited sites related to the housing sector among the three core social policies, including housing supply, job stability, and inclusive finance, and listened to voices from the field.
On the 21st, the export and import status for the 1st to 20th of this month will be announced. The export amount from the 1st to the 10th of this month (provisional value based on customs clearance) was $26.1 billion, an increase of 102.0% compared to the same period last year.
On the 19th, an audit of the National Assembly's Political Affairs Committee will be conducted targeting the Financial Supervisory Service. The process of introducing a single-stock leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) is expected to be the biggest issue during the Financial Supervisory Service's audit following the Financial Services Commission.
Lee Chan-jin, head of the Financial Supervisory Service, said about the process of introducing the product at a press conference last June, "I am personally reflecting on whether I should have lied down and blocked it in some way, and I have a lot of regrets."
It is expected that recent serial artificial intelligence (AI) hacking incidents in the financial sector will also come to the fore. The Political Affairs Committee additionally adopted the presidents of the five largest banks as witnesses for the National Assembly inspection.
In addition, this year's household debt management, real estate project financing (PF) workplace management, relocation of the Financial Supervisory Service to regional areas, and administrative reform are also considered as major policy issues.
A comprehensive national inspection will be held for the Fair Trade Commission on the 21st, the Ministry of Finance and Economy, the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service on the 22nd, and the Ministry of Planning and Budget and the Bank of Korea on the 23rd.
Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eok-won will attend the insurance industry win-win insurance business agreement signing ceremony on the 19th. The insurance industry, the Vulnerable Elderly Support Foundation, and the Senior Citizens Living Alone Support Center plan to join hands to provide integrated support to vulnerable seniors using the insurance industry's win-win fund.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee is likely to freeze the benchmark interest rate next week.
Likely · Within days
Discussions will be held at the Financial Supervisory Service's audit to strengthen regulations on the process of introducing leveraged ETFs and AI hacking incidents.
Likely · Within days
Open Questions
- What will be the final decision by the Monetary Policy Committee on whether to freeze or further increase the base interest rate?
- What are the specific regulatory measures for AI hacking incidents under the Financial Supervisory Service’s audit?
- What will be the Financial Supervisory Service's final position on the process of introducing leveraged ETFs?

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