"Little Four" storm detonates whether Huang Renxun will stay or go! The prediction market predicts that the probability of "resigning today" is only 30%, but "at this time" soars to 68%

"Little Four" storm detonates whether Huang Renxun will stay or go! The prediction market predicts that the probability of "resigning today" is only 30%. (Reuters)

[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] Jen-Hsun Huang’s affair was exposed again. The New York Times once again exposed that Zeng and Kimberly Ball, the vice president of the medical industry who reported directly to him Powell had an extramarital affair. As the extramarital affairs and suspected national security concerns have intensified, the market's concerns about his departure continue to rise. According to relevant predictions from Polymarket, bettors believe that there is a 30% chance that Huang will announce his resignation as soon as today, and the chance of leaving Huida before the end of November is 68%. This also shows that the market has begun to bet that Huida may face major changes in high-level personnel.

Foreign media reported that the New York Times quoted five people who had worked at NVIDIA as saying that in addition to having an extramarital affair with suspected Chinese spy Huang Le, CEO Jensen Huang also had an extramarital affair with Kimberly Powell, the vice president of the medical business who reported directly to him.

After a series of extramarital affairs, the "Wall Street Journal" reported that Huida's board of directors is preparing to replace CEO Huang Renxun because he was involved in two extramarital affairs. People familiar with the matter said that Huida's board of directors is preparing to hold a meeting as soon as today to decide on Huang Renxun's departure.

It is worth noting that Huida's board of directors does have the power to replace the CEO. Unlike some companies where the founders hold special voting rights, Huida only has a single class of shares. Huang Renxun does not have super voting rights, so the board of directors has the right to decide whether he should stay or leave.

Founders 100 ETF portfolio manager Michael Monaghan noted that the matter will ultimately be decided by the board of directors. StoneX analyst Cody Acree believes that if there is evidence that a second extramarital relationship is involved, the board of directors may have no choice but to take action because every company has ethical codes that it must abide by.

The prediction market has also reflected investors' high degree of uncertainty about Huang Renxun's future. According to relevant predictions from Polymarket, bettors believe that there is a 30% chance that Huang will announce his resignation as soon as the next day, while the chance of leaving Huida before the end of November is 68%. This also shows that the market has begun to bet that Huida may face major changes in high-level personnel.

However, even if Huang Renxun resigns, the investigation facing Huida may not end there. Terry Haines, founder of Pangea Policy, a forecasting research organization, pointed out that changing the CEO may change the company's leadership structure, but it will not end the fundamental investigation against Huida. Regardless of whether Huang leaves the company or becomes solely responsible for product-related matters, the board's independent investigation, as well as law enforcement's alleged ongoing chip flow investigation, are likely to move forward.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon recently downgraded Huida's stock rating from "outperform" to "market perform." He admitted that it was quite a struggle to make this decision, but considering that the investigation against Huang Renxun may reveal more information, even if the stock price fell sharply, he still chose to wait and see for the time being.

Simon Leopold, an analyst at Raymond James, also said that if the relevant reports are true, the incident highlights a serious error in judgment, which Huida must handle appropriately; considering that legal or compliance issues may be involved, the company should also increase transparency.