If the G7 foreign ministers, who met in Paris for two days, wanted to learn about the possible changes to American foreign policy after the midterm elections from their counterpart, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the latter did not delay in responding to their request, and he did so not only inside the meeting room at the headquarters of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but also directly in front of the press.
More than one source reported that there were serious differences in views between Rubio and the other ministers. But the American minister adopted an approach that the political defeat suffered by President Trump in the midterm elections will not have an impact on the approach he has followed so far in foreign policy.
Rubio acknowledged that “Congress has a role in shaping our foreign policy, especially with regard to financing and exercising oversight,” but he was quick to add that “the first factor in determining foreign policy has always been and will continue to be the President of the United States.”
Rubio added categorically that President Trump will determine American policies as he sees fit, regardless of the results of the recent elections. He pointed out that his president is determined to end the conflicts with Iran, as well as the war between Russia and Ukraine, but stressed that the United States will continue to follow the “America First” approach on the international scene.
The fate of the “frozen” war between Washington and Tehran
On the second day of the “Seven” meetings in Paris, Middle East issues were present on the negotiating table. The most prominent of which is the fate of the “frozen” war between the United States and Iran and the issues related to it, whether it is the security of energy supplies, freedom of navigation in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, or Yemen and alternative energy paths, in addition to the Lebanese and Syrian files.
What is important is that the discussions took place while positive winds were blowing from Washington, headlined by President Trump’s optimistic statements. On Monday, Trump noted that there is “a (new) push towards ending this conflict, and I believe it will end soon.” In his view, “military action does not seem necessary today, but we are ready and equipped to carry it out if things change.”
The stop of Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani in Paris, returning from Washington, provided an additional element for the discussions. A group of meetings were held in Washington about the Iranian file, which the American and Qatari sides considered “positive.”
In this context, the French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noel Barrot, held a working meeting with the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the Saudi Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, the German Foreign Minister, Johan Vadifol, the British Foreign Minister, Ed Miliband, and the Italian Foreign Minister, Antonio Taiani.
The French Foreign Ministry said, in a statement, that the ministers discussed the Iranian crisis and its security and economic repercussions on the region and the international community. They called for preventing any new military escalation and reaching a diplomatic settlement to the conflict. They declared their support for the ongoing mediation efforts, “particularly the efforts made by the State of Qatar,” and urged all parties to continue their talks “in a constructive spirit.”
The ministers agreed on the need to ensure that “Iran will never possess nuclear weapons,” and to put an end to “all its destabilizing activities” through diplomatic means. They called for “urgent action to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” with strict adherence to international law, and decided to continue close coordination between them.
Also, a meeting was held at the Elysee Palace between President Macron and Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman, devoted to developments in the situation in the Gulf. The latter wrote in a tweet on the “X” platform that he discussed with the French President the latest developments in joint diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing the escalation in the region. A statement by the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that there were “positive reactions” from both sides of the crisis, and that the Foreign Minister’s meeting with President Trump was characterized by positivity.
According to diplomatic sources in the French capital, the Paris meetings provided an opportunity to pressure Washington to give priority to political and diplomatic solutions to the war with Iran. This approach includes the Gulf and European countries that support the Pakistani and Qatari mediations, and stress the benefit of the Istanbul meeting, which included the “European Quartet” and the Mecca Agreement countries.
But the irony is that Rubio came to Paris with reservations about making progress on the Iranian file. He saw that the parties “are not on the verge of achieving a breakthrough in the discussions.” He placed the responsibility on Iran and its demands, which he described as “not only unacceptable, but some of them, in certain cases, are exaggerated, ridiculous, and indeed unrealistic.” However, Rubio declined to provide details of what he specifically meant.
Until today, Tehran has been adhering to its seven conditions, including ending the war in the Middle East on all fronts, releasing frozen Iranian funds, lifting sanctions on it, and stopping the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. On Tuesday, the Iranian Foreign Minister reiterated his country’s position by emphasizing that “the only solution lies in adopting the language of respect, engaging in diplomacy, and dealing with Iran’s requests and conditions contained in the two-day proposal that is still on the table.”
“Devastating results”
Despite the positive elements conveyed by the Qatari Prime Minister, or those that appeared through Trump's statements, this does not seem to have reassured the G7 ministers and other guest ministers that war is not coming back.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot considered, in the press conference he held at the end of the Paris meetings, that “the risk of resuming military strikes and further escalation still exists, and has not been completely ruled out. Otherwise, we would not have devoted all this time and effort, over these two days, to discussing these issues with our American counterpart, and then with the Qatari Prime Minister.”
Barrow continued, saying: “But we support the efforts being made, especially those led by the countries of the region, in order to find a way out that allows the Strait of Hormuz to be liberated or reopened, and to reach a political solution that prevents the resumption of military strikes.”
For his part, Rubio told reporters after the end of the meetings that the economic campaign against Iran “is so destructive that there is no need, at the present time, to carry out major combat operations,” adding: “This is what I told our allies here today.”
However, Rubio was quick to issue a warning to Iran, saying: “It is clear that if Iran crosses some red lines, or if its regime does things that should not happen (...), the US military, which is considered the most capable military force in the world, is ready to respond.” Thus, he restored the language that the American president resorts to on every occasion. The same applies to his saying that there is no need for major combat operations against Iran with the economic campaign.
In the same context, diplomatic sources from the Group of Seven in Paris were quoted as saying that Rubio informed his counterparts on Tuesday that his country would continue to impose “devastating” economic costs on Iran. He added that Washington has options other than returning to war or accepting Iranian demands, which he once again described as “unacceptable.”
According to Rubio, Washington is betting on the effectiveness of strict economic sanctions on Iran, and believes that they are achieving results and limiting Tehran's ability to finance its regional activities and its allied parties. Reuters quoted a source as saying that Rubio described Iranian officials as “crazy.”
However, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman, returning from Washington, had a somewhat different point of view than what Rubio issued. According to what was reported about him during his meeting with the five ministers to inform them of the results of his mission in Washington, he declared his optimism, but with caution, about the possibility of reaching a diplomatic solution with Iran.
It is no secret that the members of the American administration do not adopt the same vision of how to end the conflict with Iran. There are those who are pushing for a diplomatic-political solution, led by Vice President J.D. Vance, and there are those who believe that economic pressure must continue while keeping the sword of resorting to military strikes drawn over the heads of the Iranians.
Hence, Trump's positions fluctuate, oscillating between saying that the agreement is close on the one hand, and threatening devastating strikes on the other hand.
