
Paris and Washington are discussing a formula to avoid the security vacuum and a civilian verification mechanism, while Lebanon refuses to replace UNIFIL with a civilian force
France and the United States are seeking to find a formula to avoid a security vacuum in southern Lebanon after the end of the mandate of the United Nations Force (UNIFIL) at the end of this year, at a time when Lebanon refuses to replace UNIFIL with a civilian force to verify Israel’s withdrawal and the deployment of the Lebanese army, and Paris is working with Rome to form a multinational force to succeed UNIFIL.
AI-generated summary
The mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires at the end of this year, and France is working with the United States to find a formula to avoid a security vacuum in southern Lebanon. Lebanon refuses to replace UNIFIL with a civilian force, and demands that its mandate be extended or that the number of observer forces (UNTSO) be increased to at least 1,500 members. In Syria, the government is preparing to take over the management of Roj Camp, the last camp for families of ISIS fighters, from the dissolved Syrian Democratic Forces, after closing Al-Hawl Camp and returning nationals of several countries to their countries.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio renewed an American proposal that Lebanon had rejected to verify the withdrawal of Hezbollah and the deployment of the Lebanese army in typical areas in southern Lebanon, which is to assign the task to a civilian group, at a time when France is working with the United States to find a “formula” that guarantees avoiding a vacuum in southern Lebanon after the withdrawal of UNIFIL.
The French-American discussions revolve around two files related to southern Lebanon. The first is avoiding the post-UNIFIL vacuum, while the second is the “verification mechanism” in the experimental areas from which Israel is withdrawing. This movement reflects the activation of diplomatic communication in light of the Israeli occupation of more than 55 towns and villages on the southern border, and after the failure to make progress in expanding the experimental areas in southern Lebanon, against the backdrop of disagreements over the verification mechanism.
Barrow: Towards a new security architecture
Meanwhile, Paris is seeking to establish a mechanism to ensure an international presence in the south of the country, large areas of which Israel occupies, after the end of the mandate of the United Nations force at the end of this year. Paris, in cooperation with Rome, wants to form a multinational force to succeed UNIFIL.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Tuesday that there was “agreement on the necessity of avoiding a security vacuum” in southern Lebanon following the withdrawal of the United Nations force scheduled for the end of the year. Barrow stated following a meeting of the Group of Seven that the consensus includes “the need to move forward and quickly towards a new security structure,” considering that the meeting of the group’s foreign ministers on Monday and Tuesday in Paris “constituted an opportunity to make progress” on this issue.
He explained: “I sensed a collective desire to provide responses to the aspirations of the Lebanese people and their authorities. As for making progress, I would say that the essence of diplomacy lies in developing ideas through discussion and dialogue. Therefore, I believe that the Group of Seven (G7) meeting actually constituted an opportunity to achieve progress on the Lebanese file.”
Barrow said: “France took the initiative to put forward proposals in this regard, which were first presented to the Lebanese authorities. I visited Lebanon myself a few days ago to discuss it with them. I also presented these proposals to my American counterpart, who assumes the role of mediation between the Lebanese and Israeli sides. It is true that electoral deadlines - whether in the United States or in Israel - may have led to the postponement of some discussions that could have been resolved otherwise. However, I have great hope that a consensus will be reached, because the goal, in essence, is widely accepted, which is Israel’s withdrawal from the south, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and the restoration of a strong state that monopolizes arms and is able to guarantee security and prosperity for the entire population and various components of Lebanon, including the Shiite community.
Regarding the guarantees that France can provide, especially regarding the new international framework after the departure of UNIFIL, he said: “I believe that this security structure must be based on existing Security Council resolutions, especially Resolution 1701, and it must also contribute to the success of the tripartite agreement (framework agreement).” He continued: “The success of the tripartite agreement depends on this security structure. If a security vacuum is allowed, the conditions for success may not be met.”
Proposed French formula
The final results of the discussions between the American and French sides regarding the “formula” that will be agreed upon to fill the UNIFIL vacuum have not yet been revealed, but what Barrow spoke about coincides with information in Beirut about a French “formula” to avoid the vacuum, which was proposed last month before the Israeli elections, and which Lebanon views as an “attempt to agree” with the American side, represented by giving the “framework agreement” between Lebanon and Israel an international umbrella, in conjunction with extending UNIFIL and activating the resolution. 1701.
Lebanese sources familiar with the previous French formula told Asharq Al-Awsat that the idea is to “merge Resolution 1701 and the Framework Agreement,” and is based on “renewing the mission of UNIFIL for a minimum period of six months, and its mission will be to implement Resolution 1701 and the Framework Agreement at the same time,” which means “putting the framework agreement that was signed between Lebanon and Israel under American sponsorship last June, under the umbrella of the United Nations.” As for UNIFIL’s mission, according to the French proposal, it will be limited to “ensuring the implementation of Resolution 1701 and the Framework Agreement, or expanding the number and tasks of the observer mission to about 1,500 members at a minimum, and entrusting it with the task of implementing the two agreements.”
The sources said: “Lebanon has not yet been informed of the results of the American-French talks, but Rubio’s words refer to a specific formula that was discussed between Washington and Paris,” noting that the picture will become clearer “early next week with the visit of the American Permanent Representative to the United Nations and its representative in the Security Council, Ambassador Mike Waltz, to Beirut, to discuss the (UNIFIL) file and the alternative formula.”
Lebanon is counting on American pressure in this regard, in light of the Israeli rejection of any subsequent presence of an international force that includes French military personnel. Relations between Paris and Tel Aviv are deteriorating despite the positive signals that France sends from time to time. While Paris urges the Lebanese authorities to “take action” and respect the commitments it has made to the international community, including the full implementation of the content of International Resolution No. 1701, the Lebanese state is still confused about the path it will take to achieve this goal.
Civil mission
Regarding the verification mechanism file, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Monday after discussing the Lebanon file with French President Emmanuel Macron: “The goal is to have a reliable party on the ground capable of verifying the parties’ commitment to (the terms of the framework agreement) in the experimental areas. This does not necessarily require a military mission like the one (performed) by UNIFIL... but it could be civilian.”
Lebanon rejected this American proposal in the military negotiating meeting between Lebanon and Israel under American sponsorship in Tampa, United States, as ministerial sources close to the Lebanese presidency confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat, while Israel rejected a Lebanese proposal to strengthen the number and tasks of the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization mission in southern Lebanon, which has been in place since 1949 (UNTSO). The sources said that Lebanon “rejects the principle of replacing UNIFIL with a civilian force (NGO), regardless of its nature and formation, because it believes that the experiment will not be effective.” The sources indicated that Beirut demands “an effective, reliable force that enjoys the cover of the United Nations,” so “Lebanon demanded that the mandate of UNIFIL be extended or that the number of observer forces (UNTSO) be increased to a minimum of 1,500 members.”
Questioning the success of the civil experiment
The Lebanese rejection of any civilian force intersects with a neutral military point of view, which does not believe that replacing UNIFIL with a civilian force will be effective. The military expert, retired Brigadier General Saeed Al-Qazah, said: “I imagine that the solution lies in expanding the tasks of the Truce Supervision Committee by increasing its number and providing logistical support so that it can be the mediator between the Lebanese and Israeli armies.” He said in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that any civilian mission “will not succeed,” adding that the experience of the “Blackwater” force that was adopted in Iraq after the fall of President Saddam Hussein’s regime “was a failure, and the adoption of any similar force cannot lead to a result, and it will not have any role in the south.”
Al-Qazah explained: “The UNIFIL forces, which represent 45 countries, barely carried out their mission, so how about a civilian company?” He added: “I believe that the NGO can remove mines and clean areas of war remnants, but it cannot have a role in the missions of monitoring the ceasefire and mediating between the Lebanese and Israeli armies.” He continued: “Even the Truce Supervision Organization, if its tasks expand, will only be to monitor the ceasefire and be the mediator between the two armies, as long as Lebanon refuses direct coordination within a joint operations room.”
The Israeli Prime Minister-designate, leader of the Yashar Party, Gadi Eisenkot, announced his bloc’s agreement to elect a member of his party, Matan Kahane, as a candidate for the position of Speaker of the Israeli Parliament (Knesset). The leaders of the “Change” camp parties welcomed him and decided to support him in the position, in addition to the Arab parties that are supposed to vote for him, which makes his path to the presidency of the Knesset almost settled.
On Tuesday, with the opening of the new Knesset, the camp presented the signatures of 67 members demanding the replacement of the current Knesset Speaker, Amir Ohana, who will be obligated to call for a vote on this step within a week at most.
It does not seem that Eisenkot chose to give in to Kahane in vain; Kahane's CV shows legal knowledge built on the basis of his master's degree in law, as well as his many years of experience as a member of the Knesset, in addition to holding a previous ministerial position. Kahane is supposed to be the spearhead of the “Change Bloc” in the Knesset, within the framework of getting rid of the men, laws, and legacy of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in the Knesset, in a difficult and complex mission.
Kahane said, on Tuesday, after Eisenkot announced his selection for the position, “The position of Speaker of the Knesset is a very important position. I am happy with the trust Gadi (Eisenkot) has placed in me by choosing me as a candidate for this position. We have to wait a little while until the Knesset members actually choose me.” The Speaker of the Knesset leads the work of the General Assembly, and decides on proposals submitted for the agenda, draft laws, and topics for discussion, including interpellations. The Speaker of the Knesset is responsible for managing the sessions of the General Assembly, putting proposals to a vote, and announcing the results. He also has the powers to maintain order and discipline. In addition to chairing the Knesset, he manages its administrative and financial affairs and budget and represents it before external and international institutions and bodies. In the event of the absence of the Head of State, the Speaker of the Knesset assumes the duties of acting presidency. Many are also counting on the Knesset and its presidency to form an official investigation committee into the October 7, 2023 attack led by Hamas against Israel. Netanyahu rejected calls to conduct an official investigation into it, for fear of political condemnation of his government, and for 3 years held the army responsible for the failure.
Who is Matan Kahane?
Matan Kahane was born in Haifa in 1972. He moved with his family to New York City at an early age, then returned with the family to “Beit Gamliel” in central Israel, which is a cooperative farm, and he still lives there. Kahane served as a combat soldier in the Sayeret Matkal unit, an elite unit that reports directly to the General Staff of the Israeli Army, from August 1990 to January 1993. He then received training in the Air Force as a fighter pilot, and became a pilot of combat aircraft. Kahane became a pilot in 1994 and in 2011, he was appointed commander of the 116th Squadron, and in 2013 he was appointed commander of the 109th Squadron. During his service period, he participated in operations in the Gaza Strip and the Second Lebanon War in 2006. In Gaza specifically, he participated as a pilot in Operations “Cast Lead” (2008 - 2009), “Pillar of Defense” (2012), and “Operation Protective Edge” 2014 in the Gaza Strip. Kahane was discharged from the army in 2018 with the rank of colonel, after which he graduated from Bar-Ilan University. According to the Knesset website, he holds a bachelor’s and master’s degrees in law.
Political biography
The political biography of Matan Kahane shows that in 2019, he joined the “New Right” party led by Naftali Bennett, and was elected to the 22nd Knesset as part of the joint “Yamina” list, of which Bennett was also one of its most prominent leaders. In June 2021, Matan Kahane was appointed Minister of Religious Services in the government of Bennett and Yair Lapid. Then, in May 2022, Kahane resigned from his ministerial position and returned to the Knesset, before briefly assuming the position of Deputy Minister of Religious Services. In August 2022, Kahane joined the “official camp” list led by Benny Gantz, then in July 2025 he resigned from the Knesset, and two months later he joined the “Ya’shar” party led by Gadi Eisenkot. He was elected to the Knesset last month.
Representatives of the countries of Sudan, Somalia and Indonesia received a new batch of their countries’ nationals residing in the “Roj” (Spring) camp located in the far north-east of the Syrian province of Al-Hasakah, which includes families of ISIS terrorist organization fighters, and it is the last camp for families of the extremist organization’s fighters in Syria. This came during a visit they made three days ago, accompanied by a joint delegation from the Syrian government internal security forces and representatives of the government, according to an activist in the governorate. The activist considered the repeated entry of government security delegations into the camp during this period as an indication that the Syrian government would take over its administration from the dissolved “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF). Activist Ibrahim Al-Halabi, from Al-Hasakah, explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that the delegation of the security forces and the government met with a group of women living in the camp, who explained the situation, in the presence of representatives from the countries of Sudan, Somalia and Indonesia, in order to receive a batch of nationals from their countries in preparation for transporting them there. In the “Roj” camp, which is the last camp for the families of ISIS fighters, after the new Syrian government closed the “Al-Hawl” camp, also located in the Hasakah countryside, there are about 750 tents inhabited by 2,200 women and children holding various foreign and Arab nationalities, including Turkish, Russian, British, French, German, Australian, Indonesian, Sudanese, Somali, Tunisian, and other nationalities. Other Arabic. This is not the first batch of Sudanese, Somali and Indonesian nationals to be removed from Roj camp and returned to their countries. Several batches have been returned since 2022. Al-Halabi stated that the number of those handed over to their government representatives in this batch was 12 Indonesian women with their children, 30 Somali women, and between 3 and 9 Sudanese women.
Dual nationality
He indicated that the previous batches that were deported were of holders of single Sudanese and Somali nationality, noting that there are Sudanese and Somali women who hold dual nationalities, and he gave as an example those who hold Sudanese-British nationality, and Somali-British nationality. Al-Halabi pointed out that this caused a problem; Some women refused to surrender themselves to the Sudanese government, demanding that they surrender themselves to the British government. Therefore, so far, Somali and Sudanese women with dual nationality have not been deported. Al-Halabi stated that this period witnessed the entry of government internal security forces into the “Roj” camp several times, where residents of Australian, Sudanese, Somali, and Indonesian nationalities, and from the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, were removed. The last visit left the camp residents with great satisfaction, as evidenced by the gathering of women and children around the delegation. He explained that this repeated entry of government internal security forces may have left reassuring messages to the residents, after what they had been exposed to over the past years. Al-Halabi considered this security and government entry into the Roj camp an indication that the government would take over its administration. However, it is likely that the process of security protection for the camp will be supervised by SDF elements merging with the government internal security forces according to the merger agreement signed in January 2026 between the Syrian government and the SDF, while there will be government supervision by departments assigned to do so. Last February, the Syrian government took control of Al-Hawl camp, which was considered the largest detention camp for families of ISIS fighters in the country, and is classified as the most dangerous camp in the world. It included tens of thousands of families of different nationalities, after it was taken from the SDF, which was managing it along with the Roj camp. The Syrian government then worked to empty the “Al-Hawl” camp of its foreign residents, and transferred them to a camp located near the city of Akhtarin in the northern countryside of Aleppo. After the closure of Al-Hawl camp, Roj camp emerged as the second most prominent and dangerous camp that includes women and widows of ISIS members of various foreign nationalities. But activists in northern Syria point out that to this day it is not known when the “Roj” camp will be closed, or where its residents will go after that.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The US Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, will visit Beirut early next week to discuss the UNIFIL file and the alternative formula
Very likely · Within days
The Syrian government will take over the administration of Roj camp from the dissolved Syrian Democratic Forces
Likely · Within weeks

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