Rebel forces temporarily withdraw from Mekele as fighting approaches the Tigray capital
Quick Look
The Tigray People's Liberation Front announced a temporary withdrawal from Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, as fighting approached the city, while residents reported that government forces now control Mekelle and mobile phone services have returned in parts of it, in light of escalating tensions after the collapse of the Pretoria Peace Agreement in 2022 and the exchange of accusations of violating it, and the United States' call for restraint before a diplomatic meeting in Egypt.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
This development stems from the collapse of the Pretoria Peace Agreement that ended a devastating two-year civil war in Tigray that ended in 2022, during which about 600,000 people died, with relations deteriorating over the past six months and accusations of violating the agreement.
Rebel forces in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region said they had temporarily withdrawn from the regional capital, Mekele, as fighting with the national army approached the city.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front, which ran the region, said its decision to move its positions was due to concerns about the risks to which civilians might be exposed.
Two Mekele residents told the BBC that pro-government forces now control the city, and that TPLF forces have left. One resident also said mobile phone services appeared to be back in parts of the city.
Fighting broke out in recent weeks between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and federal government forces and allied fighters in parts of the Tigray, Afar and Amhara regions in northern Ethiopia.
This development represents a major shift in the conflict, and raises fears among observers that the fighting will lead to further destabilization in the Horn of Africa, with the possibility of drawing neighboring countries into the conflict.
The US State Department called on all parties to exercise “restraint” and “dialogue,” ahead of a diplomatic meeting on the conflict to be held in Egypt on Sunday, with the participation of leaders from some of Ethiopia’s neighboring countries.
The people of Tigray are trying to recover from a devastating two-year civil war that ended in 2022, when the African Union brokered a peace deal between the two parties, known as the Pretoria Agreement.
But relations have deteriorated over the past six months, with both sides exchanging accusations of violating the agreement.
Last month, the Tigray People's Liberation Front joined six other armed movements, including the Fano militia from the Amhara region, to form an alliance with the stated goal of overthrowing the government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The civil war was one of the bloodiest conflicts of this century, with the African Union mediator estimating that about 600,000 people died, while the fighting pushed the region to the brink of famine.
On Friday, neighboring countries Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of supporting a new rebel alliance, an accusation the latter denied.
Ethiopia also accused Egypt of supporting the rebels, which led to the expulsion of an Egyptian diplomat, and Cairo responded by ordering an official at the Ethiopian embassy to leave within the same deadline.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Ethiopian Federal Army will regain full control of Mekele within the next week if the TPLF is unable to regroup.
Likely · Within weeks
Diplomatic pressure will increase on the two sides to return to the negotiating table before the Egypt meeting on Sunday
Very likely · Within days
Open Questions
- To what extent do government forces control Mekele and surrounding areas?
- Will the temporary withdrawal lead Tigray forces to regroup for a counterattack?
- What is the evidence on Ethiopia's accusations that Eritrea and Egypt support the rebels?
- Will the diplomatic meeting in Egypt lead to real progress in resolving the conflict?
