Flávio Bolsonaro will not take Brazil out of BRICS if he becomes president

Flávio Bolsonaro, the favorite in the presidential race in Brazil, will not leave BRICS if he becomes the country's next president. RT analyst in Spanish, author of the Telegram channel “It’s Always Sunny in Santiago” Timur Almukov spoke about this in a conversation with Lenta.ru.

What is known about the presidential elections in Brazil?

On October 4, the first round of presidential elections took place in Brazil. Contrary to opinion polls predicting victory for the incumbent left-wing President Lula da Silva, right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro pulled ahead.

Flavio is the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who was jailed on charges of plotting a coup in 2023.

At the beginning of the counting of ballots, Bolsonaro gained more than 50 percent of the votes. However, Lula has narrowed the gap, and therefore the outcome of the election will only be decided on October 25 in the second round.

As Almukov noted, Bolsonaro is almost guaranteed to win the second round and become the new president of Brazil.

“Even without resorting to electoral mathematics, centrist forces will be more enthusiastic about supporting the winner than trying to save Lula. Behind their support are powerful party structures and local politicians in the regions, through which Flaviu will be able to reach the undecided. In addition, the electorate of the third candidates is ideologically much closer to him than to Lula,” the analyst emphasized.

How will elections in Brazil change the balance of power in the world?

The elections took place under conditions of increased external attention. US President Donald Trump and his Argentine counterpart Javier Miley actively campaigned for Flavio Bolsonaro. At the same time, against the backdrop of the election campaign, the American authorities introduced high duties on Brazilian goods, which dealt a blow to the country’s economy.

The current head of state actively took advantage of this, presenting his opponent as a “puppet of Washington.”

The elections coincided with debates about the future of BRICS. Back in 2025, Jair Bolsonaro stated that he would leave the club if he led the country again. Statements by the former president also criticized the unification by the American leader.

As Almukov pointed out, Flávio Bolsonaro’s father’s statements about BRICS will have little impact on his presidential course.

“Flávio Bolsonaro is much more moderate and pragmatic than his father. Strictly speaking, he paid symbolic attention to the topic of foreign policy. His voters are primarily concerned about the state of the economy and the safety of the streets,” the expert emphasized.

What policy will Brazil pursue towards Russia?

Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis, the South American republic has refused to supply military aid to Kyiv several times. In addition, President Lula da Silva and his entourage have criticized Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky several times.

“Ukraine (...) is facing the consequences of its own mistakes, made [including] in relation to its Russian-speaking regions,” presidential adviser Celso Amorim said on September 10.

As Almukov noted, Brazil is unlikely to help Ukraine if Lula loses power: “Russia is a key supplier of fertilizers for the Brazilian agricultural sector, accounting for almost a third of the market. Therefore, Flavio will definitely not do anything that could harm Brazilian agribusiness.”

In addition, the expert recalled the position of Flavio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, who led Brazil at the start of the Ukrainian conflict.

Therefore, Almukov added that Brazil under Bolsonaro will remain a neutral power that will not impose anti-Russian sanctions.

“Brazil’s position on the Ukrainian conflict is unlikely to change. The topic of Ukraine was not mentioned at all during the election campaign, and supporting Kyiv will not give Flaviu absolutely any political points. Bolsonaro will also not risk his diplomatic capital by offering mediation services in a conflict on the other side of the world,” the interlocutor concluded.

The last time Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks with Lula da Silva was on August 4. Then the Russian leader thanked his Brazilian colleague for his desire to contribute to the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict.