Over the past two months, President Trump has repeatedly made one appeal to voters: Just treat his name as if it were on the ballot.
Tuesday's midterm elections will give voters a chance to do just that. The election is expected to be the first national referendum on Trump's second-term agenda, which has been marked by far-reaching tariffs, an unpopular war with Iran and an aggressive crackdown on immigration.
Republican officials are bracing for what could be a harsh verdict from voters and potentially a major election loss. They generally expect Republicans to lose control of the House of Representatives. At the same time, they are increasingly worried that the Senate may be similarly lost.
Democrats are trying to build their campaign around voters' anger over rising prices due to tariffs and wars, with lowering people's living expenses as a core demand. Under Trump, Republicans have struggled to come up with a persuasive and positive response. The president himself has not only downplayed voters' concerns about the economy, but has also often delivered mixed political messages.
Of course, American politics is never without its surprises. Although the Republican Party has performed below expectations in the first two midterm elections of the Trump era, Trump has proven that he can mobilize his most loyal supporters to vote. He has also stepped up his baseless attacks on the U.S. electoral system, raising concerns that the federal government may interfere with election results.
Democrats only need a net gain of three seats in the House to gain a majority. The Senate is much more difficult: Democrats must hold on to all existing seats while wresting at least four seats from Republicans. They are competing in places like Texas and Kansas. Texas has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988, and Kansas last elected a Democratic U.S. senator in 1932.
If Democrats flip at least two Republican-controlled gubernatorial offices, they would gain a gubernatorial majority for the first time since 2010. Back then, dissatisfaction with President Obama propelled the Republican Party to victory in the election, and profoundly affected the subsequent American political landscape.
Polling places will close starting at 6 p.m. Eastern Time. The ensuing results will shape the country for at least the next two years, if not longer. Here are six areas to watch after voting closes:
How far can the Democratic Party penetrate into the traditional territory of the Republican Party?
Take a look at the final days of the campaign to see where the battles are still close.
In Kansas and Ohio, where the Republican Party has deep roots, the Senate elections are in a state of uncertainty. Democrats also have strong contests in some House districts, such as the upstate New York seat being vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik. Two years ago, Trump won this district by 21 points.
In conservative states such as Florida, Nebraska and Oklahoma, gubernatorial races are tight. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, was canvassing for the party's candidates in Oklahoma on Monday night. No Democratic presidential candidate has won a single county in Oklahoma since Al Gore in 2000.
Over the weekend, Republicans rushed money into Senate races in Louisiana. The outcome of this election has always been considered to be no suspense. The two parties are also adding last-minute funding to Senate races in Mississippi and South Carolina. Democrats have failed to win Senate elections in those two states in decades.
Democrats are widely expected to win in at least some Republican-dominated House districts and may even seize Senate seats in some states with deep Republican roots. The question now is how much breakthrough the Democrats can make on the traditional territory of the Republicans.
How angry are voters about Trump's handling of the economy?
Voters are most concerned about affordability of daily living expenses. Polls show that Trump's tariff policies and the wars he ordered have pushed up prices and stoked voter dissatisfaction.
On the day before the election, Trump spent time talking about his renovation of Washington’s reflecting pool. Some of his most memorable remarks at campaign rallies over the past few weeks have involved body parts of Republican Senate candidates.
Trump's approval ratings have fallen to historic lows. Republican candidates who have recast their political identities in his image are trying to convince voters they can remain independent.
In many cases, instead of even trying to argue that the economy is in good shape, Republicans are trying to change the subject.
In Michigan's Senate race, former Rep. Mike Rogers is trying to push his Democratic opponent, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed's Muslim faith and family background to the center of the campaign. In Texas, voters saw a slew of Republican ads about Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico's past stance on transgender rights. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins is selling voters on the idea that her four-term credentials are best for the state.
If Democrats win the House, how big will their majority advantage be?
We may find out earlier in the evening what kind of night the House will have.
In Indiana and the eastern half of Kentucky, polling places close at 6 p.m. ET. The elections in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District (Trump won by 15 percentage points in 2024) and Indiana's 5th Congressional District (Trump won by 17 percentage points) are close.
Both races are closely contested and will reveal some early clues about the shape of the remaining districts. These districts bring together rural and suburban voters and are generally safe districts for Republicans.
There are dozens more similar House districts across the country.
What are the consequences of the national redistricting battle?
Starting in Texas last summer, Republican-dominated states have successively begun to redraw congressional district boundaries in an attempt to win more House seats for their party.
The new district map is based on the idea that the electorate in 2026 will be roughly similar to the electorate that helped Trump win the election in 2024.
