Is the election thermometer turning into a spoiler? Communication scholar: "The waters are getting muddier." Who is responsible for the chaos in the polls?

The 2026 local elections are entering the final sprint. Polls are being thrown out one after another, and the numbers are getting more and more outrageous. Du Shengcong, a communication scholar at Mingchuan University, pointed out that in the same city, the same group of voters, and the same period of time, some people calculated that the blue camp would definitely win, some calculated that the green camp would win a big victory, and some calculated it as five or five waves; supporters picked the ones they liked to see and reposted, politicians picked the quotes that were beneficial to them, and the media then broadcast them with headlines. Opinion polls were originally a thermometer for measuring body temperature, but now they are like a stirrer, muddying the water in the pond.

Du Shengcong mentioned that whether it is Taipei City, Kaohsiung City, Taichung City, or even Hsinchu City, the election poll numbers are very different. Is it a methodological fallacy or bad intentions? He believes that what should really be questioned is the hands hiding behind the numbers. Who is the client? Where does the funding come from? Why do some investigations only appear at critical moments and then disappear after the election? Why are method descriptions never clear? Are you doing these things to deceive traffic for a day or two, or are you really responsible for fairness and justice?

Some people say that voters are not fools and this kind of thing is useless. But he thinks it works, and it works. Opinion polls have both issue-setting and framing effects. Today I tell you that someone is losing the battle, and tomorrow I tell you that someone is coming back to win. After a large number of repeated injections, voters' cognitive framework of the election has been quietly rewritten. Those who believe that someone will win will produce a herd effect; those who feel that their camp is underestimated will mobilize against the trend; politicians and the media replay favorable numbers every day, and supporters' confirmation bias will become more and more profound.

Opinion polls refer to voice volume, which in turn refers to opinion polls. After amplifying the cycle, they are no longer measuring public opinion, but creating it. Opinion polls were originally a tool for society to see clearly, but now they have become smoke that makes it difficult for everyone to see clearly.

He believes that the election will be over, but the debt owed by the polls cannot be written off with the counting of votes. Polls may have errors, and scholars may have different judgments, but standards cannot depend on color. Ballots determine who is elected, and post-election verification determines whose polls are still worth trusting. Thermometers can be inaccurate, but they cannot be used as a stirrup.