Attention in Libya is turning to the form of the executive authority that may take over the management of the next transitional phase, after the discussion moved from the rules regulating the elections to the more difficult question about the chances of reaching a Libyan agreement on a new presidential council that will govern the country during the period before reaching the ballot boxes?
This question increases as the Security Council session approaches on the agreement reached by the “4 + 4” committee at the end of last August, which links the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections to the formation of a unified executive authority, provided that they are held within a period not exceeding 24 months from the date of their formation.
Restructuring the executive authority
The file of the new Presidential Council acquires special sensitivity, due to its connection to the distribution of influence between eastern and western Libya, in light of the continuing division between the “National Unity” government, headed by Abdul Hamid Al-Dabaiba in Tripoli, and the government appointed by the House of Representatives, headed by Osama Hammad, and supported by the General Command of the “National Army” led by Khalifa Haftar.
Member of the Libyan House of Representatives, Ali Al-Takbali, believes that talk about the new authority and elections “still needs some time,” explaining to Asharq Al-Awsat that the steps of the UN mission and the initiative of the US President’s advisor for African and Middle Eastern affairs, Massad Boulos, have not been finally clarified, especially in light of the rejection of the “4 + 4” agreement by political and armed forces in the west of the country.
Talk increased about the possibility of restructuring the executive authority in the wake of the American movements led by Paul, and the contacts that took place between representatives of the General Command and the “unity” government, which, according to political estimates, touched on the arrangements for the next stage and the form of the unified authority.
Local reports linked these moves to possible power-sharing arrangements, including Dabaiba remaining as prime minister, and Saddam Haftar, the deputy commander-in-chief of the National Army, assuming the presidency of the Presidential Council. However, Boulos denied that his country’s moves were based on a “deal between the elites.”
However, the academic researcher in strategic and political studies, Muhammad Mutairid, expects the announcement of a new executive authority, which includes a presidential council and a unified government, in the middle of this month, following the expected briefing by UN envoy Hannah Tetteh before the Security Council.
In his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Mutairid relies on what he describes as intense American contacts between representatives of the General Command and the “unity” government, which dealt with the unification of power and the distribution of some sovereign ministries, noting that the UN mission focused more on the legal framework for the elections, while consensus on the new authority became a political file, which Washington deals with directly.
On the other hand, a member of the Supreme Council of State, Saleh Jaouda, did not rule out that “the mission will turn to a political dialogue committee as a mechanism to form the executive authority,” stressing “his council’s adherence to rejecting the 4+4 committee” and its agreement.
“A cover for power sharing”
The House of Representatives’ approval on September 28 of last year of amendments to the law for electing the head of state, based on the outcomes of the “4 + 4” agreement, seemed to raise many objections and doubts among Libyan politicians, as it was “a cover for sharing power,” according to their description.
In this context, the head of the Political Committee of the Supreme Council of State, Mohamed Moazib, considered that “the approval of these laws was a cover for a power-sharing deal between the active forces, which will be keen to cling to their positions and obstruct the elections.” He suggested that the new executive authority would be announced “at the end of the year or the beginning of next year,” after resolving the file of sovereign positions, which represents one of the most prominent controversial files among the Libyan forces.
Moazib spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat about his impressions regarding the visit of the “Unity” government delegation, which is part of the “4 + 4” committee, to his council, explaining that it focused on passing the electoral part, but it ignored the questions related to the date and mechanism of forming the executive authority, considering that this reinforces speculation about its actual division between representatives of the “Unity” government and the “National Army.”
The amendment to the law on electing the head of state, which was recently approved by the House of Representatives, opened the door to candidacy for military personnel and dual nationals, obliging the winner to renounce foreign citizenship, or resign from military service before taking the constitutional oath. It also canceled the run-off round in the event that one of the candidates obtained an absolute majority, that is, 50 percent plus one vote.
Jaouda believes that these amendments can be appealed, pointing to his council’s objection to the House of Representatives session that approved the agreement, while Maazib considers that passing electoral laws without a broad political consensus may reflect broader arrangements for sharing power between the forces on the ground.
The upcoming test is not limited to naming members of the Presidential Council or the Prime Minister. In this context, the Libyan political analyst, Hossam al-Din al-Abdali, believes that deciding the sovereign positions will be an early indicator of the nature of the upcoming understandings between the two sides of the Libyan division, especially the Central Bank of Libya and the National Oil Corporation, in light of the competition over the management of resources and economic institutions.
Al-Abdali concluded that “the situation may remain calm until the formation of the authority is announced and the names of its members are known,” explaining to Asharq Al-Awsat that “the majority of Libyans are focusing on their living conditions, and hope that the agreement will move the current stalemate, even if the matter is limited to parliamentary elections that produce a parliament that will alleviate their suffering.”
