The Ethiopian federal government is moving to establish a new administration in the Tigray region as part of its moves to confront the opposition front to Abiy Ahmed’s government in the region, which has been witnessing a new conflict since late last September.
This move comes as the Tigray Liberation Front's control over the region declines, and Abiy Ahmed begins a third term as head of government after his party won a majority, according to what was reported by the country's official Ethiopian News Agency.
An Ethiopian source who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday believes that “the interim administration’s step comes to blockade the Front’s movements, restore stability to the region, and prevent any path that threatens the country.” An expert in African affairs who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat said that these will be supported by military operations, warning that the Front may make moves, especially since its withdrawal may be tactical, and thus we may witness new tensions on the borders of Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Abraham Belay, the former head of the interim administration in Tigray, revealed that preparations are underway to establish a new interim administration in the Tigray region, and to pave the way for holding regional elections within a few months.
Belay said in an interview with the Ethiopian News Agency that “the federal government is working to establish a new administrative structure that enables the people of Tigray to manage their affairs themselves, which contributes to restoring peace and stability in the region,” stressing that “the Ethiopian National Defense Forces are currently carrying out operations to cleanse the region of illegal armed forces.” Following these processes, new administrative structures will be organized, starting from the kebele level, with direct community participation.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front, which leads the opposition coalition, said in a statement posted on Facebook on Sunday that it had withdrawn from the capital, and that the regional government would be transferred "temporarily from Mekele, and will work from elsewhere." Despite this withdrawal, “operations are continuing, and a strike carried out by a drone on a camp for displaced people in the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia resulted in the killing of at least 8 people,” according to what a source in a relief organization and a witness told Agence France-Presse on Monday.
Relief sources also spoke of “air strikes and artillery shelling targeting the Tigray region overnight and until Monday morning, killing at least 17 people northwest of Mekele, the capital of the region,” according to Reuters, which said that “government forces exchanged artillery fire with fighters loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.”
The Ethiopian expert in African affairs, Anwar Ibrahim, believes that “this talk about forming a temporary administration for the region is part of the management of the official operational confrontation taking place now,” expecting that “additional developments will continue on the ground in Tigray through operations to achieve that goal.” He added: “The situation is very tense in Tigray, and after the withdrawal of the Tigray Liberation Front, there are those who believe that this withdrawal may be tactical, and there are those who believe that there is very significant government control.”
Battles broke out between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and federal forces on September 23, raising fears of a return to the devastating civil war that the country witnessed between 2020 and 2022, and of the expansion of the scope of the conflict regionally. The battles raise fears of the outbreak of a broader war, especially if the Tigray Liberation Front fighters withdraw across the border into Eritrea.
A bulletin circulated among human rights organizations stated that the air attacks resulted in the killing of at least 17 people northwest of Mekele, the capital of Tigray region, which was controlled by soldiers of the Federal Ethiopian National Defense Forces over the weekend. The bulletin stated that the Ethiopian army and Tigray forces exchanged heavy artillery fire on Monday morning near the Tekze River, next to the town of Mai Tsiberi. She added that air strikes occurred during the night, killing at least nine people in Adowa, and eight others in Sheraro in northwestern Tigray.
On Saturday, the US State Department called on Asmara and Addis Ababa to exercise restraint, warning that any conflict would threaten US cooperation with the two countries.
