China News Service, Haikou, November 6 (Fu Xiaohong, Yuan Yinglei, Zhu Jingjing) In September 2026, an eastern-type super El Niño event has officially formed in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. It is expected to peak in late autumn and early winter, and its intensity has become the strongest since systematic monitoring. What impact will this El Niño have on tropical Hainan Island? How does the public respond?
The impact of El Niño is already showing
Wu Hui, director of the Hainan Provincial Climate Center, said that the impact of this El Niño has actually already appeared. Since the flood season this year, the number of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan Province has been relatively low. The average temperature in the province has continued to be high and the number of high-temperature days has been significantly higher. Among them, the average summer temperature ranks second highest in the same period in history. The average temperature in the province in October broke the record for the same period in history. The average precipitation in the province from May to July in the previous flood season continued to be low, and meteorological droughts repeated. Similar to the typical response of climate anomalies in Hainan during El Niño development years. The average precipitation in the province from August to October in the post-flood season turned to be high, but the spatial and temporal distribution was extremely uneven, and there were many severe regional heavy rain processes. In September, there was even a very severe regional heavy rain process with the fourth strongest comprehensive intensity in the history of the province and the strongest in September.
Wu Hui believes that this reflects that El Niño synergizes with multiple factors to intensify the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events in Hainan Province. At present, the lagging impact of super strong El Niño on Hainan Province needs special attention.
Scientific research has revealed that El Niño’s impact on climate is often out of sync with changes in sea temperature. It takes a certain amount of time for atmospheric circulation to respond and adjust to sea temperature anomalies, and the impact is generally more pronounced in the following year of El Niño.
The Hainan Provincial Climate Center predicts that the average temperature in Hainan Province will be higher from this winter to next spring, but this does not mean that the entire winter will be warmer. There are large fluctuations in cold and warm temperatures in winter, which may be characterized by being significantly warmer in the early stage, cooler in the middle stage, and rapidly warming in the later stage. The impact of low temperature and rainy weather is generally moderate.
In terms of rainfall, Hainan Province is expected to receive slightly more rainfall in winter and slightly less in spring. Among them, periodic meteorological drought may occur in the central, western and southern regions of Hainan Island.
Historical "lessons": Hainan was "tortured" heavily by it
For Hainan, El Niño is not "distant news", but a real economic and people's livelihood account.
Wu Hui introduced that according to statistics since 1961, in the El Niño years that begin in spring and summer, the number of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan that year is relatively small, but the intensity is relatively strong. The probability of less precipitation and more high-temperature days in the flood season increases to varying degrees. The probability of extreme weather and climate events in the following year will also increase.
Looking back at history, the super El Niño event from 2015 to 2016 had a considerable impact on Hainan. In the flood season of 2015, Hainan Island experienced an unusually high number of high-temperature days, a long-lasting and wide-ranging meteorological drought, and the superimposed influence of the strong typhoon "Rainbow"; from winter to the following spring and summer, there were large-scale periodic low-temperature rains, Qingming winds, high-temperature droughts, and extremely severe regional heavy rains. It has put considerable pressure on agriculture, water supply and power operations, and forest fire prevention tasks have also increased.
These historical experiences are more suitable as risk reminders: in the context of El Niño, making preparations in advance for water resources dispatching, agricultural disaster prevention, and ensuring power supply can help reduce adverse impacts.
In the face of a super strong El Niño, how should the public “receive” it?
The Meteorological Department stated that from the perspective of daily life, there will be large fluctuations in temperature and temperature this winter, especially in the mid-term, where there may be significant cooling. The public should pay attention to weather changes in a timely manner, add or remove clothing in a timely manner to prevent respiratory diseases such as colds.
From the perspective of agricultural production, we need to focus on the impact of low temperature and rain in winter and periodic meteorological drought in spring.
However, Wu Hui also reminded that super strong El Niño brings regional and periodic climate trend anomalies, which will increase the probability of extreme weather and climate events, but it does not mean that they will occur anytime and anywhere. It is not appropriate to simply attribute all weather and climate anomalies to El Niño, and do not believe in false information such as "extreme weather forecasts" on the Internet. Climate monitoring, forecasting and disaster warnings should be based on official channels, proactively screen out rumors, and do not believe or spread rumors.
Wu Hui said that under the superposition of climate warming and El Niño, high temperatures, heavy rains, and periodic droughts may become more frequent. The public should update traditional weather experience, avoid the fluke mentality of "no disasters in previous years, no worries this year", and integrate disaster prevention preparations into daily life. Actively check forecasts and warnings before traveling, outdoor work, or short-distance travel, and make reasonable adjustments to itineraries and work plans to avoid risks. Be familiar with low-lying areas, flash flood hazard points, dangerous slope rocks, rivers and ditches and other risk areas around your residence and workplace. Do not approach dangerous areas while local warning signals are in effect.
