
市場權衡俄烏與伊朗談判進展,以及衝突對石油供應的潛在干擾
國際油價週二下跌約1%,布蘭特原油收每桶103.60美元,WTI收96.09美元,均創近四週以來最低。市場關注俄烏與伊朗和平談判進展,以及美國期中選舉對美國國會控制權的影響。
AI-generated summary
國際油價週二下跌約1%,布蘭特原油收每桶103.60美元,WTI收96.09美元,均創近四週以來最低。市場權衡結束烏克蘭與伊朗戰爭的談判進展,以及對近期兩場衝突中的攻擊行動可能進一步干擾石油供應的憂慮。
國際油價週二(3日)下跌約1%,降至近4週以來最低水準。市場正在權衡結束烏克蘭與伊朗戰爭的談判進展,以及對近期兩場衝突中的攻擊行動可能進一步干擾石油供應的憂慮。
此外,全球也正關注美國期中選舉,觀察美國總統川普所屬的共和黨能否在他第二個任期剩餘時間內,繼續掌控美國國會。民調與無黨派分析人士預期,民主黨將奪回眾議院控制權,但參議院的選舉結果仍充滿不確定性。
布蘭特原油期貨下跌1.17美元,跌幅1%,收在每桶103.60美元,創10月7日以來最低收盤價。
美國紐約西德州中級原油(WTI)下跌37美分,收在每桶96.09美元,創10月14日以來最低水準。
一名伊朗高階官員告訴《路透》,伊朗與美國距離達成結束戰爭的協議仍相當遙遠;與此同時,調停方卡達正加強外交斡旋,試圖避免美國期中選舉後衝突進一步升級。
卡達外交部發言人表示,美國與伊朗仍致力於調停工作,目前正在審議旨在彌合雙方分歧的提案。
荷蘭國際集團(ING)在一份報告中表示:「儘管出現這些正面訊號,但現在就認為衝突升級的風險已經消退,可能還為時過早。不過,有一點很明確,那就是和平談判若出現強烈的進展訊號,將意味著油價還有進一步下跌的空間。」
美國在夜間對伊朗格什姆島(Qeshm Island)發動空襲。一名美國官員表示,這次攻擊的目標是曾被用來攻擊美國資產的地對空飛彈。另一名官員則表示,這次攻擊似乎規模有限,並不代表美國將恢復大規模作戰行動。
俄羅斯克里姆林宮證實,俄羅斯將於11月10日至11日在阿拉伯聯合大公國阿布達比,與烏克蘭及美國舉行三方和平談判。如果俄羅斯與烏克蘭達成協議,結束這場由莫斯科於2022年發動的入侵行動,俄羅斯可能因此增加石油出口。
然而,在即將舉行談判之際,俄羅斯對烏克蘭能源基礎設施發動猛烈轟炸,動用數十枚飛彈及數百架無人機,導致烏克蘭大片地區電力中斷。另一方面,烏克蘭一架無人機在夜間攻擊俄羅斯雅羅斯拉夫爾市(Yaroslavl)一座大型煉油廠,造成廠區起火。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
若俄烏與伊朗和平談判取得強烈進展,國際油價可能進一步下跌
Possible · Within weeks

Wu Zaiyi, president of the Taiwan Institute of Comprehensive Economic Research, pointed out that the conflict in the Middle East has pushed up international gas prices. If fully reflected, domestic barreled gas prices will soar more than double. He suggested that the government reduce the gas excise tax by 50% and prepare an additional budget of NT$8.4 billion to share the cost of price freezes and price increases by CNPC and Formosa Petrochemical to safeguard people's livelihood and long-term supply security.

Executive President Zhuo Rongtai attended the Legislative Yuan to report on the 115-year general budget and supplementary budget, emphasizing that stabilizing oil and electricity will keep people's living prices stable without increasing the burden of people's lives. He hopes that the Legislative Yuan will put people's lives in mind. Eight major industrial and commercial groups jointly issued a statement in support of subsidizing CNPC and Taipower, and put forward two major suggestions: reasonably subsidizing policy losses and establishing a reasonable and transparent price mechanism.

China Resources Recycling Group launched its first large-scale new energy resource recycling project in Jiuquan, Gansu. The first phase of the project focuses on the recycling and remanufacturing of decommissioned wind power equipment and is expected to be completed in April 2027. After completion, it will have the ability to dispose of 300 wind turbine units annually.

China National Energy Group spokesperson Zhao Zhe revealed that the group's coal production and sales, power generation and heat supply all increased in the first three quarters of this year, and its operating income increased by 5.2% year-on-year. The Group is accelerating the construction of major projects such as the "Shagohuang" base and offshore wind power, and is committed to ensuring energy supply in winter.

Xinrong District, Datong, Shanxi Province, has successfully got rid of the traditional model of "one coal dominates" by developing photovoltaic power generation and new energy storage industries. New energy projects represented by Yuelong Photovoltaic Power Station and Herong Energy Storage Power Station not only achieve efficient transmission and consumption of green electricity, but also increase the income of local villagers through land transfer and employment.

According to the State Administration for Market Regulation, my country has formulated and implemented 150 national and industry standards for new energy storage, forming a full-chain standard system. At present, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage projects exceeds 153 GW/396 GWh, accounting for more than 50% of the global market share.